5422 Portland Rd NE #129 · Salem, OR 97305

$37,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,876 sqft · Manufactured public records · 338 Days on market

Built 1982 $20/sqft · 63% below area ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Need Space? Here's your chance to own one of the largest homes in this 55+ park! This spacious home offers the perfect canvas for you to create your dream living space. With some updating this home can shine. Featuring a large family room and living room with cozy gas fireplace. Carport with 2 parking spaces. This home has 3 beds & 2 baths with a large laundry room. Easy access to freeway and nearby shopping.

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• Large family room
• Large laundry room

Tags

• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• EASY ACCESS TO FREEWAY
• NEARBY SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 62.1% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $259 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 338 days — a 12% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.

Recommended offer $33,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 338 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 62.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 199.18%
• DSCR: 9.86
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,663
• List price: $37,500
• Delta: -62.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4322 Lemon St NE	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,864 (-1%)	17mo	$200,000	$107	77
5158 Silver Lp NE	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,724 (-8%)	5mo	$149,900	$87	70
5422 Portland Rd NE Unit 106C	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,695 (-10%)	19mo	$127,500	$75	68
4249 Larch St NE	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-14%)	9mo	$115,000	$71	64
5031 Copper Crk NE #10	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,647 (-12%)	12mo	$50,000	$30	60
5161 Copper Crk NE #180	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-14%)	17mo	$139,900	$86	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.00×
• Total profit: $105,002
• Equity at exit: $5,591

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.35×
• Total profit: $234,676
• Equity at exit: $3,242

Cash invested: $10,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97305

• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,609 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$197
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $1,743

Break-even live

Break-even rent $403

Max offer price $37,500

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,375
• Closing costs: $1,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4707 Astronaut Ave NE Salem, OR	4.0	2.5	2000	$2,795	$1.40	13d	1	0.37mi
4748 Astronaut Ave NE Salem, OR	4.0	2.5	2362	$3,050	$1.29	13d	1	0.43mi
4115 Geranium Loop NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1316	$2,250	$1.71	13d	1	0.64mi
4927 Orbit Ave NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1598	$2,395	$1.50	21d	1	0.76mi
4823 Settlers Dr NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1228	$2,395	$1.95	43d	1	0.78mi
5034 Armstrong Ave NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,550	$1.82	43d	1	0.82mi
5150 Constellation Ave NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1869	$2,795	$1.50	13d	1	0.93mi
4473 47th Ave NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1244	$2,200	$1.77	43d	1	1.25mi
4334 Ward Pl NE Unit 1 Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1250	$1,775	$1.42	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $37,500 Active 338 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $37,500 Active 336 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $37,500 Active 333 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $37,500 Active 332 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $37,500 Active 331 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $37,500 Active 330 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $37,500 Active 326 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $37,500 Active 325 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $37,500 Active 324 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $37,500 Active 323 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $37,500 Active 322 DOM
12. 2026-05-12
    price $37,500 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    Need Space? Here's your chance to own one of the largest homes in this 55+ park! This spacious home offers the perfect canvas for you to create your dream living space. With some updating this home can shine. Featuring a large family room and living room with cozy gas fireplace. Carport with 2 parking spaces. This home has 3 beds & 2 baths with a large laundry room. Easy access to freeway and nearby shopping.

13. 2025-12-16
    price $59,500 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    Need Space? Here's your chance to own one of the largest homes in this 55+ park! This spacious home offers the perfect canvas for you to create your dream living space. With some updating this home can shine. Featuring a large family room and living room with cozy gas fireplace. Carport with 2 parking spaces. This home has 3 beds & 2 baths with a large laundry room. Easy access to freeway and nearby shopping.

14. 2025-11-11
    price $64,500 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    Need Space? Here's your chance to own one of the largest homes in this 55+ park! This spacious home offers the perfect canvas for you to create your dream living space. With some updating this home can shine. Featuring a large family room and living room with cozy gas fireplace. Carport with 2 parking spaces. This home has 3 beds & 2 baths with a large laundry room. Easy access to freeway and nearby shopping.

15. 2025-09-12
    price $69,500 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    Need Space? Here's your chance to own one of the largest homes in this 55+ park! This spacious home offers the perfect canvas for you to create your dream living space. With some updating this home can shine. Featuring a large family room and living room with cozy gas fireplace. Carport with 2 parking spaces. This home has 3 beds & 2 baths with a large laundry room. Easy access to freeway and nearby shopping.

16. 2025-08-23
    price $75,000 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    Need Space? Here's your chance to own one of the largest homes in this 55+ park! This spacious home offers the perfect canvas for you to create your dream living space. With some updating this home can shine. Featuring a large family room and living room with cozy gas fireplace. Carport with 2 parking spaces. This home has 3 beds & 2 baths with a large laundry room. Easy access to freeway and nearby shopping.

17. 2025-07-12
    listed $79,000 Active 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    Need Space? Here's your chance to own one of the largest homes in this 55+ park! This spacious home offers the perfect canvas for you to create your dream living space. With some updating this home can shine. Featuring a large family room and living room with cozy gas fireplace. Carport with 2 parking spaces. This home has 3 beds & 2 baths with a large laundry room. Easy access to freeway and nearby shopping.

18. 1994-01-21
    soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,275 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,275 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,101
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$188
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,505
• − Management: −$2,505
• − Depreciation: −$1,091
• Taxable income: $21,648
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,196
• After-tax cash flow: $15,719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• City population: 193,601
• Population (ZIP): 45,044

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 44% Two or more races 16% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 3% Native American 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.50%
• Current HPI: 296.3428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-10.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $37,500 WVMLS
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $59,500 WVMLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $64,500 WVMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $69,500 WVMLS
• 2025-08-23 Price Changed $75,000 WVMLS
• 2025-07-12 Listed $79,000 WVMLS
• 1994-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,275 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.