402 Hernandez · El Cenizo, TX 78046

$60,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 620 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 263 Days on market

Built 1970 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Almost 1 acre at 11,640 sqft lot, this 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom home is located in El Cenizo, Texas. This solid cement block home offers long-lasting construction and endless potential. The property needs some TLC, making it a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to customize.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 262 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($983 rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,144 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• United ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #568 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 482 active listings in the ZIP; 1,448 units permitted in Webb County in 2024 (245 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Webb County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.88%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $13,370
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $41,419
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78046

• Home prices YoY: -13.0%
• Active inventory: 482
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $983 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $896/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $524

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $60,000 Active 263 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 262 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 261 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 260 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 259 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $60,000 Active 257 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 256 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $60,000 Active 254 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 253 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $60,000 Active 252 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 251 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 247 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 246 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 245 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 244 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $60,000 Active 243 DOM
17. 2025-12-24
    listed $60,000 Active 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Almost 1 acre at 11,640 sqft lot, this 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom home is located in El Cenizo, Texas. This solid cement block home offers long-lasting construction and endless potential. The property needs some TLC, making it a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to customize.

18. 2025-09-29
    listed $60,000 New 310-char remark

    Show marketing remark (310 chars)

    Almost 1 acre at 11,640 sq ft lot, this 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom home is located in El Cenizo, Webb County, Texas 78046. This Solid Cement Block home offers long - lasting construction and endless potential. The property needs some TLC, making it a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to customize.

19. 2025-09-06
    listed $60,000 Active
20. 2025-06-23
    listed $60,000 Active
21. 2025-05-29
    soldstatus
22. 2004-07-19
    soldstatus
23. 1995-03-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $896 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,098 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$202/yr (+$17/mo · 22.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$896
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$944
• − Management: −$944
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $3,607
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$866
• After-tax cash flow: $3,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: United ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843650
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,780
• Composite: 28.02/100
• National rank: #6848
• State rank: #568 of 826 in TX

Livability — El Cenizo

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1144
• US rank: #20153

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Cenizo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,965

Population outlook (Webb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 301,387 people
• By 2030: 316,307 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 345,636 · +14.7%
• By 2050: 370,647 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 413,907 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 416,458 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 53% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 92%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 9% English-only · Spanish 91%

Political lean MEDSL · Webb

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.5% · R 50.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.6pp toward R · 2008: 43.4pp · 2024: -2.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.2 2020: D+23.3 2016: D+51.6 2012: D+54.0 2008: D+43.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.36%
• Current HPI: 196.8153
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-24 Listed $60,000 LAOR
• 2025-09-29 Listed $60,000 LERA
• 2025-09-06 Listed $60,000 LAOR
• 2025-06-23 Listed $60,000 LAOR
• 2025-05-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-07-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-03-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $896 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.