154 Cumberland Rd · Flowood, MS 39047

$155,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 866 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 527 Days on market

Built 1987 6,534 sqft lot $179/sqft · at area comps Est $155k · at est. ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable detached home in Rez Area! Perfect For First-Time Buyers or Singles, This Home Features Ceramic Tile, Neutral Colors, A Great Room With Fireplace, Kitchen With Stove, And Laundry Room And a 15'x15' Deck in A Privacy-Fenced Yard. Seller Will Fix Front Shutter.It's Conveniently Located Between Spillway Rd. & Lakeland

Key facts

• Kitchen with stove
• Laundry room
• Deck

Tags

• CERAMIC TILE
• GREAT ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• KITCHEN WITH STOVE
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $474 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.3% in Flowood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#10 in MS, #3,075 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 433 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 527 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 527 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.10%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,588
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: 0.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
147 A Cumberland Rd	0.05mi	2/1.0	866 (0%)	11mo	$139,000	$161	89
168b Cumberland Rd	0.03mi	2/1.0	835 (-4%)	11mo	$159,900	$191	84
170-B Cumberland Rd	0.04mi	2/1.0	900 (+4%)	21mo	$160,000	$178	74
142 Cumberland Rd Unit B	0.08mi	2/1.0	927 (+7%)	17mo	$150,000	$162	70
12 S Brandy Ct	0.09mi	2/1.5	970 (+12%)	12mo	$150,000	$155	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $4,837
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $42,160
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39047

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 433
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,819 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,031/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $474

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,219

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $562	-5% $518	+0% $474	+5% $430	+10% $386
Rent	-10% $330	-5% $402	+0% $474	+5% $546	+10% $617
Rate	-1.0pp $552	-0.5pp $513	base $474	+0.5pp $434	+1.0pp $393

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
183 Cumberland Rd Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1097	$1,750	$1.60	22d	1	0.14mi
520 Vine Dr Flowood, MS	2.0–3.0	2.0	1114	$1,305	$1.17	14d	8	1.23mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $155,000 Active 527 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $155,000 Active 526 DOM
3. 2025-08-22
   price $155,000 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Affordable detached home in Rez Area! Perfect For First-Time Buyers or Singles, This Home Features Ceramic Tile, Neutral Colors, A Great Room With Fireplace, Kitchen With Stove, And Laundry Room And a 15'x15' Deck in A Privacy-Fenced Yard. Seller Will Fix Front Shutter.It's Conveniently Located Between Spillway Rd. & Lakeland

4. 2024-12-20
   listed $170,000 Active 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Affordable detached home in Rez Area! Perfect For First-Time Buyers or Singles, This Home Features Ceramic Tile, Neutral Colors, A Great Room With Fireplace, Kitchen With Stove, And Laundry Room And a 15'x15' Deck in A Privacy-Fenced Yard. Seller Will Fix Front Shutter.It's Conveniently Located Between Spillway Rd. & Lakeland

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,031 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,225 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$193/yr (+$16/mo · 18.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,031
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,746
• − Management: −$1,746
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $3,339
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$801
• After-tax cash flow: $4,884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Flowood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #3075

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 9,222
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $100,347
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.01%
• Current HPI: 162.9709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $155,000 MLSU
• 2024-12-20 Listed $170,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,031 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.