5144 Virginia Dr · Newburgh, IN 47630

$159,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,158 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1994 8,712 sqft lot Est $214k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This all-brick ranch has been freshly painted, has newer flooring, and is EXTREMELY clean and bright! Located at the end of a cul-de-sac, this 3 bd, 1.5 home offers a larger yard than most in its price range and a beautiful covered deck to enjoy it. The covered front porch entry leads directly into the bright family room which is open to the eat-in kitchen. An added bonus for this home is an 11x10 mudroom directly off the 1 car garage. The mudroom has a door to the backyard and would make it a great space for pets!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Covered deck area
• 8,712 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COVERED DECK AREA
• MUDROOM OFF OF KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Heritage Place

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Concrete driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Site-built home; One-story
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Deck; Chain link full fencing; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 2 bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Laminate countertops; Master bedroom on main level; Crawl space foundation
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level; Electric dryer hookup on main level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (4.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.9% in Newburgh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#21 in IN, #1,922 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Warrick County School Corporation (suburban): math 54% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #24 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newburgh Elementary School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade B+, #65 of 994 statewide, top 7%, 629 students, 32% FRL); Castle North Middle School (math 57% / reading 59%, grade B, #18 of 330 statewide, top 5%, 770 students, 22% FRL); Castle High School (math 56% / reading 80%, grade B, #22 of 369 statewide, top 6%, 1,961 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 249 units permitted in Warrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warrick County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $160k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,015 (4.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.46%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $214,230
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4899 Martin Rd	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,200 (+4%)	2mo	$205,000	$171	72
6811 Lexington Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,244 (+7%)	9mo	$220,000	$177	67
4961 Live Oak Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,181 (+2%)	17mo	$239,900	$203	62
4877 Martin Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+6%)	9mo	$225,000	$184	61
6366 Acadia Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,310 (+13%)	0mo	$251,000	$192	51
5066 Arches Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+9%)	0mo	$252,000	$199	50
6722 Muirfield Ct	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,224 (+6%)	10mo	$212,000	$173	50
4700 Lenn Rd	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,305 (+13%)	10mo	$201,500	$154	46
5188 Arches Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,324 (+14%)	1mo	$249,900	$189	42
7366 Acorn Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,272 (+10%)	12mo	$224,000	$176	40
7300 Acorn Dr	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,038 (-10%)	16mo	$192,000	$185	38
5100 Shenandoah Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,015 (-12%)	14mo	$199,900	$197	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,891
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $49,093
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47630

• Rents YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,530 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,272

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $294	-5% $249	+0% $204	+5% $158	+10% $113
Rent	-10% $83	-5% $143	+0% $204	+5% $264	+10% $325
Rate	-1.0pp $284	-0.5pp $244	base $204	+0.5pp $162	+1.0pp $120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6888 Lexington Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,450	$0.97	44d	1	0.18mi
5033 IN-66 Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.5	1487	$2,100	$1.41	21d	1	0.22mi
7300 Brentwood Dr Newburgh, IN	2.0	1.0	890	$865	$0.97	14d	1	0.54mi
7177 Outer Lincoln Ave Newburgh, IN	2.0	1.0	920	$1,000	$1.09	14d	1	0.62mi
4911 Shenandoah Ave Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,695	$1.33	21d	1	0.74mi
5700 Kenwood Cir Newburgh, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0	858	$910	$1.06	14d	2	1.20mi
4266 Old State Route 261 Apt 9 Newburgh, IN	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,015	$1.01	21d	1	1.23mi
4266 Old State Route 261 Apt 12 Newburgh, IN	2.0	2.0	1001	$995	$0.99	14d	1	1.23mi
4266 Old State Route 261 Apt 1 Newburgh, IN	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,035	$1.03	21d	1	1.24mi
107 Olde Newburgh Dr Newburgh, IN	2.0	2.5	1380	$1,375	$1.00	44d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 362-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $159,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,200 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,280 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$80/yr (+$7/mo · 6.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,469
• − Management: −$1,469
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$184
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$44
• After-tax cash flow: $2,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warrick County School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1812390
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $62,801
• Composite: 49.38/100
• National rank: #2014
• State rank: #24 of 301 in IN

Livability — Newburgh

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #1922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warrick County · 39,818 people
• City population: 39,818
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• Population (ZIP): 39,818
• Household income: $94,162
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 770.0

Population outlook (Warrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,569 people
• By 2030: 68,404 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 71,131 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 72,743 · +9.3%
• By 2075: 76,088 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 72,261 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 34.1% · R 64.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+27.8 2016: R+33.9 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.44%
• Current HPI: 185.7643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.69%
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+45.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $159,900 IRMLS
• 2017-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-10 Sold (MLS) $105,000 IRMLS
• 2017-09-08 Listed $110,000 IRMLS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,200 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.