Is 2040 Giant Cactus in San Antonio, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 5.4% cap rate and $-274/mo modeled cash flow at a $195,840 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2040 Giant Cactus?

The modeled cap rate is 5.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,543/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 41.06

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +9.1/30.0
ARV discount +9.0/15.0
Appreciation +6.0/10.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Livability +4.0/5.0
1% rule +2.9/10.0
DSCR +2.5/10.0
Schools +2.0/10.0
Rent growth +0.7/5.0

$195,840

2040 Giant Cactus · San Antonio, TX 78221

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,206 sqft · SingleFamily · 133 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2,831 sqft lot $162/sqft · at area comps Est $203k · at est. $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Introducing The Ranger, a charming two-story floor plan located in the Sonora community in San Antonio, TX. This spacious home offers 1206 square feet of living space, featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, perfect for families or those seeking room to grow. Instead of a traditional garage, The Ranger offers a convenient driveway, adding ease of access and extra parking space. The exterior is available in two elevation options, both showcasing durable and attractive James Hardie siding for long-lasting curb appeal. As you approach the home, a welcoming patio greets you, providing a cozy spot to relax or enjoy the outdoors.

Key facts

James hardie siding
Welcoming patio
Two story floor plan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $196k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (20.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (21.2% below list).
Recommended offer: $154k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Julian C Gallardo El (math 13% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,805 of 4,322 statewide, top 89%, 544 students, 87% FRL); Julius L Matthey Middle (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 604 students, 92% FRL); Southside H S (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,685 students, 85% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents falling (-7.2%/yr); 519 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 56d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 3→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,329 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.79% ✗
Cap rate: 5.38%
Cash-on-cash: -3.27%
DSCR: 0.85
GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $202,750
List price: $195,840
Delta: -3.41%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14711 Star Cactus	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	4mo	$200,500	$166	95
2003 Organ Pipe Cactus	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	4mo	$207,500	$172	94
14707 Star Cactus	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	6mo	$205,000	$170	93
2213 Organ Pipe Cactus	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	3mo	$217,030	$180	91
2062 Zephyr Lily	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	6mo	$207,000	$172	90
2042 Zephyr Lily	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	8mo	$202,000	$167	90
2054 Zephyr Lily	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	8mo	$207,500	$172	90
2074 Zephyr Lily	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	7mo	$202,000	$167	88
2225 Organ Pipe Cactus	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	6mo	$208,000	$172	87
14722 Candelabra Cactus	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	6mo	$204,500	$170	87
2230 Organ Pipe Cactus	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	7mo	$210,500	$175	87
2131 Zephyr Lily	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	7mo	$202,000	$167	86

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.03% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -2.8%
Equity multiple: 0.85×
Total profit: $-8,181
Equity at exit: $77,546

10-year hold

IRR: 0.4%
Equity multiple: 1.06×
Total profit: $3,033
Equity at exit: $111,900

Cash invested: $54,835 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 28 active · 20 under contract
Months of supply: 7.3 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $201,950 ($180/sqft)
Median days on market: 146 d
This list price: 39% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -6.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78221

Home prices YoY: 0.8%
Rents YoY: -7.2%
Active inventory: 519
Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,543 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,027
Tax est. 1.5%: −$245 /mo · $2,938/yr
Insurance: −$82
Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
HOA: −$15
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
Net cashflow: $-274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,891

Max offer price $156,132

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-139	-5% $-207	+0% $-274	+5% $-342	+10% $-410
Rent	-10% $-396	-5% $-335	+0% $-274	+5% $-213	+10% $-152
Rate	-1.0pp $-176	-0.5pp $-225	base $-274	+0.5pp $-325	+1.0pp $-377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $48,960
Closing costs: $5,875
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15435 Belen St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$1,350	$1.88	139d	1	0.43mi
15950 Flores Curv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,650	$1.36	6d	1	0.85mi
1030 Snedeker DR San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,499	$1.00	119d	1	1.01mi
13502 Sneed Ter San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,495	$1.15	0d	1	1.37mi
13115 Ashworth Blvd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,600	$1.11	0d	1	1.39mi
1038 Janzen Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,375	$1.22	23d	1	1.39mi
1115 Janzen Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	139d	1	1.42mi
1019 Magrum Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,395	$1.07	55d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Possession at closing/funding
Financial info: Down payment resources not indicated
HOA & community: Mandatory HOAHOA fee $180 annuallyAssociation transfer fee $200

