108 Morningside Dr Unit C · Bliss, NY 14009

$150,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1939 0.31 ac lot Est $140k · 7% over $19/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 108 Morningside Drive at the Java Lake Colony, an absolutely spectacular and truly one-of-a-kind log cabin retreat tucked among the trees just steps from beautiful Java Lake. Situated on a rare combination of three lots with frontage on both Morningside Drive and Summerset Drive, this property offers incredible privacy, future potential, and access to Java Lake and the amenities of the Java Lake Colony, making this an incredible opportunity within one of Western New York’s most unique lake communities. From the moment you arrive, the towering stone chimney, rustic log construction, exposed beams, original woodwork, and soaring ceilings create an atmosphere that feels authen

Key facts

• Incredible privacy
• Access to java lake
• Three lots

Tags

• LOG CABIN RETREAT
• THREE LOTS
• FRONTAGE ON MORNINGSIDE DRIVE
• FRONTAGE ON SUMMERSET DRIVE
• INCREDIBLE PRIVACY
• ACCESS TO JAVA LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $230

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Log construction; Single-story; Existing (previously built)
• Construction: Block and stone foundation
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Private road access; Lake frontage on Java Lake; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating
• Interior features: Solid surface counters; Loft

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,065 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Yorkshire-Pioneer Central School District (town): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #358 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Wyoming County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Wyoming County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $150k implies a 173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $118,043 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.47%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,432
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1775 Birch Cres	0.35mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (-1%)	10mo	$265,000	$255	69
34 S Parkway Dr	0.17mi	2/1.0 (+1)	968 (-8%)	11mo	$60,000	$62	65
41 Morningside Dr	0.15mi	1/1.0	930 (-11%)	17mo	$125,000	$134	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $32,489
• Equity at exit: $90,983

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $102,565
• Equity at exit: $162,207

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14009

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,180 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,230/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $-121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,334

Max offer price $128,549

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-21
   listed $150,000 Active
2. 2009-07-02
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,230 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,383 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: +$152/yr (+$13/mo · 6.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,230
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,133
• − Management: −$1,133
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$4,075
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$978
• After-tax cash flow: $-479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yorkshire-Pioneer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608970
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,735
• Composite: 44.02/100
• National rank: #2885
• State rank: #358 of 590 in NY

Livability — Bliss

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1065
• US rank: #21289

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,606
• Population (ZIP): 5,787

Population outlook (Wyoming County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,976 people
• By 2030: 37,826 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 35,585 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 32,841 · -15.7%
• By 2075: 25,920 · -33.5%
• By 2100: 19,082 · -51.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Iranian 2% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wyoming

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.2) · D 25.9% · R 74.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -48.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.2 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+51.0 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.65%
• Current HPI: 281.8451
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+172.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $150,000 WNYREIS
• 2009-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,230 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.