195 Cider Creek Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$215,840

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,191 sqft · Land · 204 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $181/sqft · at area comps Est $221k · at est. $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

195 Cider Creek Drive combines charm, smart design, and added curb appeal thanks to its alley-access lot-placing the focus on a welcoming front elevation in Harvest Ridge, Elgin's award-winning master-planned community. This one-story home features a rear detached shed, rear covered patio, and a thoughtfully designed interior with granite Blanco Atlantico kitchen countertops, a black appliance package with a gas range, and coordinating white cabinets. The primary suite offers a walk-in closet, walk-in shower, and silestone vanities. Enjoy natural light throughout the home, walk-in closets at the secondary bedrooms, and a tankless water heater. Live where community comes to life with resort-style amenities, fishing ponds, pickleball courts, and a full-time Lifestyle Director planning year-round events-plus the convenience of an on-site elementary school just steps away.

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Walk in closet
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• 42 INCH UPPER CABINETS
• VINYL FLOORING
• WALK IN CLOSET
• WALK IN SHOWER
• RAISED SILESTONE VANITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $216k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $189,939 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.69%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,713
• List price: $215,840
• Delta: -2.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $129,635
• Equity at exit: $194,446

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.17×
• Total profit: $372,971
• Equity at exit: $419,330

Cash invested: $60,435 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,068 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,132
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,833

Max offer price $215,840

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,960
• Closing costs: $6,475
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	43d	1	0.77mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	1d	1	0.77mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	19d	1	0.84mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	11d	1	0.87mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	1d	6	0.92mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	0.96mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	14d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,840 Active 204 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,840 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,840 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,840 Active 201 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,840 Active 199 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,840 Active 195 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,840 Active 194 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,840 Active 193 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $215,840 Active 190 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,840 Active 189 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,840 Active 188 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,840 Active 187 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,840 Active 186 DOM
14. 2026-02-18
    listed $215,840 Active 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    195 Cider Creek Drive combines charm, smart design, and added curb appeal thanks to its alley-access lot-placing the focus on a welcoming front elevation in Harvest Ridge, Elgin's award-winning master-planned community. This one-story home features a rear detached shed, rear covered patio, and a thoughtfully designed interior with granite Blanco Atlantico kitchen countertops, a black appliance package with a gas range, and coordinating white cabinets. The primary suite offers a walk-in closet, walk-in shower, and silestone vanities. Enjoy natural light throughout the home, walk-in closets at the secondary bedrooms, and a tankless water heater. Live where community comes to life with resort-style amenities, fishing ponds, pickleball courts, and a full-time Lifestyle Director planning year-round events-plus the convenience of an on-site elementary school just steps away.

15. 2025-11-26
    listed $215,840 Active 756-char remark

    Show marketing remark (756 chars)

    MLS# 5399330 - Built by Brohn Homes - Feb 2026 completion! ~ 195 Cider Creek Drive is a cozy, cottage style home full of charm and modern finishes. This thoughtfully designed one-story home in Harvest Ridge, Elgin’s award-winning master-planned community, features granite countertops, 42-inch upper cabinets with tons of space, and vinyl flooring throughout the main living areas. The primary suite offers a walk-in closet, walk-in shower, and raised silestone vanities for a clean, modern finish. Outside your door, enjoy resort-style amenities like a sparkling pool, fishing ponds, playscapes, sports courts, food truck nights, and a full-time Lifestyle Director—plus the convenience of the onsite elementary school just a short walk awa195

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,875 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,950 · $329/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,075/yr (+$173/mo · 110.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,090
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$1,079
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,985
• − Management: −$1,985
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$6,279
• Taxable loss: −$1,317
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$316
• After-tax cash flow: $2,545/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $215,840 Zillow
• 2025-11-26 Listed $215,840 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,875 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.