74711 Dillon Rd Spc 862 · Sky Valley, CA 92241

$81,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 253 Days on market

Built 2002 Average condition 1,600 sqft lot $102/sqft · 30% above area Est $63k · 30% over ↓ 31% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ALL AGED PARK! 13 hot spring mineral pools, pickleball, tennis, various activities and events, cafe, chef who delivers dinners and so much more! RARE 2 bedroom park model with extra large California room, divided between living room and 2nd bedroom. Vaulted ceilings, large deck overlooking San Jacinto mountain and sunsets. Shed and fenced yard. LOWEST space rent tier! $683 per month. 760-218-9974 for more info

Key facts

• Large deck
• Tennis
• Fenced yard

Tags

• HOT SPRING MINERAL POOLS
• PICKLEBALL
• TENNIS
• CALIFORNIA ROOM
• LARGE DECK
• FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $82k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $732 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 9.6% in Sky Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,041 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $566 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 253 days — a 12% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,072 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 253 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.31%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $63,000
• List price: $81,900
• Delta: 30.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
74711 Dillon Rd Spc 1004	0.00mi	1/1.5 (-1)	800 (0%)	14mo	$75,000	$94	81
74711 Dillon Rd #713	0.00mi	1/1.5 (-1)	800 (0%)	16mo	$74,000	$93	80
74711 Dillon Rd #183	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	750 (-6%)	14mo	$70,000	$93	72
74711 Dillon Rd #869	0.00mi	2/1.0	700 (-12%)	11mo	$77,500	$111	70
74711 Dillon Rd #1011	0.00mi	2/1.0	700 (-12%)	16mo	$57,000	$81	66
74711 Dillon Rd #706	0.00mi	2/1.0	700 (-12%)	18mo	$82,000	$117	64
74711 Dillon Rd #974	0.00mi	2/1.0	683 (-15%)	14mo	$85,000	$124	64
74711 Dillon Rd #714	0.02mi	2/2.0	700 (-12%)	18mo	$64,500	$92	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $33,383
• Equity at exit: $12,212

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.89×
• Total profit: $89,212
• Equity at exit: $7,081

Cash invested: $22,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92241

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,643 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$429
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$102 /mo · $1,228/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $732

Break-even live

Break-even rent $716

Max offer price $81,900

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,475
• Closing costs: $2,457
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $81,900 Active 253 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $81,900 Active 252 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $81,900 Active 251 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $81,900 Active 250 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $81,900 Active 248 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $81,900 Active 247 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $81,900 Active 244 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $81,900 Active 243 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $81,900 Active 242 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $81,900 Active 239 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $81,900 Active 238 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $81,900 Active 237 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $81,900 Active 236 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $81,900 Active 235 DOM
15. 2026-03-20
    price $81,900 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    ALL AGED PARK! 13 hot spring mineral pools, pickleball, tennis, various activities and events, cafe, chef who delivers dinners and so much more! RARE 2 bedroom park model with extra large California room, divided between living room and 2nd bedroom. Vaulted ceilings, large deck overlooking San Jacinto mountain and sunsets. Shed and fenced yard. LOWEST space rent tier! $683 per month. 760-218-9974 for more info

16. 2026-03-20
    price $65,000 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    ALL AGED PARK! 13 hot spring mineral pools, pickleball, tennis, various activities and events, cafe, chef who delivers dinners and so much more! RARE 2 bedroom park model with extra large California room, divided between living room and 2nd bedroom. Vaulted ceilings, large deck overlooking San Jacinto mountain and sunsets. Shed and fenced yard. LOWEST space rent tier! $683 per month. 760-218-9974 for more info

17. 2025-10-06
    listed $81,900 Active 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    ALL AGED PARK! 13 hot spring mineral pools, pickleball, tennis, various activities and events, cafe, chef who delivers dinners and so much more! RARE 2 bedroom park model with extra large California room, divided between living room and 2nd bedroom. Vaulted ceilings, large deck overlooking San Jacinto mountain and sunsets. Shed and fenced yard. LOWEST space rent tier! $683 per month. 760-218-9974 for more info

18. 2025-06-02
    historical
19. 2025-06-02
    status Pending
20. 2024-08-23
    price $81,900
21. 2024-06-10
    listed $87,900 Active
22. 2024-05-06
    historical
23. 2024-02-11
    price $99,900
24. 2023-11-28
    price $102,900
25. 2023-11-05
    listed $119,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,588
• − Property taxes: −$1,228
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,577
• − Management: −$1,577
• − Depreciation: −$2,383
• Taxable income: $7,955
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,909
• After-tax cash flow: $6,876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This park model has average condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value. The deck and exterior walls could be repainted to improve its appearance and increase its marketability.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Deck — Some wear visible on the deck surface.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and resale value.
• Both Replace deck surface — Improves safety and aesthetics, boosting both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Deck · Some wear visible on the deck surface.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$500–3,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Replace deck surface — Improves safety and aesthetics, boosting both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Springs Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629550
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,638
• Composite: 26.76/100
• National rank: #7131
• State rank: #328 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sky Valley

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1041
• US rank: #25108

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sky Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,624

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 16% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 38% Chinese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.23%
• Current HPI: 400.5663
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-31.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $81,900 GPSMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $65,000 GPSMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $81,900 GPSMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2025-06-02 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2024-08-23 Price Changed $81,900 GPSMLS
• 2024-06-10 Listed $87,900 GPSMLS
• 2024-05-06 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2024-02-11 Price Changed $99,900 GPSMLS
• 2023-11-28 Price Changed $102,900 GPSMLS
• 2023-11-05 Listed $119,000 GPSMLS