10311 Mills Point Dr · Houston, TX 77070

$199,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 2005 5,248 sqft lot $128/sqft · 18% below area Est $244k · 18% under $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location!!! The home presents an open floor plan from the kitchen to the living room. The entrance has a spacious dining area that can also be used as a second living room. The property is sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller has no knowledge, buyer should perform their due diligence and make their own assessments. To help visualize this homes floor plan and to highlight its potential virtual furnishings may have been added to photos found in this listing.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Spacious dining area
• 5,248 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-264 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hancock El (math 20% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,927 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 965 students, 78% FRL); Bleyl Middle (math 35% / reading 45%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 1,451 students, 72% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cypress-Fairbanks ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 242 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,321 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.66%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,296
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -18.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10215 Riderdale Park Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+3%)	3mo	$289,000	$179	83
10123 Appleridge Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+2%)	2mo	$229,900	$144	79
12602 Hickory Bend Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-5%)	3mo	$230,000	$154	75
13038 Bramford Point Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+4%)	4mo	$265,000	$162	75
10206 Hillmere	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,598 (+2%)	9mo	$280,000	$175	72
13014 Bramford Point Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	5mo	$265,000	$184	70
12703 Autumn Mill Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,682 (+7%)	7mo	$239,500	$142	69
12626 Lacey Crest Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,394 (-11%)	8mo	$193,000	$138	61
13203 Akron Oak St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-11%)	6mo	$250,000	$178	61
12626 Duchess Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,731 (+10%)	5mo	$299,999	$173	60
12826 Regal Pine Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,717 (+10%)	0mo	$269,900	$157	60
12627 Autumn Mill Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	6mo	$209,900	$156	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-52,688
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-81,101
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77070

• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,772 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$496 /mo · $5,952/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,107

Max offer price $153,321

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-151	-5% $-208	+0% $-264	+5% $-321	+10% $-377
Rent	-10% $-404	-5% $-334	+0% $-264	+5% $-194	+10% $-124
Rate	-1.0pp $-164	-0.5pp $-213	base $-264	+0.5pp $-316	+1.0pp $-369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12627 Day Hollow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,750	$1.26	0d	1	0.29mi
10610 Mills Way Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1921	$2,425	$1.26	26d	1	0.46mi
12856 Perry Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1211	$1,780	$1.47	26d	1	0.50mi
12850 Perry Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1141	$2,149	$1.88	0d	35	0.55mi
13030 Perry Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,825	$1.95	4d	32	0.60mi
9617 Grant Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,455	$1.09	46d	1	0.64mi
12210 Ferncrest Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1793	$2,200	$1.23	46d	1	0.64mi
12534 Blinnwood Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1812	$2,080	$1.15	0d	1	0.66mi
12619 Aubreywood Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2187	$2,205	$1.01	7d	1	0.74mi
13611 Perry Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,727	$1.89	1d	38	0.75mi
9611 Grant Rd Unit 9668 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,460	$1.10	46d	1	0.77mi
9611 Grant Rd Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,465	$1.10	7d	1	0.77mi
9611 Grant Rd Unit 9648 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,489	$1.12	12d	1	0.77mi
9611 Grant Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,465	$1.10	9d	1	0.77mi
9611 Grant Rd Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,449	$1.09	1d	1	0.77mi
9611 Grant Rd Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,500	$1.13	0d	1	0.79mi
11907 Cedarcliff Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2087	$1,806	$0.87	46d	1	0.91mi
11111 Saathoff Dr Cypress, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	849	$1,344	$1.58	1d	16	0.93mi
13101 Jones Rd Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1024	$1,437	$1.40	46d	3	0.96mi
11131 Saathoff Dr Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,500	$1.37	46d	1	0.97mi
10325 Cypresswood Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,155	$2.16	1d	35	1.04mi
13802 Napoli Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$1,990	$2.34	1d	37	1.07mi
13801 Napoli Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,602	$1.66	0d	35	1.09mi
11111 Grant Rd Unit 3112 Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,824	$1.33	0d	1	1.13mi
11111 Grant Rd Unit 11144 Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,813	$1.33	12d	1	1.13mi
19407 Tomball Pkwy Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,450	$1.36	26d	1	1.13mi
19401 Tomball Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$1,786	$1.87	1d	26	1.13mi
19433 Tomball Pkwy Unit 1128 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,198	$0.88	46d	1	1.14mi
11925 Jones Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1126	$1,735	$1.54	46d	1	1.16mi
11300 Regency Green Dr Cypress, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	947	$1,564	$1.65	1d	35	1.16mi
11925 Jones Rd Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1126	$1,675	$1.49	7d	1	1.17mi
11925 Jones Rd Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1126	$1,700	$1.51	1d	1	1.17mi
11925 Jones Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1126	$1,675	$1.49	9d	1	1.17mi
11925 Jones Rd Unit 11962 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1126	$1,615	$1.43	46d	1	1.17mi
10300 Cypresswood Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	902	$1,768	$1.96	0d	38	1.17mi
13920 Mandolin Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	881	$1,821	$2.07	1d	25	1.22mi
11925 Jones Rd Unit 11948 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1126	$1,699	$1.51	12d	1	1.22mi
11925 Jones Rd Unit 2112 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1126	$1,710	$1.52	0d	1	1.22mi
11920 Jansells Crossing Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1126	$1,449	$1.29	26d	1	1.24mi
10903 Cypresswood Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,793	$1.70	26d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $199,999 Pending 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,999 Pending 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,999 Pending 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,999 Pending 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,999 Pending 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Pending 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,999 Pending 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $199,999 Pending 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,999 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,999 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,999 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $199,999 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    price $220,000 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    Location!!! The home presents an open floor plan from the kitchen to the living room. The entrance has a spacious dining area that can also be used as a second living room. The property is sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller has no knowledge, buyer should perform their due diligence and make their own assessments. To help visualize this homes floor plan and to highlight its potential virtual furnishings may have been added to photos found in this listing.

18. 2026-04-09
    listed $230,000 Active 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    Location!!! The home presents an open floor plan from the kitchen to the living room. The entrance has a spacious dining area that can also be used as a second living room. The property is sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller has no knowledge, buyer should perform their due diligence and make their own assessments. To help visualize this homes floor plan and to highlight its potential virtual furnishings may have been added to photos found in this listing.

19. 2024-03-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,952 · $496/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,952 · $496/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$5,952
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,701
• − Management: −$1,701
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$6,543
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,570
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,229
• Household income: $77,397
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2924.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 35% Hispanic / Latino 31% Black 19% Two or more races 16% Asian 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.95%
• Current HPI: 232.3128
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.91%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,952 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.