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45800 Challenger Way #205
B Composite 71.13
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +30.0/30.0
  • ARV discount +12.4/15.0
  • 1% rule +10.0/10.0
  • DSCR +10.0/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Livability +3.4/5.0
  • Appreciation +2.5/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • Schools +2.5/10.0
  • Manufactured-home adj. -6.2

$139,000

45800 Challenger Way #205 · Lancaster, CA 93535
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 156 Days on market
Manufactured home Built 1971 Good condition $103/sqft · 11% below area Est $156k · 11% under ↓ 10% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to Brierwood Estates, a desirable all-age community offering great amenities including a pool, basketball court, billiard room, recreation room, computer center, clubhouse, and free WiFi access within the community clubhouse. This spacious double-wide manufactured home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,344 sq ft of comfortable living space. The open living room features laminate flooring and flows into the dining area with a lighted built-in hutch and adjacent kitchen, creating a functional and inviting layout. Laminate flooring runs throughout most of the home, while the laundry room and bathrooms feature tile flooring.

Key facts

  • Great amenities
  • Recreation room
  • Basketball court

Tags

ALL-AGE COMMUNITYGREAT AMENITIESPOOLBASKETBALL COURTBILLIARD ROOMRECREATION ROOM

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $848 ($10k/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
  • Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 4.2% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
  • Lancaster Elementary (suburban): math 18% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #1,161 of 1,400 in CA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
  • Zoned schools: Linda Verde Elementary (657 students, 88% FRL); Piute Middle (731 students, 96% FRL); Antelope Valley High (1,558 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 72% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: Rents flat; 1646 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 77% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
  • At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
  3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.52%
Cap rate
13.62%
Cash-on-cash
26.15%
DSCR
2.16
GRM
5.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$156,000
List price
$139,000
Delta
-10.90%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
19 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
45800 Challenger Way #225 0.00mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,344 (0%) 12mo $135,000 $100 85
45800 Challenger Way #181 0.12mi 3/2.0 1,440 (+7%) 4mo $159,000 $110 79
45800 Challenger Way #212 0.00mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,344 (0%) 19mo $169,000 $126 79
45800 Challenger Way #304 0.02mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,440 (+7%) 9mo $169,000 $117 75
45800 Challenger Way #206 0.05mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,440 (+7%) 18mo $180,000 $125 66
45800 Challenger Way Way #9 0.00mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,248 (-7%) 21mo $165,000 $132 66
45800 Challenger Way Spc 80 0.05mi 3/2.0 1,512 (+12%) 17mo $165,000 $109 62
1301 E Avenue I SPC 225 0.63mi 3/2.0 1,440 (+7%) 1mo $150,000 $104 58
1301 E Avenue I #348 0.63mi 3/2.0 1,248 (-7%) 4mo $159,000 $127 55
1301 E Avenue I Spc 246 0.63mi 3/2.0 1,440 (+7%) 4mo $130,000 $90 55
1301 E Avenue I #6 0.65mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,440 (+7%) 10mo $190,000 $132 45
1301 E Avenue I #116 0.63mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,392 (+4%) 23mo $164,999 $119 41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
16.8%
Equity multiple
1.66×
Total profit
$25,539
Equity at exit
$20,725
10-year hold
IRR
23.4%
Equity multiple
2.77×
Total profit
$68,705
Equity at exit
$12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
State California
18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.
Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
6 active · 7 under contract
Months of supply
4.5 mo (22%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$159,450 ($113/sqft)
Median days on market
106 d
This list price
17% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+2.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 93535

Home prices YoY
-24.3%
Rents YoY
0.1%
Active inventory
1646
Price-to-rent
5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,109 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$729
Tax from tax record
$31 /mo · $373/yr
Insurance
$58
HOA
$0
Lot rent leased land?
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$443
Net cashflow
$848

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,035
Max offer price $139,000
Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $927 -5% $887 +0% $848 +5% $809 +10% $769
Rent -10% $682 -5% $765 +0% $848 +5% $931 +10% $1,015
Rate -1.0pp $918 -0.5pp $884 base $848 +0.5pp $812 +1.0pp $775

