45800 Challenger Way #205 · Lancaster, CA 93535

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1971 Good condition Est $168k · 11% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Brierwood Estates, a desirable all-age community offering great amenities including a pool, basketball court, billiard room, recreation room, computer center, clubhouse, and free WiFi access within the community clubhouse. This spacious double-wide manufactured home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,344 sq ft of comfortable living space. The open living room features laminate flooring and flows into the dining area with a lighted built-in hutch and adjacent kitchen, creating a functional and inviting layout. Laminate flooring runs throughout most of the home, while the laundry room and bathrooms feature tile flooring. Additional features include central A/C, c

Key facts

• Great amenities
• Recreation room
• Basketball court

Tags

• ALL-AGE COMMUNITY
• GREAT AMENITIES
• POOL
• BASKETBALL COURT
• BILLIARD ROOM
• RECREATION ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 0–1 unit/acre lot classification; Accessibility: parking available
• Financial info: Monthly land lease (park) of $750
• HOA & community: Part of an association with playground, pool, and multipurpose recreational room; Park name: Brierwood Estates; Manager approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story; Mobile home (Silvercrest model, remains on site); Mobile dimensions approximately 12' x 56'; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Chain link fence; Community pool; One shed; Park within the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Laminated flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with double sinks and shower (shower in tub present)
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Side door entry; Storage space; Community spa
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Lancaster Elementary (suburban): math 18% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #1,161 of 1,400 in CA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1169 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,864/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 2494% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.93%
• DSCR: 2.78
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45800 Challenger Way #225	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	9mo	$135,000	$100	87
45800 Challenger Way #181	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$159,000	$110	82
45800 Challenger Way #212	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	16mo	$169,000	$126	82
45800 Challenger Way #75	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	21mo	$175,000	$130	78
45800 Challenger Way #304	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	5mo	$169,000	$117	78
45800 Challenger Way #206	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	15mo	$180,000	$125	68
45800 Challenger Way Way #9	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	18mo	$165,000	$132	68
45800 Challenger Way Spc 80	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	14mo	$165,000	$109	65
1301 E Avenue I #348	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	1mo	$159,000	$127	58
1301 E Avenue I Spc 246	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$130,000	$90	58
1301 E Avenue I #6	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	6mo	$190,000	$132	47
1301 E I Ave #92	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	21mo	$149,999	$120	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $56,201
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.15×
• Total profit: $131,516
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93535

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1169
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,864 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $373/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $1,388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,107

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45402 5th St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1237	$2,775	$2.24	1d	1	0.89mi
45428 Raysack Ave Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1244	$2,900	$2.33	1d	1	0.91mi
45426 Stanridge Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1443	$2,975	$2.06	15d	1	1.10mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1259	$2,895	$2.30	3d	1	1.10mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1259	$3,000	$2.38	21d	1	1.10mi
45041 Colleen Dr Lancaster, CA	3.0	3.0	1303	$3,100	$2.38	1d	1	1.16mi
45118 Parkview Ln Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,500	$2.55	24d	1	1.25mi
44908 Logue Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1473	$2,495	$1.69	1d	1	1.30mi
45465 25th St E Spc 10 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1690	$825	$0.49	2d	1	1.33mi
44961 5th St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1248	$2,500	$2.00	1d	1	1.34mi
44732 12th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,600	$1.82	15d	1	1.47mi
44946 3rd St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1256	$2,395	$1.91	15d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    price $149,000
16. 2026-05-13
    price $159,000
17. 2026-04-20
    listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $373 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,132 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$759/yr (+$63/mo · 203.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥101°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,370
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$373
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,750
• − Management: −$2,750
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $15,072
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,617
• After-tax cash flow: $13,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This double-wide manufactured home in Brierwood Estates is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Upgrades to the exterior and HVAC system would significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0620880
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,440
• Composite: 24.73/100
• National rank: #13028
• State rank: #1161 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,409
• Household income: $70,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2494.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 25% Black 21% White 17% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.13%
• Current HPI: 449.4494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-9.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $149,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $159,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $165,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $373 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.