566 Bliss · Fort Clark Springs, TX 78832

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured public records · 238 Days on market

3,267 sqft lot $70/sqft · 22% below area Est $103k · 22% under $106/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 3,267 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Listed 237 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($928 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.0% in Fort Clark Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#409 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Brackett ISD (town): math 34% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #363 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Kinney County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.62%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,752
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -22.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.68% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $29,510
• Equity at exit: $48,691

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.62×
• Total profit: $81,165
• Equity at exit: $86,950

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78832

• Home prices YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $928 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $606/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$106
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $771

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $169	-5% $146	+0% $124	+5% $101	+10% $78
Rent	-10% $50	-5% $87	+0% $124	+5% $160	+10% $197
Rate	-1.0pp $164	-0.5pp $144	base $124	+0.5pp $103	+1.0pp $82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $106 · $1,272/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $80,000 Active 238 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 237 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 236 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 235 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 234 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 232 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 231 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 229 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 228 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 227 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 226 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 222 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 221 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 220 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 219 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 218 DOM
17. 2025-10-24
    listed $80,000 New
18. 2004-04-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $606 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,464 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$858/yr (+$72/mo · 141.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥107°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$606
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$891
• − Management: −$891
• − HOA: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $265
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$64
• After-tax cash flow: $1,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brackett ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811070
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,912
• Composite: 35.28/100
• National rank: #4973
• State rank: #363 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Clark Springs

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #409
• US rank: #8467

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Clark Springs, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,140

Population outlook (Kinney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,487 people
• By 2030: 3,434 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 3,396 · -2.6%
• By 2050: 3,458 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 3,472 · -0.4%
• By 2100: 2,845 · -18.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 45% Two or more races 18% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 42%

Political lean MEDSL · Kinney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.4% · R 74.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.7pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+25.1 2008: R+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.68%
• Current HPI: 119.7891
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-24 Listed $80,000 LERA
• 2004-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $606 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.