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$34,750
Closing costs
$4,170
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 22 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
45554 6th St E Lancaster, CA 3.0 2.0 1204 $2,400 $1.99 0d 1 0.70mi
45414 17th St E Lancaster, CA 3.0 2.0 1385 $2,400 $1.73 0d 1 0.87mi
45402 5th St E Lancaster, CA 4.0 2.0 1237 $2,775 $2.24 94d 1 0.89mi
45428 Raysack Ave Lancaster, CA 4.0 2.0 1244 $2,900 $2.33 69d 1 0.91mi
45426 Stanridge Ave Lancaster, CA 3.0 2.0 1443 $2,975 $2.06 110d 1 1.10mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA 3.0 2.0 1259 $2,895 $2.30 99d 1 1.10mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA 3.0 2.0 1259 $3,000 $2.38 117d 1 1.10mi
1786 Linn Way Unit 1788 Lancaster, CA 3.0 1.0 948 $1,900 $2.00 67d 1 1.12mi
1786 Linn Way Unit 1786 Lancaster, CA 3.0 1.0 1130 $2,250 $1.99 61d 1 1.12mi
45041 Colleen Dr Lancaster, CA 3.0 3.0 1303 $2,995 $2.30 43d 1 1.16mi
45007 Logue Ct Lancaster, CA 4.0 3.0 1023 $4,600 $4.50 25d 1 1.18mi
817 E Kildare St Lancaster, CA 3.0 2.0 1179 $2,499 $2.12 42d 1 1.21mi
44920 Calston Ave Lancaster, CA 4.0 3.0 1526 $3,500 $2.29 65d 1 1.24mi
45118 Parkview Ln Lancaster, CA 2.0 2.0 980 $2,500 $2.55 119d 1 1.25mi
2121 E Avenue I #49 Lancaster, CA 3.0 2.0 1344 $2,295 $1.71 2d 1 1.29mi
2121 E Avenue I #49 Lancaster, CA 3.0 2.0 1344 $2,295 $1.71 0d 1 1.29mi
44908 Logue Ave Lancaster, CA 3.0 2.0 1473 $2,495 $1.69 96d 1 1.30mi
45465 25th St E Spc 10 Lancaster, CA 3.0 2.0 1690 $825 $0.49 98d 1 1.33mi
44961 5th St E Lancaster, CA 4.0 2.0 1248 $2,500 $2.00 36d 1 1.34mi
44961 5th St E Lancaster, CA 4.0 2.0 1248 $2,500 $2.00 59d 1 1.34mi
44732 12th St E Lancaster, CA 3.0 2.0 1426 $2,600 $1.82 110d 1 1.47mi
44946 3rd St E Lancaster, CA 4.0 2.0 1256 $2,395 $1.91 110d 1 1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
0–1 unit/acre lot classificationAccessibility: parking available
Financial info
Monthly land lease (park) of $750
HOA & community
Part of an association with playground, pool, and multipurpose recreational roomPark name: Brierwood EstatesManager approval requiredPets allowed

Exterior

Parking
Carport (1 space)
Utilities
Public sewerDistrict/public water
Home design
Single-storyMobile home (Silvercrest model, remains on site)Mobile dimensions approximately 12' x 56'Entry level: 1
Construction
Year built per public records
Exterior features
Chain link fenceCommunity poolOne shedPark within the community

