2617 Banner St · St. Paul, VA 24283

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1976 0.70 ac lot $76/sqft · 21% below area Est $120k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This brick ranch offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, kitchen and living area, along with a den and laundry area. There is a large deck, brick patio, and a brick storage building. Buyer and buyer's agent should verify all information in this listing. Subject to Errors and Omissions.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Brick patio
• 0.7 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE DECK
• BRICK PATIO
• BRICK STORAGE BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Russell County Public School District (rural): math 58% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #44 of 131 in VA (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Russell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Russell County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.12%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,569
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -20.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $3,265
• Equity at exit: $17,338

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $25,570
• Equity at exit: $13,770

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24283

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,049 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $531/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $737

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $300	-5% $273	+0% $247	+5% $220	+10% $193
Rent	-10% $164	-5% $205	+0% $247	+5% $288	+10% $329
Rate	-1.0pp $294	-0.5pp $271	base $247	+0.5pp $222	+1.0pp $197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    status Active 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    This brick ranch offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, kitchen and living area, along with a den and laundry area. There is a large deck, brick patio, and a brick storage building. Buyer and buyer's agent should verify all information in this listing. Subject to Errors and Omissions.

17. 2026-03-11
    status Pending 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    This brick ranch offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, kitchen and living area, along with a den and laundry area. There is a large deck, brick patio, and a brick storage building. Buyer and buyer's agent should verify all information in this listing. Subject to Errors and Omissions.

18. 2026-03-04
    listed $100,000 Active 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    This brick ranch offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, kitchen and living area, along with a den and laundry area. There is a large deck, brick patio, and a brick storage building. Buyer and buyer's agent should verify all information in this listing. Subject to Errors and Omissions.

19. 2026-01-27
    soldstatus $80,000
20. 2021-03-05
    soldstatus $94,000 354-char remark

    Show marketing remark (354 chars)

    This brick home features all new flooring, new refrigerator and stove, new windows and paint. There are 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom a spacious kitchen and living area, along with a den or dining room space. Outside, there is a large deck, brick patio and a separate structure that could be used for an art studio, man cave, or a she shed! Come see it today!

21. 2021-03-05
    soldstatus $94,000

    Show marketing remark (354 chars)

    This brick home features all new flooring, new refrigerator and stove, new windows and paint. There are 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom a spacious kitchen and living area, along with a den or dining room space. Outside, there is a large deck, brick patio and a separate structure that could be used for an art studio, man cave, or a she shed! Come see it today!

22. 2021-01-05
    listed $99,000 354-char remark

    Show marketing remark (354 chars)

    This brick home features all new flooring, new refrigerator and stove, new windows and paint. There are 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom a spacious kitchen and living area, along with a den or dining room space. Outside, there is a large deck, brick patio and a separate structure that could be used for an art studio, man cave, or a she shed! Come see it today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $531 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $779 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$248/yr (+$21/mo · 46.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$531
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,007
• − Management: −$1,007
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $1,482
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$356
• After-tax cash flow: $2,604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Russell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103420
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $34,970
• Composite: 54.14/100
• National rank: #1384
• State rank: #44 of 131 in VA

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,873

Population outlook (Russell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,787 people
• By 2030: 24,485 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 21,750 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 19,214 · -25.5%
• By 2075: 14,500 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 10,629 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Serbian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Russell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.5) · D 16.1% · R 83.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -54.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -67.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.5 2020: R+63.5 2016: R+58.9 2012: R+37.0 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Current HPI: 120.7777
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — TVRMLS
• 2026-03-11 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $100,000 TVRMLS
• 2026-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-05 Sold (MLS) $94,000 TVRMLS
• 2021-01-05 Listed $99,000 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $531 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.