296 Keystone Rd · Stanley, VA 22851

$229,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 823 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1938 0.44 ac lot $278/sqft · 6% above area Est $216k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This adorable 2-bedroom, 2-bath bungalow is in excellent condition and full of thoughtful updates! Located just outside the town limits of Stanley, this home offers a spacious open yard with beautiful mountain views—perfect for peaceful country living. Lovingly maintained, the home features fresh interior paint, a new UV water filtration system (2023), hot water heater (2019), all-new light fixtures (2025), updated shower heads and faucets, and refinished hardwood floors. The living room includes newly built custom shelving that provides ample storage while doubling as a unique built-in kennel for two large dogs, complete with a small electric fireplace for added warmth and a dedicated space for food and water bowls—perfect for pet lovers! Outside, enjoy raised herb beds, a generous yard, and a charming front porch, ideal for relaxing with your morning coffee while taking in the scenic surroundings. This home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and charm in a serene setting.

Key facts

• Light fixtures
• Open yard
• Hot water heater

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• OPEN YARD
• UV WATER FILTRATION SYSTEM
• HOT WATER HEATER
• LIGHT FIXTURES
• UPDATED SHOWER HEADS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.7% in Stanley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#257 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Page County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #96 of 131 in VA (top 73%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Page County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Page County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $152k; list at $229k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,841 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.96%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,948
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: 6.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
650 Honeyville Rd	0.46mi	2/2.0	900 (+9%)	3mo	$235,000	$261	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $141,497
• Equity at exit: $206,301

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.29×
• Total profit: $403,173
• Equity at exit: $444,897

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22851

• Home prices YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,038 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $585/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,703

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $229,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   status $229,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 1017-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

   This adorable 2-bedroom, 2-bath bungalow is in excellent condition and full of thoughtful updates! Located just outside the town limits of Stanley, this home offers a spacious open yard with beautiful mountain views—perfect for peaceful country living. Lovingly maintained, the home features fresh interior paint, a new UV water filtration system (2023), hot water heater (2019), all-new light fixtures (2025), updated shower heads and faucets, and refinished hardwood floors. The living room includes newly built custom shelving that provides ample storage while doubling as a unique built-in kennel for two large dogs, complete with a small electric fireplace for added warmth and a dedicated space for food and water bowls—perfect for pet lovers! Outside, enjoy raised herb beds, a generous yard, and a charming front porch, ideal for relaxing with your morning coffee while taking in the scenic surroundings. This home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and charm in a serene setting.

4. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Under Contract 1017-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

   This adorable 2-bedroom, 2-bath bungalow is in excellent condition and full of thoughtful updates! Located just outside the town limits of Stanley, this home offers a spacious open yard with beautiful mountain views—perfect for peaceful country living. Lovingly maintained, the home features fresh interior paint, a new UV water filtration system (2023), hot water heater (2019), all-new light fixtures (2025), updated shower heads and faucets, and refinished hardwood floors. The living room includes newly built custom shelving that provides ample storage while doubling as a unique built-in kennel for two large dogs, complete with a small electric fireplace for added warmth and a dedicated space for food and water bowls—perfect for pet lovers! Outside, enjoy raised herb beds, a generous yard, and a charming front porch, ideal for relaxing with your morning coffee while taking in the scenic surroundings. This home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and charm in a serene setting.

5. 2026-04-15
   listed $229,000 Active 1017-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

   This adorable 2-bedroom, 2-bath bungalow is in excellent condition and full of thoughtful updates! Located just outside the town limits of Stanley, this home offers a spacious open yard with beautiful mountain views—perfect for peaceful country living. Lovingly maintained, the home features fresh interior paint, a new UV water filtration system (2023), hot water heater (2019), all-new light fixtures (2025), updated shower heads and faucets, and refinished hardwood floors. The living room includes newly built custom shelving that provides ample storage while doubling as a unique built-in kennel for two large dogs, complete with a small electric fireplace for added warmth and a dedicated space for food and water bowls—perfect for pet lovers! Outside, enjoy raised herb beds, a generous yard, and a charming front porch, ideal for relaxing with your morning coffee while taking in the scenic surroundings. This home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and charm in a serene setting.

