12873 N 171st Dr · Surprise, AZ 85388

$535,990

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,159 sqft · Land · 77 Days on market

Built 2026 6,600 sqft lot $170/sqft · 8% below area Est $582k · 8% under $109/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SELLER OFFERING INTEREST RATE AND CLOSING COST ASSISTANCE! Discover the ultimate blend of style, space, & comfort in this stunning 3159 sq ft 2-story floor plan. This home offers up to 7 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms. The kitchen is a showstopper, featuring a massive central island, granite countertops, and a walk-in pantry. Retreat to the private primary suite on the main level, complete with 2 sinks, a soaking tub, shower, and a large walk-in closet. This functional floor plan has the option to add a highly desirable main-level guest suite (bedroom & bath), while the upper level hosts a bright loft, four additional bedrooms. Plus, the 3-car tandem garage hosts all the extra space you need! With our streamlined selection process, you get to choose your preferred homesite, floor plan, and

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Large walk-in closet
• Granite countertops

Tags

• MASSIVE CENTRAL ISLAND
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• SOAKING TUB
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $536k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-967 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $396k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $360k (32.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $360k (32.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($504k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $360,261 (32.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.73%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $581,999
• List price: $535,990
• Delta: -7.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.28% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-80,505
• Equity at exit: $163,298

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-111,167
• Equity at exit: $202,515

Cash invested: $150,077 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85388

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,603 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,811
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$670 /mo · $8,040/yr
• Insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$109
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$757
• Net cashflow: $-967

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,827

Max offer price $396,057

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $133,998
• Closing costs: $16,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13103 N 174th Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	2.5	2899	$3,500	$1.21	43d	1	0.36mi
13559 N 174th Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2147	$2,200	$1.02	20d	1	0.53mi
17572 W Andora St Surprise, AZ	5.0	3.5	3826	$6,400	$1.67	43d	1	0.65mi
16576 W Jenan Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2270	$2,450	$1.08	24d	1	1.00mi
17762 W Watson Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	3318	$3,530	$1.06	24d	1	1.18mi
17856 W Watson Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	3336	$3,200	$0.96	24d	1	1.27mi
17236 W Country Gables Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2291	$2,795	$1.22	43d	1	1.43mi
15143 N 172nd Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	3.0	2291	$2,795	$1.22	43d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $109 · $1,308/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $535,990 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $535,990 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $535,990 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $535,990 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $535,990 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $535,990 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $535,990 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $535,990 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $535,990 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $535,990 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $535,990 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $535,990 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $535,990 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-04-02
    listed $535,990 Active 805-char remark

    Show marketing remark (805 chars)

    SELLER OFFERING INTEREST RATE AND CLOSING COST ASSISTANCE! Discover the ultimate blend of style, space, & comfort in this stunning 3159 sq ft 2-story floor plan. This home offers up to 7 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms. The kitchen is a showstopper, featuring a massive central island, granite countertops, and a walk-in pantry. Retreat to the private primary suite on the main level, complete with 2 sinks, a soaking tub, shower, and a large walk-in closet. This functional floor plan has the option to add a highly desirable main-level guest suite (bedroom & bath), while the upper level hosts a bright loft, four additional bedrooms. Plus, the 3-car tandem garage hosts all the extra space you need! With our streamlined selection process, you get to choose your preferred homesite, floor plan, and

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,231
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,024
• − Property taxes: −$8,040
• − Insurance: −$2,680
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,459
• − Management: −$3,459
• − HOA: −$1,308
• − Depreciation: −$15,592
• Taxable loss: −$21,330
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,119
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,485/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,369
• Household income: $112,164
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 224.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Current HPI: 272.9859
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $535,990 ARMLS

Property tax history

+19.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $351 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.