Interior

Kitchen
RefrigeratorGas water heater
Flooring
Laminated flooring
Bathrooms
Two full bathroomsMaster bath with double sinks and shower (shower in tub present)
Heating & cooling
Central furnace heatingCentral cooling
Interior features
Side door entryStorage spaceCommunity spa
Laundry & utility
Washer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-23
    statusdays on market $139,000 Active 156 DOM
  2. 2026-09-22
    days on market $139,000 Active Under Contract 155 DOM
  3. 2026-09-21
    days on market $139,000 Active Under Contract 154 DOM
  4. 2026-09-20
    days on market $139,000 Active Under Contract 153 DOM
  5. 2026-09-19
    days on market $139,000 Active Under Contract 152 DOM
  6. 2026-09-18
    statusdays on market $139,000 Active Under Contract 151 DOM
  7. 2026-09-17
    days on market $139,000 Active 150 DOM
  8. 2026-09-16
    days on market $139,000 Active 149 DOM
  9. 2026-09-15
    days on market $139,000 Active 148 DOM
  10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $139,000 Active 147 DOM
  11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $139,000 Active 146 DOM
  12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $139,000 Active 145 DOM
  13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $139,000 Active 144 DOM
  14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 138 DOM
  15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $139,000 Active 137 DOM
  16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 135 DOM
  17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 133 DOM
  18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 132 DOM
  19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $139,000 Active 131 DOM
  20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $139,000 Active 130 DOM
  21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $139,000 Active 129 DOM
  22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $139,000 Active 128 DOM
  23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $139,000 Active 127 DOM
  24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $139,000 Active 126 DOM
  25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $139,000 Active 125 DOM
  26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $139,000 Active 124 DOM
  27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $139,000 Active 123 DOM
  28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $139,000 Active 122 DOM
  29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $139,000 Active 121 DOM
  30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $139,000 Active 120 DOM
  31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $139,000 Active 119 DOM
  32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $139,000 Active 118 DOM
  33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $139,000 Active 117 DOM
  34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $139,000 Active 116 DOM
  35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $139,000 Active 115 DOM
  36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $139,000 Active 114 DOM
  37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $139,000 Active 113 DOM
  38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $139,000 Active 112 DOM
  39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $139,000 Active 111 DOM
  40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 110 DOM
  41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $139,000 Active 108 DOM
  42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 107 DOM
  43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $139,000 Active 106 DOM
  44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 105 DOM
  45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 102 DOM
  46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 101 DOM
  47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 100 DOM
  48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $139,000 Active 99 DOM
  49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $139,000 Active 97 DOM
  50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $139,000 Active 95 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$373 · $31/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$1,056 · $88/mo
Expected delta
+$683/yr (+$57/mo · 183.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥101°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
  • 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$25,308
− Mortgage interest
−$7,786
− Property taxes
−$373
− Insurance
−$695
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,025
− Management
−$2,025
− Depreciation
−$4,044
Taxable income
$8,361
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
−$2,007
After-tax cash flow
$8,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,720–$20,160 screening

This double-wide manufactured home in Brierwood Estates is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Upgrades to the exterior and HVAC system would significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
  • Both Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics
  • Both Upgrade HVAC system — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mariposa Elementary Middle Piute Middle High Antelope Valley High

Schools (NCES district)

District
Lancaster Elementary
NCES district ID
0620880
Math proficiency
18% ▲ 1.00%
Reading proficiency
32% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income
$46,440
Composite
24.73/100
National rank
#13028
State rank
#1161 of 1400 in CA
C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Lancaster

Score
68/100
State rank
#282
US rank
#9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Lancaster, CA
County
Los Angeles County · 10,940,515 people
City population
194,251
Metro
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
Population (ZIP)
79,409
Household income
$70,360
Rent vs Own
33.6% rent · 66.4% own
Severe rent burden
17% of renters

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
10,940,515 people
By 2030
11,256,481 · +2.9%
By 2040
11,729,929 · +7.2%
By 2050
11,948,407 · +9.2%
By 2075
11,818,114 · +8.0%
By 2100
10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 25% Black 21% White 17% Asian 2% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 42%
Common ancestry
Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
Foreign-born
13% · Canada
Languages at home
60% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

2024 margin
Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
2008→2024 swing
-7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
All cycles
2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-9.7% since first listed
3 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-20 Price Changed $149,000 CRMLS
  • 2026-05-13 Price Changed $159,000 CRMLS
  • 2026-04-20 Listed $165,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $373 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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