6. 2026-04-15
   listed $229,000 Active 1017-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

   This adorable 2-bedroom, 2-bath bungalow is in excellent condition and full of thoughtful updates! Located just outside the town limits of Stanley, this home offers a spacious open yard with beautiful mountain views—perfect for peaceful country living. Lovingly maintained, the home features fresh interior paint, a new UV water filtration system (2023), hot water heater (2019), all-new light fixtures (2025), updated shower heads and faucets, and refinished hardwood floors. The living room includes newly built custom shelving that provides ample storage while doubling as a unique built-in kennel for two large dogs, complete with a small electric fireplace for added warmth and a dedicated space for food and water bowls—perfect for pet lovers! Outside, enjoy raised herb beds, a generous yard, and a charming front porch, ideal for relaxing with your morning coffee while taking in the scenic surroundings. This home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and charm in a serene setting.

7. 2023-10-04
   soldstatus $152,500 Closed
8. 2023-10-04
   soldstatus $152,500
9. 2023-09-07
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2023-08-09
    price $152,500
11. 2023-07-26
    price $155,000
12. 2023-03-25
    price $159,000
13. 2023-03-25
    status Active
14. 2023-03-17
    historical
15. 2023-03-11
    historical Active Under Contract
16. 2023-02-20
    price $173,000
17. 2022-12-01
    status Active
18. 2022-11-20
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2022-10-24
    listed $175,000 Active
20. 2017-09-02
    historical
21. 2017-09-01
    soldstatus $90,000
22. 2017-08-31
    soldstatus $90,000
23. 2017-08-31
    soldstatus $90,000 Sold
24. 2017-08-07
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
25. 2017-03-04
    price $99,000
26. 2016-11-08
    listed $119,000 Active
27. 2016-11-08
    listed $99,000
28. 2012-04-25
    historical Expired
29. 2012-04-25
    historical
30. 2011-10-24
    listed Active
31. 2011-10-24
    listed $99,900
32. 2010-10-08
    soldstatus $40,000
33. 2008-11-30
    historical
34. 2008-05-30
    listed
35. 2003-11-17
    soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $585 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,878 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,292/yr (+$108/mo · 220.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$585
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,957
• − Management: −$1,957
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$673
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$161
• After-tax cash flow: $3,344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Page County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102850
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,808
• Composite: 43.77/100
• National rank: #2943
• State rank: #96 of 131 in VA

Livability — Stanley

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #257
• US rank: #8832

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,894

Population outlook (Page County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,843 people
• By 2030: 22,147 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 20,427 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 18,461 · -19.2%
• By 2075: 14,363 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 10,678 · -53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Page

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.1) · D 22.5% · R 76.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -54.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.1 2020: R+50.6 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+25.7 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.09%
• Current HPI: 350.7392
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+780.8% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — HRAR
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $229,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $229,000 HRAR
• 2023-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $152,500 Public Records
• 2023-10-04 Sold (MLS) $152,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-09-07 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-08-09 Price Changed $152,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-07-26 Price Changed $155,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-25 Price Changed $159,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-25 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-17 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-11 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-20 Price Changed $173,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-01 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-20 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-24 Listed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-09-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-31 Sold (MLS) $90,000 MRIS
• 2017-08-31 Sold (MLS) $90,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-08-07 Pending — MRIS
• 2017-03-04 Price Changed $99,000 MRIS
• 2016-11-08 Listed $119,000 MRIS
• 2016-11-08 Listed $99,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-04-25 Delisted — MRIS
• 2012-04-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-10-24 Listed — MRIS
• 2011-10-24 Listed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2008-11-30 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-05-30 Listed — MRIS
• 2003-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $585 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.