4362 Millwood Cir · Liverpool, NY 13090

$299,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1974 6,969 sqft lot Est $289k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious open split "ready to go" featuring updated main & 1/2 bath, newer furnace, hotwater heater, appliances, bedroom carpeting, kitchen flooring & a list of additional improvements! Eat in kitchen open to family room w/ brick wall faced wood fireplace, double wide patio door to patio & nice size fenced yard w/ pool & shed. Interior offers formal dining rm off kitchen, open living rm to front entry foyer, 3 upper spacious bdrms & full remodeled bath & main level 1/2 bath, lower level finished basement, 2 car garage, front entry covered porch & more, located on low traffic neck of cul de sac!

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Updated half bath
• Split-level home

Tags

• SPLIT-LEVEL HOME
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• BRIGHT AND INVITING LAYOUT
• DOUBLE-WIDE PATIO DOORS
• UPDATED FULL BATHROOM
• UPDATED HALF BATH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with storage; Garage door opener; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Sewer connected; Spring water source; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Two-story house; Resale property; Located on a cul-de-sac; Irregular residential lot; Faces a city street
• Construction: Aluminum siding and brick exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Block foundation; Copper plumbing; Built as an existing structure
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Fully fenced yard; Above-ground pool; Patio; Open porch; Gazebo; Shed(s); Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Free-standing range/oven; Range hood; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Total of 9 rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Kitchen/family room combo; Living/dining room; Skylights; Thermal windows; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#16 in NY, #363 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Liverpool Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #381 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $131k; list at $300k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $260,834 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.66%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7878 Morgan Rd	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,536 (+1%)	8mo	$300,000	$195	67
17 Mango Ln	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,450 (-5%)	7mo	$259,900	$179	66
22 Tree Line Dr	0.20mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,656 (+9%)	9mo	$301,000	$182	63
4389 Wetzel Rd	0.40mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,416 (-7%)	8mo	$257,500	$182	58
3 Gooseberry Ln	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,561 (+3%)	11mo	$340,000	$218	56
119 Sagamore Dr S	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,616 (+6%)	7mo	$298,625	$185	56
210 Blackberry Rd	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,484 (-2%)	8mo	$289,500	$195	56
17 Dove	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,594 (+5%)	5mo	$280,900	$176	50
6 Quail Path	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,308 (-14%)	6mo	$290,000	$222	46
131 Sagamore Dr S	0.60mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,712 (+13%)	1mo	$365,000	$213	45
81 Bayberry Cir	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,342 (-12%)	9mo	$255,000	$190	41
4 Nightingale Path	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,700 (+12%)	10mo	$308,000	$181	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-60,201
• Equity at exit: $44,656

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-67,039
• Equity at exit: $25,895

Cash invested: $83,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13090

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,608 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,571
• Tax from tax record: −$551 /mo · $6,609/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $-186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,843

Max offer price $266,723

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,875
• Closing costs: $8,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4071 Sesame Path Liverpool, NY	4.0	2.5	1928	$3,200	$1.66	21d	1	0.93mi
1 Gallowgate Ct Liverpool, NY	3.0	1.5	1585	$1,698	$1.07	13d	1	1.00mi
7648 Autumnal Ln Liverpool, NY	3.0	1.5	1100	$2,500	$2.27	13d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $299,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,609 · $551/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,609 · $551/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,777
• − Property taxes: −$6,609
• − Insurance: −$1,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,504
• − Management: −$2,504
• − Depreciation: −$8,713
• Taxable loss: −$7,304
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,753
• After-tax cash flow: $-474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liverpool Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617520
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $59,134
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3134
• State rank: #381 of 590 in NY

Livability — Liverpool

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #363

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• City population: 29,004
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,004
• Household income: $88,492
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 733.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.53%
• Current HPI: 320.4989
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+130.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $299,500 CNYIS
• 2016-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $131,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-16 Sold (MLS) $131,000 CNYIS
• 2015-12-01 Pending — CNYIS
• 2015-11-23 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2015-11-03 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2015-10-19 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2015-10-06 Listed $129,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,609 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.