300 Out Yonder #167 · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$189,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,160 sqft · Condo public records · 103 Days on market

Built 1976 $164/sqft · 26% below area Est $258k · 26% under $420/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Condo has been freshly painted and updated. All new kitchen appliances. New Carpet. Condo offers 2 private patio areas. The condo is be sold completely furnished including televisions and seller has purchased a Residential Home Warranty to be transfered to the buyer. Private front porch sitting area perfect for morning coffee and relaxing and a back patio deck perfect for grilling. Condo is directly across the street from the swimming pool and across the road from the Horseshoe Bay Resort and golf course. Resort Airport near. Close to Marble Falls Medical Facilities.

Key facts

• $420 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-351 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (32.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Packsaddle El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 596 students, 83% FRL); Llano J H (math 42% / reading 45%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 423 students, 65% FRL); Llano H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 552 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1236 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,962 (32.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.91%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $258,335
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -26.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-19,014
• Equity at exit: $64,289

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-9,164
• Equity at exit: $85,019

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1236
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,727 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,638/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$420
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,171

Max offer price $127,962

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-243	-5% $-297	+0% $-351	+5% $-404	+10% $-458
Rent	-10% $-487	-5% $-419	+0% $-351	+5% $-282	+10% $-214
Rate	-1.0pp $-255	-0.5pp $-302	base $-351	+0.5pp $-400	+1.0pp $-450

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
307 Poker Chip Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,995	$1.72	25d	1	0.04mi
300 Out Yonder #172 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1321	$1,275	$0.97	45d	1	0.04mi
400 Hi There #101 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,900	$1.64	45d	1	0.06mi
307 Out Yonder #8 Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0	1.5	884	$1,599	$1.81	45d	1	0.08mi
400 Green Leaf Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,224	$1.27	25d	2	0.32mi
400 Green Leaf Unit 319-202 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1141	$1,349	$1.18	25d	1	0.32mi
407 Green Leaf Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0	1.0	784	$999	$1.27	45d	1	0.34mi
307 Crestview Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,800	$1.45	0d	1	0.50mi
200 Full Moon Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1171	$1,800	$1.54	14d	1	0.56mi
1210 Hi Stirrup #209 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,500	$1.20	45d	1	0.61mi
1206 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,200	$0.96	45d	1	0.61mi
100 Bay Point Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$1,950	$1.57	14d	1	0.66mi
100 Bay Point Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0	1.0	1070	$1,650	$1.54	45d	1	0.66mi
412 Short Circuit #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1333	$1,650	$1.24	45d	1	0.67mi
100 Bay Point Dr #7 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$2,150	$1.73	12d	1	0.68mi
106 Dawn #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,600	$1.47	25d	1	0.71mi
906 Hi Cir N Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,250	$1.25	45d	1	0.74mi
104 Cove E #107 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	25d	1	0.92mi
101 W Bank #14 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$3,500	$2.60	45d	1	1.06mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $420 · $5,040/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $189,900 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   price $189,900 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $195,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $195,000 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $206,250 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $206,250 Active 84 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $206,250 Active 83 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $206,250 Active 82 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $206,250 Active 81 DOM
19. 2026-04-21
    price $206,250 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Condo has been freshly painted and updated. All new kitchen appliances. New Carpet. Condo offers 2 private patio areas. The condo is be sold completely furnished including televisions and seller has purchased a Residential Home Warranty to be transfered to the buyer. Private front porch sitting area perfect for morning coffee and relaxing and a back patio deck perfect for grilling. Condo is directly across the street from the swimming pool and across the road from the Horseshoe Bay Resort and golf course. Resort Airport near. Close to Marble Falls Medical Facilities.

20. 2026-04-20
    status Active 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Condo has been freshly painted and updated. All new kitchen appliances. New Carpet. Condo offers 2 private patio areas. The condo is be sold completely furnished including televisions and seller has purchased a Residential Home Warranty to be transfered to the buyer. Private front porch sitting area perfect for morning coffee and relaxing and a back patio deck perfect for grilling. Condo is directly across the street from the swimming pool and across the road from the Horseshoe Bay Resort and golf course. Resort Airport near. Close to Marble Falls Medical Facilities.

