45800 Challenger Way #205 · Lancaster, CA 93535

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 183 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1971 Good condition $103/sqft · 12% below area Est $158k · 12% under ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.2

Listing remarks

Welcome to Brierwood Estates, a desirable all-age community offering great amenities including a pool, basketball court, billiard room, recreation room, computer center, clubhouse, and free WiFi access within the community clubhouse. This spacious double-wide manufactured home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,344 sq ft of comfortable living space. The open living room features laminate flooring and flows into the dining area with a lighted built-in hutch and adjacent kitchen, creating a functional and inviting layout. Laminate flooring runs throughout most of the home, while the laundry room and bathrooms feature tile flooring.

Key facts

• Great amenities
• Recreation room
• Basketball court

Tags

• ALL-AGE COMMUNITY
• GREAT AMENITIES
• POOL
• BASKETBALL COURT
• BILLIARD ROOM
• RECREATION ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $828 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Lancaster Elementary (suburban): math 18% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #1,161 of 1,400 in CA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Linda Verde Elementary (657 students, 88% FRL); Piute Middle (731 students, 96% FRL); Antelope Valley High (1,558 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 72% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1797 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 105d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.51%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,571
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -11.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45800 Challenger Way #225	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	14mo	$135,000	$100	83
45800 Challenger Way #181	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	6mo	$159,000	$110	78
45800 Challenger Way #212	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	21mo	$169,000	$126	78
45800 Challenger Way #304	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	10mo	$169,000	$117	74
45800 Challenger Way #206	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	19mo	$180,000	$125	65
45800 Challenger Way Way #9	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	22mo	$165,000	$132	64
45800 Challenger Way Spc 80	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	19mo	$165,000	$109	61
1301 E Avenue I SPC 225	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	3mo	$150,000	$104	56
1301 E Avenue I #348	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	6mo	$159,000	$127	54
1301 E Avenue I Spc 246	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	6mo	$130,000	$90	54
1301 E Avenue I #6	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	11mo	$190,000	$132	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $24,298
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $66,215
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.0 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $159,900 ($115/sqft)
• Median days on market: 116 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 93535

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1797
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,083 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $373/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $828

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,035

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $906	-5% $867	+0% $828	+5% $788	+10% $749
Rent	-10% $663	-5% $745	+0% $828	+5% $910	+10% $992
Rate	-1.0pp $898	-0.5pp $863	base $828	+0.5pp $792	+1.0pp $755

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45554 6th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1204	$2,400	$1.99	0d	1	0.70mi
45554 6th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1204	$2,400	$1.99	5d	1	0.70mi
45414 17th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1385	$2,400	$1.73	5d	1	0.87mi
45414 17th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1385	$2,400	$1.73	9d	1	0.87mi
45402 5th St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1237	$2,775	$2.24	140d	1	0.89mi
45428 Raysack Ave Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1244	$2,900	$2.33	114d	1	0.91mi
45456 Foxton Ave Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,650	$1.83	0d	1	1.03mi
45039 Denmore Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,400	$1.69	0d	1	1.08mi
45426 Stanridge Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1443	$2,975	$2.06	156d	1	1.10mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1259	$2,895	$2.30	144d	1	1.10mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1259	$3,000	$2.38	163d	1	1.10mi
1786 Linn Way Unit 1786 Lancaster, CA	3.0	1.0	1130	$2,250	$1.99	107d	1	1.12mi
1786 Linn Way Unit 1788 Lancaster, CA	3.0	1.0	948	$1,900	$2.00	113d	1	1.12mi
45041 Colleen Dr Lancaster, CA	3.0	3.0	1303	$2,995	$2.30	89d	1	1.16mi
45007 Logue Ct Lancaster, CA	4.0	3.0	1023	$4,600	$4.50	71d	1	1.18mi
817 E Kildare St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1179	$2,499	$2.12	88d	1	1.21mi
1619 E Kettering St Unit 1 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1417	$2,400	$1.69	17d	1	1.24mi
44920 Calston Ave Lancaster, CA	4.0	3.0	1526	$3,500	$2.29	110d	1	1.24mi
44961 16th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,495	$1.81	0d	1	1.25mi
45118 Parkview Ln Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,500	$2.55	165d	1	1.25mi
2121 E Avenue I #49 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,295	$1.71	12d	1	1.29mi
2121 E Avenue I #49 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,295	$1.71	0d	1	1.29mi
44908 Logue Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1473	$2,495	$1.69	142d	1	1.30mi
45465 25th St E Spc 10 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1690	$825	$0.49	143d	1	1.33mi
44961 5th St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1248	$2,500	$2.00	81d	1	1.34mi
44961 5th St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1248	$2,500	$2.00	104d	1	1.34mi
44732 12th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,600	$1.82	156d	1	1.47mi
44946 3rd St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1256	$2,395	$1.91	156d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 0–1 unit/acre lot classificationAccessibility: parking available
• Financial info: Monthly land lease (park) of $750
• HOA & community: Part of an association with playground, pool, and multipurpose recreational roomPark name: Brierwood EstatesManager approval requiredPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public sewerDistrict/public water
• Home design: Single-storyMobile home (Silvercrest model, remains on site)Mobile dimensions approximately 12' x 56'Entry level: 1
• Construction: Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Chain link fenceCommunity poolOne shedPark within the community

