8886 Coqui Song Ln · Connerton, FL 34637

$308,490

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,851 sqft · Townhouse · 80 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Est $348k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The first level of this two-story townhome is host to the communal living and dining spaces, arranged among a convenient and contemporary open floorplan. A sliding glass door at the back of the home leads to a covered patio ideal for relaxing and entertaining. A loft and three bedrooms occupy the second level, including the spacious owner's suite.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Covered patio
• Garage

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• SPACIOUS OWNER'S SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price available

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage (1 parking space total)
• Home design: Single-family new construction; Juniper floor plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1851

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new-construction Juniper plan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $308k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.3% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $287,218 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.90%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $347,988
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8859 Coqui Song Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,851 (0%)	4mo	$309,990	$167	95
8775 Coquil Song Ln	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,601 (-14%)	7mo	$268,040	$167	68
9044 Gallantree Pl	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,851 (0%)	23mo	$344,900	$186	66
9078 Gallantree Pl	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,851 (0%)	23mo	$348,265	$188	66
9112 Gallantree Pl	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,851 (0%)	22mo	$348,265	$188	65
9106 Gallantree Pl	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,851 (0%)	23mo	$348,765	$188	64
9126 Gallantree Pl	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,851 (0%)	22mo	$344,990	$186	64
9443 Runaway Breeze Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,851 (0%)	13mo	$538,400	$291	61
8953 Gallantree Pl	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,601 (-14%)	9mo	$300,000	$187	57
9084 Gallantree Pl	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,601 (-14%)	23mo	$300,805	$188	43
9118 Gallantree Pl	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,601 (-14%)	22mo	$309,000	$193	42
9124 Gallantree Pl	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,601 (-14%)	22mo	$304,900	$190	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-21,872
• Equity at exit: $66,572

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $10,041
• Equity at exit: $63,381

Cash invested: $86,377 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,872 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,618
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,627/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,699

Max offer price $308,490

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,122
• Closing costs: $9,255
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8862 Gallantree Pl Unit 8862-Townhouse Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,195	$1.37	12d	1	0.25mi
22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,650	$1.42	17d	1	0.30mi
9436 Scouter Bee Pl Land O' Lakes, FL	2.0	2.5	1951	$2,350	$1.20	4d	1	0.88mi
9645 Carabiner Way Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,700	$1.44	24d	1	0.98mi
9676 Nyssa St Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,099	$1.31	12d	1	1.04mi
21818 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,250	$1.41	14d	1	1.07mi
21869 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,400	$1.50	24d	1	1.12mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	4d	1	1.13mi
9750 Campanula Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	2208	$2,700	$1.22	24d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $308,490 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $308,490 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $308,490 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $308,490 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $308,390 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $307,390 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $307,290 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $307,290 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $307,290 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $307,190 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $307,190 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $307,190 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $317,190 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $317,190 Active 62 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,280
• − Property taxes: −$4,627
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,757
• − Management: −$2,757
• − Depreciation: −$8,974
• Taxable loss: −$3,473
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$833
• After-tax cash flow: $2,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story townhome is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental appeal by offering convenience and modern amenities.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental appeal by offering convenience and modern amenities. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B