37827 Mission Hills Ave · Pasadena Hills, FL 33541

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1978 3,613 sqft lot Est $102k · 23% over $114/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This nice two bedroom, 2 bath furnished mobile home is located in Spanish Trails Village. From the entrance off the carport you enter the bright kitchen. To the left is your dining room which is open to your spacious living room. There is a slider out to your Florida room to relax and enjoy the weather when it permits. In the back of the home is your master bedroom with en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. The second bedroom is located near the master. In the master is a door leading to your shed which houses the washer and dryer. So convenient! You don’t have to go through the kitchen and through the carport to do laundry. The monthly fee is $80.00 a month which includes trash. You are allowed two pets less than 25 lbs and you own the lot here. The community has a clubhouse with activities, community pool & shuffleboard. Call for your appointment to view today.

Key facts

• Front florida room
• 3,613 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• GATED ACTIVE COMMUNITY
• DOUBLE SIDE-BY-SIDE DRIVEWAY
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN CONCEPT DINING ROOM
• FRONT FLORIDA ROOM
• CONVENIENT INTERIOR DOOR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Total annual fees $1,368
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $114; Association amenities: clubhouse, gated community, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court, spa/hot tub; Association fee includes pool, private road maintenance, recreational facilities, and trash; Association approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed (dogs and cats), max pet weight 25 lbs; Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Association name: Margaret Thomas

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces south
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof with roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Front porch; Hurricane shutters; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Mature landscaping; Asphalt/paved road; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closet
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.6% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Zephyrhills Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 615 students, 81% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 862 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $125k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.66%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $101,952
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7133 EL Matador St	0.10mi	2/2.0	864 (0%)	11mo	$79,000	$91	86
37843 Barcelona Ave	0.19mi	2/2.0	840 (-3%)	3mo	$99,000	$118	84
7117 EL Rancho Way #367	0.20mi	2/2.0	896 (+4%)	4mo	$118,000	$132	82
37648 Campo Ave	0.16mi	2/2.0	972 (+12%)	11mo	$114,000	$117	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-6,775
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-26
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 862
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,546 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,421/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$114
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,190

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $352	-5% $317	+0% $282	+5% $246	+10% $211
Rent	-10% $160	-5% $221	+0% $282	+5% $343	+10% $404
Rate	-1.0pp $345	-0.5pp $314	base $282	+0.5pp $249	+1.0pp $216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38112 Townview Ave Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	26d	1	0.22mi
37814 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,395	$1.30	6d	1	0.29mi
7660 Emerson Hill Cir Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$1,970	$1.83	0d	34	0.47mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	26d	1	0.78mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	26d	1	0.81mi
38485 County Road 54 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	26d	1	0.94mi
37732 Cecil Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	26d	1	0.97mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,732	$2.02	0d	141	1.14mi
8129 Cass Rd Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,100	$2.04	26d	1	1.24mi
6052 10th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	644	$1,200	$1.86	26d	1	1.27mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	6d	1	1.28mi
38647 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	814	$1,350	$1.66	26d	1	1.45mi
38621 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,495	$1.44	1d	1	1.48mi
39132 County Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	26d	1	1.48mi
37812 15th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	26d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $114 · $1,368/yr
• Likely covers: trashpool

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $125,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-03-12
    listed $125,000 Active
15. 2025-10-16
    historical
16. 2025-05-14
    status Active
17. 2025-05-14
    price $129,000
18. 2025-04-24
    historical
19. 2024-10-24
    listed $133,000 Active
20. 2020-07-08
    soldstatus $60,000
21. 2020-07-02
    soldstatus $60,000 Sold 887-char remark

    Show marketing remark (887 chars)

    This nice two bedroom, 2 bath furnished mobile home is located in Spanish Trails Village. From the entrance off the carport you enter the bright kitchen. To the left is your dining room which is open to your spacious living room. There is a slider out to your Florida room to relax and enjoy the weather when it permits. In the back of the home is your master bedroom with en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. The second bedroom is located near the master. In the master is a door leading to your shed which houses the washer and dryer. So convenient! You don’t have to go through the kitchen and through the carport to do laundry. The monthly fee is $80.00 a month which includes trash. You are allowed two pets less than 25 lbs and you own the lot here. The community has a clubhouse with activities, community pool & shuffleboard. Call for your appointment to view today.

22. 2020-06-08
    status Pending 887-char remark

    Show marketing remark (887 chars)

    This nice two bedroom, 2 bath furnished mobile home is located in Spanish Trails Village. From the entrance off the carport you enter the bright kitchen. To the left is your dining room which is open to your spacious living room. There is a slider out to your Florida room to relax and enjoy the weather when it permits. In the back of the home is your master bedroom with en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. The second bedroom is located near the master. In the master is a door leading to your shed which houses the washer and dryer. So convenient! You don’t have to go through the kitchen and through the carport to do laundry. The monthly fee is $80.00 a month which includes trash. You are allowed two pets less than 25 lbs and you own the lot here. The community has a clubhouse with activities, community pool & shuffleboard. Call for your appointment to view today.

23. 2020-03-13
    status Active 887-char remark

    Show marketing remark (887 chars)

    This nice two bedroom, 2 bath furnished mobile home is located in Spanish Trails Village. From the entrance off the carport you enter the bright kitchen. To the left is your dining room which is open to your spacious living room. There is a slider out to your Florida room to relax and enjoy the weather when it permits. In the back of the home is your master bedroom with en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. The second bedroom is located near the master. In the master is a door leading to your shed which houses the washer and dryer. So convenient! You don’t have to go through the kitchen and through the carport to do laundry. The monthly fee is $80.00 a month which includes trash. You are allowed two pets less than 25 lbs and you own the lot here. The community has a clubhouse with activities, community pool & shuffleboard. Call for your appointment to view today.

24. 2020-03-06
    historical 887-char remark

    Show marketing remark (887 chars)

    This nice two bedroom, 2 bath furnished mobile home is located in Spanish Trails Village. From the entrance off the carport you enter the bright kitchen. To the left is your dining room which is open to your spacious living room. There is a slider out to your Florida room to relax and enjoy the weather when it permits. In the back of the home is your master bedroom with en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. The second bedroom is located near the master. In the master is a door leading to your shed which houses the washer and dryer. So convenient! You don’t have to go through the kitchen and through the carport to do laundry. The monthly fee is $80.00 a month which includes trash. You are allowed two pets less than 25 lbs and you own the lot here. The community has a clubhouse with activities, community pool & shuffleboard. Call for your appointment to view today.

25. 2020-03-02
    listed $64,900 Active 887-char remark

    Show marketing remark (887 chars)

    This nice two bedroom, 2 bath furnished mobile home is located in Spanish Trails Village. From the entrance off the carport you enter the bright kitchen. To the left is your dining room which is open to your spacious living room. There is a slider out to your Florida room to relax and enjoy the weather when it permits. In the back of the home is your master bedroom with en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. The second bedroom is located near the master. In the master is a door leading to your shed which houses the washer and dryer. So convenient! You don’t have to go through the kitchen and through the carport to do laundry. The monthly fee is $80.00 a month which includes trash. You are allowed two pets less than 25 lbs and you own the lot here. The community has a clubhouse with activities, community pool & shuffleboard. Call for your appointment to view today.

26. 2007-02-01
    soldstatus $62,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,421 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,421 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,558
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,421
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,485
• − Management: −$1,485
• − HOA: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,536
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$369
• After-tax cash flow: $3,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena Hills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+98.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-24 Listed $133,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-02 Sold (MLS) $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-02 Listed $64,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $62,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,421 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.