Exterior

Parking: No parking details provided
Security: Smoke alarmCarbon monoxide detector
Utilities: Water service: SAWSSewer service: SAWSElectricity: CPSGas: CPSHERS rated
Home design: New construction by D.R. HortonSiding and cement fiber exteriorSlab foundationComposition roofSubdivision: SONORALot dimensions approximately 30' x 95'
Construction: Built new (builder plans used for square footage source)
Exterior features: Covered patioPrivacy fenceSprinkler systemStreet paved with curbs and streetlights

Interior

Kitchen: Stove/RangeMicrowaveDisposalDishwasherIce maker connectionKitchen dimensions approximately 9 x 9
Bedrooms: Master bedroom with walk-in closet and full bathBedroom 2Bedroom 3All bedrooms on upper levelMaster bedroom dimensions approximately 12 x 10Bedroom 2 dimensions approximately 10 x 9Bedroom 3 dimensions approximately 10 x 10
Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsMaster bath with shower only and single vanity (approx. 8 x 6)
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
Interior features: Open floor plan1 living areaSeparate dining roomUtility room insideAttic with pull-down stairsCable TV availableSmoke alarmCarbon monoxide detectorElectric water heaterSolid countertopsDouble pane windows
Laundry & utility: Washer connectionDryer connectionLaundry room on main levelUtility room approx. 5 x 6

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

days on market $195,840 Active 133 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $195,840 Active 132 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $195,840 Active 131 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $195,840 Active 130 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $195,840 Active 129 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $195,840 Active 128 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $195,840 Active 127 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $195,840 Active 126 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $195,840 Active 125 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $195,840 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $195,840 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $195,840 Active 122 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $195,840 Active 121 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $195,840 Active 115 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $195,840 Active 114 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $195,840 Active 113 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $195,840 Active 110 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $195,840 Active 109 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $195,840 Active 108 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $195,840 Active 107 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $195,840 Active 106 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $195,840 Active 104 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $195,840 Active 103 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $195,840 Active 102 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $195,840 Active 101 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $195,840 Active 100 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $195,840 Active 99 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $195,840 Active 98 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $195,840 Active 97 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $195,840 Active 96 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $195,840 Active 95 DOM
2026-08-15

statusdays on market $195,840 Active 94 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $195,840 Price Change 93 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $195,840 Price Change 92 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $195,840 Price Change 91 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $195,840 Price Change 90 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $195,840 Price Change 89 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $195,840 Price Change 88 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $195,840 Price Change 87 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $195,840 Price Change 85 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $195,840 Price Change 84 DOM
2026-08-04

pricestatusdays on market $195,840 Price Change 83 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $204,839 Active 82 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $204,839 Active 79 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $204,839 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $204,839 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $204,839 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $204,839 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $204,839 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $204,839 Active 70 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 3 d/yr ≥109°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $18,519
− Mortgage interest: −$10,970
− Property taxes: −$2,938
− Insurance: −$2,482
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,482
− Management: −$1,482
− HOA: −$180
− Depreciation: −$5,697
Taxable loss: −$6,710

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,610
After-tax cash flow: $-1,683/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This charming two-story home in San Antonio, TX, is move-in ready with a modern design and excellent condition. It offers a spacious floor plan, a welcoming patio, and a well-maintained exterior. Potential buyers and tenants will appreciate the home's curb appeal and functional layout.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 20/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Julian C Gallardo El F TX #3,805/4,322 Nat'l #34,936/41,679 Middle Julius L Matthey Middle F TX #1,387/1,662 Nat'l #11,464/14,009 High Southside H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Southside ISD
NCES district ID: 4840920
Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $43,526
Composite: 17.68/100
National rank: #9027
State rank: #771 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 80/100

Livability — San Antonio

Score: 80/100
State rank: #31
US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Bexar County · 2,336,851 people
City population: 1,806,925
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Population (ZIP): 42,178
Household income: $63,811
Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 28% White 9% Native American 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 74%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 54%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 2.03%
Current HPI: 251.1635
Rent YoY: ▼ -7.21%
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-05-13 Listed $205,840 LERA

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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