104 Liberty Ln · Venus, TX 76084

$315,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,011 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2017 6,534 sqft lot Est $308k · at est. $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fabulous Home Built in 2017 with Incredible Location within Midlothian ISD!! Chef's Eat-in Kitchen with Range-Oven, Granite Counter-tops, Stained Concrete Floors throughout the 1st Floor, Black Appliances, Breakfast Bar, Custom Cabinets & Room to Entertain any Occasion. Just Over 2,000 sqft with 3 Beds, 2.1 Full Baths, Main Open Living Concept, Recessed Lighting, New Fixtures, Large Dining & Oversized Master Suite, Gameroom Upstairs. Master includes Walk In Closet, Soaking Tub, Separate Shower, Ceramic Tile in All Wet Areas. Backyard Perfect for Outdoor Entertaining with Extended Patio Deck & Large Private Backyard with Extra Storage Building. Conveniently located to Restaurants, Shopping, Parks & Schools!!

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Granite countertops
• 6,534 sq ft lot

Tags

• CHEF INSPIRED EAT IN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• BREAKFAST BAR SEATING
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• STAINED CONCRETE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Restrictions: Deed
• Financial info: Accepted financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA Loan, Other
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee; Association fee covers full use of facilities and management fees; HOA managed by Legacy SW Property Mgmt

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener (garage faces front); 2 covered parking spaces; Concrete driveway
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Cable available; City power (electric)
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two-story; Entry level information not specified; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Built in 2017; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Wood fencing; Landscaped; Interior lot; Located in a subdivision (Patriot Estates Ph 2); Community mailbox; Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (Primary bedroom located on 2nd level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Concrete
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; Decorative lighting; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Walk-in closet(s); Two living areas; One dining area; Total room count: 5; Levels: Two
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-616 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (34.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Irvin El (math 49% / reading 47%, grade D, #971 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 650 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 22% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,239 (34.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.38%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,683
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Presidents Way	0.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,135 (+6%)	6mo	$300,000	$141	78
106 Rushmore Ln	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,135 (+6%)	4mo	$293,000	$137	72
153 Jefferson Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5	2,228 (+11%)	0mo	$289,500	$130	71
137 Jefferson Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	2,228 (+11%)	6mo	$288,000	$129	64
203 Julian Davis Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,189 (+9%)	3mo	$321,900	$147	50
202 Julian Davis Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,189 (+9%)	2mo	$359,900	$164	50
206 Julian Davis Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,189 (+9%)	3mo	$307,900	$141	50
426 Gib Woodall Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,189 (+9%)	6mo	$344,900	$158	43
414 Watson Ct	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,784 (-11%)	6mo	$329,900	$185	43
419 Watson Ct	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,784 (-11%)	6mo	$314,900	$177	41
321 Julian Davis Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,784 (-11%)	2mo	$329,900	$185	40
502 Monroe Jackson St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,791 (-11%)	2mo	$274,000	$153	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $75,810
• Equity at exit: $224,916

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $246,755
• Equity at exit: $433,383

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,253 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$575 /mo · $6,906/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-616

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,032

Max offer price $206,239

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
135 Houston Pl Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,029	$1.28	1d	1	0.05mi
112 Liberty Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$2,309	$1.39	43d	1	0.05mi
108 Rushmore Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$1,969	$1.19	24d	1	0.21mi
640-644 Wheatfield DR Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,100	$1.09	1d	1	0.33mi
170 Kennedy Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1661	$2,300	$1.38	1d	1	0.33mi
131 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,169	$1.31	22d	1	0.38mi
628 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1483	$2,200	$1.48	1d	1	0.38mi
120 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,149	$1.29	43d	1	0.42mi
720 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1926	$2,200	$1.14	7d	1	0.45mi
101 Hancock St Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,929	$1.09	1d	1	0.48mi
201 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1626	$2,195	$1.35	19d	1	0.57mi
208 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,330	$1.31	11d	1	0.59mi
214 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	43d	1	0.59mi
147 Sammy Fowler Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,250	$1.33	1d	1	0.79mi
201 John Laurens Dr Venus, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1975	$2,250	$1.14	1d	1	0.81mi
428 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,150	$1.21	24d	1	0.84mi
523 Bennie Leonard St Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,350	$1.39	1d	1	0.86mi
512 Albert Anthony St Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,990	$1.20	22d	1	0.88mi
358 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,995	$1.20	2d	1	0.88mi
325 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2189	$2,325	$1.06	12d	1	0.88mi
313 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	7d	1	1.04mi
315 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,515	$1.16	3d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $315,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,906 · $575/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,906 · $575/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,037
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$6,906
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,163
• − Management: −$2,163
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$13,022
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,125
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midlothian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830600
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $85,068
• Composite: 48.22/100
• National rank: #2165
• State rank: #94 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Venus, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+45.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $315,000 NTREIS
• 2021-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-09-18 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-08-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-08-27 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-08-25 Listed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2017-06-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2017-04-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2017-04-07 Listed $211,900 NTREIS
• 2017-04-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2017-03-09 Price Changed $216,900 NTREIS
• 2017-02-24 Listed $215,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+45.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,906 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.