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Armstrong Plan 🏗️ New Construction
C Composite 55.18
Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +17.4/30.0
  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Schools +6.0/10.0
  • DSCR +5.4/10.0
  • 1% rule +4.7/10.0
  • Appreciation +4.5/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Rent growth +3.2/5.0
  • Livability +2.5/5.0

$379,999

Armstrong Plan · Ave Maria, FL 34142
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,635 sqft · SingleFamily · 227 Days on market
Good condition Garage

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

This new single-story home is dedicated to modern comfort and ease of living. Two secondary bedrooms share a bathroom in the hall at the front of the home, while down the foyer is the open-concept living area. It showcases an airy dining room, welcoming family room and a modern kitchen with a center island and direct access to the spacious covered patio. In the corner is a tranquil owner's suite with a private bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

  • Walk-in closet
  • Private bathroom
  • Modern kitchen

Tags

OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREAMODERN KITCHENCENTER ISLANDSPACIOUS COVERED PATIOPRIVATE BATHROOMWALK-IN CLOSET

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
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🏗️ New construction. The $379,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $417,338.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $380k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $312 ($4k/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $380k).
  • Recommended offer: $334k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.2% in Ave Maria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
  • Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 545 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • At $4,045/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer $334,399 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.97%
Cap rate
7.19%
Cash-on-cash
3.20%
DSCR
1.14
GRM
8.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$417,338
List price
$379,999
Delta
-8.95%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
4260 Nevada St 0.14mi 3/2.0 1,558 (-5%) 10mo $365,000 $234 78
4671 Espiritu Way 0.00mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,448 (-11%) 2mo $320,000 $221 75
4344 Annapolis Ave 0.45mi 3/2.0 1,662 (+2%) 9mo $393,390 $237 69
4324 Annapolis Ave 0.46mi 3/2.0 1,662 (+2%) 9mo $400,000 $241 69
4969 Renzo Ct 0.49mi 3/2.5 1,726 (+6%) 1mo $395,000 $229 65
4450 Steinbeck Way 0.35mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,760 (+8%) 3mo $459,000 $261 63
4357 Steinbeck Way 0.38mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,760 (+8%) 3mo $430,000 $244 62
4161 Madison St 0.30mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,760 (+8%) 8mo $385,000 $219 61
5072 Arancia Ln 0.62mi 3/3.0 1,705 (+4%) 4mo $315,000 $185 56
5060 Arancia Ln 0.61mi 3/2.0 1,513 (-8%) 4mo $384,500 $254 56
4368 Annapolis Ave 0.46mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,850 (+13%) 7mo $398,000 $215 46
4308 Annapolis Ave 0.46mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,850 (+13%) 9mo $410,000 $222 44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-2.5%
Equity multiple
0.89×
Total profit
$-12,616
Equity at exit
$99,775
10-year hold
IRR
4.3%
Equity multiple
1.40×
Total profit
$47,057
Equity at exit
$103,951

Cash invested: $116,855 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
46 active · 13 under contract
Months of supply
16.2 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$424,000 ($236/sqft)
Median days on market
160 d
This list price
22% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+8.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34142

