212 Outlaw Dr · Liberty Hill, TX 78642

$299,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · Land · 41 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand energy-efficient home available May 2026. Prepare dinner in the L-shaped kitchen while chatting with guests in the open dining and family rooms. Linen cabinets with black pearl granite countertops, warm beige EVP flooring, and warm multi-tone taupe carpet in our Chic package. Small-town charm meets big-city amenities in the heart of this Liberty Hill community. Situated just off Hwy 29, the “Americana Collection” at Butler Farms features fabulous features like walk-in showers, covered patios and designer curated interior packages. Find your dream home in this gorgeous community located in the highly-acclaimed Liberty Hill ISD. Known for their energy-efficient features, our

Key facts

• Covered patios
• L-shaped kitchen
• Linen cabinets

Tags

• L-SHAPED KITCHEN
• OPEN DINING AND FAMILY ROOMS
• LINEN CABINETS
• COVERED PATIOS
• WALK-IN SHOWERS
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT FEATURES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-156 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.8% in Liberty Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#495 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty Hill ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #160 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bill Burden El (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 808 students, 19% FRL); Liberty Hill Middle (math 44% / reading 50%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 944 students, 26% FRL); Liberty Hill H S (math 39% / reading 69%, grade C-, #422 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,001 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1509 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,953 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.23%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-65,039
• Equity at exit: $44,729

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-94,551
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78642

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1509
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,757/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,387

Max offer price $272,452

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $14	-5% $-71	+0% $-156	+5% $-241	+10% $-326
Rent	-10% $-329	-5% $-242	+0% $-156	+5% $-69	+10% $17
Rate	-1.0pp $-5	-0.5pp $-80	base $-156	+0.5pp $-234	+1.0pp $-313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
201 Outlaw Dr Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,950	$1.30	0d	1	0.06mi
201 Longmount Cv Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,995	$1.38	0d	1	0.11mi
213 Wild Spur Ln Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,850	$1.46	25d	1	0.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-22
   soldstatus Closed
2. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-11
   listed $299,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,757 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,490 · $457/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,733/yr (+$311/mo · 212.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$1,757
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,102
• − Management: −$2,102
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$7,210
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,730
• After-tax cash flow: $-140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827420
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $81,084
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2965
• State rank: #160 of 826 in TX

Livability — Liberty Hill

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #495
• US rank: #9892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Liberty Hill, TX
• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 26,434
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,434
• Household income: $132,958
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 220.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 14% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.62%
• Current HPI: 228.5772
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.89%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $299,990 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,757 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.