202 Salt Creek Rd · Carter, TX 76082

$169,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1997 3.59 ac lot ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity! Over 3 acres with two mobile homes on the property. Lots of trees. Great location in Springtown.

Key facts

• Lots of trees
• Two mobile homes
• Over 3 acres

Tags

• OVER 3 ACRES
• TWO MOBILE HOMES
• LOTS OF TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $692 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 2.5% in Carter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Poolville ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #385 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Poolville El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 380 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 519 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.45%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $16,551
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $71,251
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76082

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Active inventory: 519
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,344 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,383/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $692

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,469

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-01-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-31
   price $169,900
3. 2025-09-09
   price $189,900
4. 2025-08-20
   price $199,900
5. 2025-08-12
   price $229,900
6. 2025-07-25
   listed $239,900 Active
7. 2017-03-13
   soldstatus
8. 2007-05-15
   soldstatus
9. 2001-01-12
   soldstatus
10. 2000-08-30
    soldstatus
11. 1999-12-16
    soldstatus
12. 1999-12-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,383 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$726/yr (+$60/mo · 30.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,383
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,251
• − Management: −$2,251
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $5,939
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,425
• After-tax cash flow: $6,875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poolville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835340
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,462
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #5090
• State rank: #385 of 826 in TX

Livability — Carter

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,880
• Household income: $92,485
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 333.0

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.65%
• Current HPI: 262.1991
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-29.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $169,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $189,900 NTREIS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $199,900 NTREIS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $229,900 NTREIS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $239,900 NTREIS
• 2017-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-05-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-01-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-08-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-12-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-12-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,383 · +17.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.