1770 Lake Pl Unit 1770C · Venice Gardens, FL 34293

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,194 sqft · Condo public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1984 $565/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome to Villa Nova Shores - where comfort, convenience, and value meet in the heart of Venice. This spacious, turnkey-furnished end-unit condo offers an exceptional opportunity at one of the area’s most attractive price points. From the moment you arrive, you’ll appreciate the thoughtfully designed layout and inviting setting. A secure, covered entrance shared with just one neighboring unit provides both privacy and peace of mind, while your carport connects directly to a covered walkway leading through a charming courtyard filled with lush greenery. Inside, the open-concept floor plan is both functional and welcoming. The kitchen featu

Key facts

• $565 HOA
• Parking
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#537 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Garden Elementary School (math 71% / reading 69%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 513 students, 52% FRL); Venice Senior High School (math 67% / reading 61%, grade B-, #86 of 667 statewide, top 13%, 2,584 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1247 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $116k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.97%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-16,557
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-15,044
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34293

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 1247
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,281 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,307/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$565
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,999

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $565 · $6,780/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   price $159,900
3. 2026-03-09
   price $164,900
4. 2026-02-24
   price $169,900
5. 2026-02-10
   listed $175,000 Active
6. 2003-10-10
   soldstatus $116,500
7. 2002-07-17
   soldstatus $93,000
8. 2001-07-25
   soldstatus $83,000
9. 1985-05-01
   soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,307 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,327 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$20/yr (+$2/mo · 1.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,369
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,307
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,190
• − Management: −$2,190
• − HOA: −$6,780
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $496
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$119
• After-tax cash flow: $2,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Venice Gardens

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #537
• US rank: #10074

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 50,278
• Household income: $90,038
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 548.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -355.64%
• Current HPI: 270.5242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+207.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $164,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $116,500 Public Records
• 2002-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 2001-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 1985-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,307 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.