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorGas water heater
• Flooring: Laminated flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsMaster bath with double sinks and shower (shower in tub present)
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heatingCentral cooling
• Interior features: Side door entryStorage spaceCommunity spa
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-10-20
   days on market $139,000 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-10-19
   days on market $139,000 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-10-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-10-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-10-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-10-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-10-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-10-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-10-12
   days on market $139,000 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-10-11
    days on market $139,000 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-10-10
    days on market $139,000 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-10-09
    days on market $139,000 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-10-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-10-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 170 DOM
15. 2026-10-06
    days on market $139,000 Active 169 DOM
16. 2026-10-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 168 DOM
17. 2026-10-04
    days on market $139,000 Active 167 DOM
18. 2026-10-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 166 DOM
19. 2026-10-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 165 DOM
20. 2026-10-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 164 DOM
21. 2026-09-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 163 DOM
22. 2026-09-29
    days on market $139,000 Active 162 DOM
23. 2026-09-28
    days on market $139,000 Active 161 DOM
24. 2026-09-27
    days on market $139,000 Active 160 DOM
25. 2026-09-26
    days on market $139,000 Active 159 DOM
26. 2026-09-25
    days on market $139,000 Active 158 DOM
27. 2026-09-24
    days on market $139,000 Active 157 DOM
28. 2026-09-23
    statusdays on market $139,000 Active 156 DOM
29. 2026-09-22
    days on market $139,000 Active Under Contract 155 DOM
30. 2026-09-21
    days on market $139,000 Active Under Contract 154 DOM
31. 2026-09-20
    days on market $139,000 Active Under Contract 153 DOM
32. 2026-09-19
    days on market $139,000 Active Under Contract 152 DOM
33. 2026-09-18
    statusdays on market $139,000 Active Under Contract 151 DOM
34. 2026-09-17
    days on market $139,000 Active 150 DOM
35. 2026-09-16
    days on market $139,000 Active 149 DOM
36. 2026-09-15
    days on market $139,000 Active 148 DOM
37. 2026-09-14
    days on market $139,000 Active 147 DOM
38. 2026-09-13
    days on market $139,000 Active 146 DOM
39. 2026-09-12
    days on market $139,000 Active 145 DOM
40. 2026-09-11
    days on market $139,000 Active 144 DOM
41. 2026-09-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 138 DOM
42. 2026-09-04
    days on market $139,000 Active 137 DOM
43. 2026-09-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 135 DOM
44. 2026-08-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 133 DOM
45. 2026-08-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 132 DOM
46. 2026-08-29
    days on market $139,000 Active 131 DOM
47. 2026-08-28
    days on market $139,000 Active 130 DOM
48. 2026-08-27
    days on market $139,000 Active 129 DOM
49. 2026-08-26
    days on market $139,000 Active 128 DOM
50. 2026-08-25
    days on market $139,000 Active 127 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $373 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,056 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$683/yr (+$57/mo · 183.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥101°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$373
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,000
• − Management: −$2,000
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $8,098
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,943
• After-tax cash flow: $7,987/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,720–$20,160 screening

This double-wide manufactured home in Brierwood Estates is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Upgrades to the exterior and HVAC system would significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mariposa Elementary Middle Piute Middle High Antelope Valley High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0620880
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,440
• Composite: 24.73/100
• National rank: #13028
• State rank: #1161 of 1400 in CA

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 10,940,515 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,409
• Household income: $70,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

---

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 25% Black 21% White 17% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.13%
• Current HPI: 449.4494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 0–1 unit/acre lot classificationAccessibility: parking available
• Financial info: Monthly land lease (park) of $750
• HOA & community: Part of an association with playground, pool, and multipurpose recreational roomPark name: Brierwood EstatesManager approval requiredPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public sewerDistrict/public water
• Home design: Single-storyMobile home (Silvercrest model, remains on site)Mobile dimensions approximately 12' x 56'Entry level: 1
• Construction: Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Chain link fenceCommunity poolOne shedPark within the community

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorGas water heater
• Flooring: Laminated flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsMaster bath with double sinks and shower (shower in tub present)
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heatingCentral cooling
• Interior features: Side door entryStorage spaceCommunity spa
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-9.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $149,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $159,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $165,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $373 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.