183 Poe Pkwy · Castroville, TX 78009

$639,990

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,716 sqft · SingleFamily · 156 Days on market

Built 2025 0.41 ac lot Est $743k · 14% under $13/mo HOA ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to The Foster! Embrace luxury with this one-story home's next-level features, including a three-car garage, elegant dining room and open-concept family room. Inside, the gourmet kitchen welcomes your guests and leads to the covered patio outside. Enter the primary suite and fall in love with the gorgeous primary bath. Make it your own with The Foster's flexible floor plan. Just know that offerings vary by location.

Key facts

• Flexible floor plan
• Gourmet kitchen
• Covered patio

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $640k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $616k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $563k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.7% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 441 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($563k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $563,191 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.87%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $743,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
183 Poe Pkwy	0.00mi	5/3.5	3,716 (0%)	4mo	$639,990	$172	97
210 Landon Path	0.11mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,747 (+1%)	2mo	$794,800	$212	87
534 Englewood	0.12mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,568 (-4%)	6mo	$669,990	$188	78
287 Poe Pkwy	0.12mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,568 (-4%)	7mo	$669,990	$188	77
222 Raven Rd	0.30mi	5/4.5	3,885 (+4%)	2mo	$912,151	$235	73
411 Poe Pkwy	0.24mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,822 (+3%)	8mo	$809,800	$212	72
250 Matthew Path	0.10mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,325 (-10%)	1mo	$699,900	$210	72
264 Storm Way	0.35mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,568 (-4%)	1mo	$695,990	$195	71
247 Storm Way	0.33mi	5/5.5	3,800 (+2%)	8mo	$779,800	$205	66
288 Lilly Blf	0.57mi	5/4.5	4,009 (+8%)	1mo	$799,990	$200	56
239 Sittre Dr	0.46mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,324 (-10%)	0mo	$635,000	$191	54
208 Roundtop Hl	0.52mi	5/4.5	4,198 (+13%)	2mo	$825,000	$197	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-76,324
• Equity at exit: $95,425

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-30,924
• Equity at exit: $55,335

Cash invested: $179,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,157 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,356
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$800 /mo · $9,600/yr
• Insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,293
• Net cashflow: $428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,615

Max offer price $639,990

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $159,998
• Closing costs: $19,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$7,200	$1.79	4d	1	0.27mi
270 Lilly Blf Castroville, TX	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,600	$1.22	43d	1	0.57mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-13
   price $639,990
3. 2025-09-22
   listed $675,364 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $73,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,849
• − Property taxes: −$9,600
• − Insurance: −$3,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,911
• − Management: −$5,911
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$18,618
• Taxable loss: −$5,359
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,286
• After-tax cash flow: $6,426/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,494

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Albanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Pending — LERA
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $639,990 LERA
• 2025-09-22 Listed $675,364 LERA