1156 Bearwallow Rd · Ashland City, TN 37015

$99,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1966 1.00 ac lot $79/sqft · 69% below area ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Estate Sale!! Selling AS IS. True Basement Home with 3 Bedrooms, Living room and large Kitchen. Lot and home offer a lot of potential but needs a lot of clean up. Older septic system on file. City Water. Cash Only.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1966
• Listed 122 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $872 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 3.4% in Ashland City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cheatham County (rural): math 24% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #74 of 139 in TN (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 271 units permitted in Cheatham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.41%
• DSCR: 2.66
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,676
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -68.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1230 Bearwallow Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,384 (+10%)	2mo	$389,900	$282	70
102 Ash Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,275 (+1%)	7mo	$315,000	$247	56
1037 Boston Hollow Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,334 (+6%)	2mo	$318,000	$238	53
103 Ashland Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+8%)	21mo	$310,000	$227	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $37,695
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.49×
• Total profit: $97,668
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37015

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,889 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $656/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $872

Break-even live

Break-even rent $785

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,900 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-05-14
    price $99,900 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Estate Sale!! Selling AS IS. True Basement Home with 3 Bedrooms, Living room and large Kitchen. Lot and home offer a lot of potential but needs a lot of clean up. Older septic system on file. City Water. Cash Only.

14. 2026-04-03
    price $119,900 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Estate Sale!! Selling AS IS. True Basement Home with 3 Bedrooms, Living room and large Kitchen. Lot and home offer a lot of potential but needs a lot of clean up. Older septic system on file. City Water. Cash Only.

15. 2026-02-27
    price $150,000 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Estate Sale!! Selling AS IS. True Basement Home with 3 Bedrooms, Living room and large Kitchen. Lot and home offer a lot of potential but needs a lot of clean up. Older septic system on file. City Water. Cash Only.

16. 2026-02-16
    listed $200,000 Active 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Estate Sale!! Selling AS IS. True Basement Home with 3 Bedrooms, Living room and large Kitchen. Lot and home offer a lot of potential but needs a lot of clean up. Older septic system on file. City Water. Cash Only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $709 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$53/yr (+$4/mo · 8.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,666
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$656
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,813
• − Management: −$1,813
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $9,382
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,252
• After-tax cash flow: $8,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cheatham County
• NCES district ID: 4700570
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,027
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7949
• State rank: #74 of 139 in TN

Livability — Ashland City

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #12483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cheatham County · 18,988 people
• City population: 18,988
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 18,988
• Household income: $79,092
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 396.0

Population outlook (Cheatham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,312 people
• By 2030: 41,739 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 41,726 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 40,413 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 37,125 · -10.1%
• By 2100: 31,619 · -23.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cheatham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.3% · R 72.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+44.0 2016: R+46.9 2012: R+37.0 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.06%
• Current HPI: 313.8358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.13%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-50.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $99,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $119,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $150,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Listed $200,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $656 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.