21. 2026-04-20
    price $200,000 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Condo has been freshly painted and updated. All new kitchen appliances. New Carpet. Condo offers 2 private patio areas. The condo is be sold completely furnished including televisions and seller has purchased a Residential Home Warranty to be transfered to the buyer. Private front porch sitting area perfect for morning coffee and relaxing and a back patio deck perfect for grilling. Condo is directly across the street from the swimming pool and across the road from the Horseshoe Bay Resort and golf course. Resort Airport near. Close to Marble Falls Medical Facilities.

22. 2026-03-23
    historical Active Under Contract 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Condo has been freshly painted and updated. All new kitchen appliances. New Carpet. Condo offers 2 private patio areas. The condo is be sold completely furnished including televisions and seller has purchased a Residential Home Warranty to be transfered to the buyer. Private front porch sitting area perfect for morning coffee and relaxing and a back patio deck perfect for grilling. Condo is directly across the street from the swimming pool and across the road from the Horseshoe Bay Resort and golf course. Resort Airport near. Close to Marble Falls Medical Facilities.

23. 2026-03-10
    listed $216,250 Active 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Condo has been freshly painted and updated. All new kitchen appliances. New Carpet. Condo offers 2 private patio areas. The condo is be sold completely furnished including televisions and seller has purchased a Residential Home Warranty to be transfered to the buyer. Private front porch sitting area perfect for morning coffee and relaxing and a back patio deck perfect for grilling. Condo is directly across the street from the swimming pool and across the road from the Horseshoe Bay Resort and golf course. Resort Airport near. Close to Marble Falls Medical Facilities.

24. 2015-07-15
    soldstatus
25. 2015-07-10
    soldstatus 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Stylish High Vista condo at an incredible price! Located across the street from the homeowners pool. Vaulted lower level living room w/ fireplace & deck access. Living open to dining. Galley style kitchen w/ breakfast bar. Upstairs is a modern bathroom, master bedroom & a bedroom/loft overlooking the living room. Complex is centrally located w/ quick access to nearby Horseshoe Bay Resort amenities. Great condo for weekends, vacations or year round enjoyment! Kitchen refrigerator will convey to the buyer. FEMA - Unknown Restrictions: Yes Sprinkler Sys:Yes

26. 2015-03-09
    listed $112,000 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Stylish High Vista condo at an incredible price! Located across the street from the homeowners pool. Vaulted lower level living room w/ fireplace & deck access. Living open to dining. Galley style kitchen w/ breakfast bar. Upstairs is a modern bathroom, master bedroom & a bedroom/loft overlooking the living room. Complex is centrally located w/ quick access to nearby Horseshoe Bay Resort amenities. Great condo for weekends, vacations or year round enjoyment! Kitchen refrigerator will convey to the buyer. FEMA - Unknown Restrictions: Yes Sprinkler Sys:Yes

27. 2014-02-13
    soldstatus
28. 2014-02-12
    soldstatus
29. 2013-11-12
    listed $98,200
30. 2012-12-07
    soldstatus
31. 2012-11-08
    soldstatus
32. 2012-07-27
    listed $99,000
33. 2007-06-21
    soldstatus
34. 2006-06-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,638 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,475 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$837/yr (+$70/mo · 31.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,638
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,658
• − Management: −$1,658
• − HOA: −$5,040
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$7,383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,772
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+108.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $206,250 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $200,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-23 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $216,250 Unlock MLS
• 2015-07-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-07-10 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2015-03-09 Listed $112,000 Unlock MLS
• 2014-02-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-02-12 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2013-11-12 Listed $98,200 Unlock MLS
• 2012-12-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-11-08 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2012-07-27 Listed $99,000 Unlock MLS
• 2007-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,638 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.