Home prices YoY
-0.5%
Rents YoY
3.0%
Active inventory
545
Price-to-rent
7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$4,045 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$2,189
Tax est. 1.5%
$522 /mo · $6,260/yr
Insurance
$174
HOA
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$850
Net cashflow
$312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,651
Max offer price $417,338
Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $600 -5% $456 +0% $312 +5% $168 +10% $23
Rent -10% $-8 -5% $152 +0% $312 +5% $472 +10% $631
Rate -1.0pp $522 -0.5pp $418 base $312 +0.5pp $204 +1.0pp $94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$104,335
Closing costs
$12,520
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 40 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
4546 Battlecreek Way Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.5 2104 $3,900 $1.85 72d 1 0.35mi
5032 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.0 1525 $2,595 $1.70 63d 1 0.57mi
4390 Battlecreek Way Ave Maria, FL 4.0 2.5 2060 $3,295 $1.60 72d 1 0.74mi
5068 Annunciation Cir #4201 Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1266 $3,400 $2.69 72d 1 0.75mi
4881 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.5 2037 $2,800 $1.37 59d 1 0.75mi
5076 Annunciation Cir #2206 Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1206 $3,100 $2.57 72d 1 0.80mi
5076 Annunciation Cir #2305 Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1166 $2,800 $2.40 72d 1 0.80mi
5080 Annunciation Cir #1306 Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.0 1700 $4,500 $2.65 72d 1 0.85mi
4925 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1525 $4,000 $2.62 72d 1 0.85mi
4957 Gambero Way Unit 4957 Ave Maria, FL 4.0 3.0 1500 $3,400 $2.27 61d 1 0.93mi
5265 Messina St Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.5 1929 $4,995 $2.59 72d 1 1.01mi
5089 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.5 2028 $2,300 $1.13 63d 1 1.06mi
5187 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.5 1680 $2,700 $1.61 70d 1 1.14mi
5322 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL 3.0 3.0 1918 $2,700 $1.41 63d 1 1.18mi
5376 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.5 1850 $6,850 $3.70 70d 1 1.22mi
5374 Ferris Ave Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.5 1933 $2,350 $1.22 72d 1 1.26mi
5522 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.5 1850 $3,995 $2.16 72d 1 1.26mi
5538 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL 3.0 3.0 2247 $6,295 $2.80 70d 1 1.30mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL 4.0 3.0 2247 $8,500 $3.78 72d 1 1.30mi
5412 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL 4.0 3.0 2247 $8,000 $3.56 70d 1 1.31mi
5538 Useppa Dr Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.5 1850 $10,995 $5.94 72d 1 1.35mi
5661 Melbourne Ct Unit 8012 Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.0 1741 $2,500 $1.44 41d 1 1.36mi
5661 Melbourne Ct #8011 Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.0 1741 $7,295 $4.19 61d 1 1.36mi
5428 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL 3.0 3.0 2247 $7,895 $3.51 70d 1 1.36mi
5435 Pikewood Ct Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.5 1850 $3,695 $2.00 70d 1 1.38mi
5667 Melbourne Ct #7812 Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.0 1741 $6,250 $3.59 61d 1 1.38mi
5360 Brin Way Ave Maria, FL 4.0 2.5 1088 $2,495 $2.29 72d 1 1.39mi
5444 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL 3.0 3.0 2247 $3,995 $1.78 70d 1 1.40mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1239 $2,495 $2.01 72d 1 1.40mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir #4137 Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1154 $5,795 $5.02 70d 1 1.41mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4118 Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.0 1301 $4,700 $3.61 72d 1 1.41mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir #4135 Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1120 $2,195 $1.96 72d 1 1.41mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4143 Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1120 $5,795 $5.17 72d 1 1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2825 Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1355 $6,295 $4.65 72d 1 1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2815 Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1400 $2,700 $1.93 72d 1 1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2826 Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1569 $6,495 $4.14 72d 1 1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2822 Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1355 $5,795 $4.28 72d 1 1.41mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1355 $2,995 $2.21 72d 1 1.41mi
5674 Melbourne Ct Unit 7721 Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.0 2110 $7,295 $3.46 61d 1 1.41mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3013 Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1366 $2,595 $1.90 70d 1 1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Address: Ave Maria, FL 34142
Financial info
List price available (details not shown here)

Exterior

Parking
2 garage spaces2 total parking spaces
Home design
New construction plan named ArmstrongSingle-family home (plan inventory)
Construction
Built as part of a 2025/2026 listing (new construction plan)
Exterior features
Living area of 1,635 (listed)

Interior

Kitchen
Standard kitchen included (details not provided)
Bedrooms
3 bedrooms
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Interior features
Open living area
Laundry & utility
Laundry/utility area (details not provided)

Listing history 49 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $379,999 Active 227 DOM
  2. 2026-08-07
    days on market $379,999 Active 226 DOM
  3. 2026-08-06
    days on market $379,999 Active 225 DOM
  4. 2026-08-05
    days on market $379,999 Active 224 DOM
  5. 2026-08-04
    days on market $379,999 Active 223 DOM
  6. 2026-08-03
    days on market $379,999 Active 222 DOM
  7. 2026-07-31
    days on market $379,999 Active 219 DOM
  8. 2026-07-30
    days on market $379,999 Active 218 DOM
  9. 2026-07-29
    days on market $379,999 Active 217 DOM
  10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $379,999 Active 215 DOM
  11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $379,999 Active 213 DOM
  12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $379,999 Active 212 DOM
  13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $379,999 Active 211 DOM
  14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $379,999 Active 210 DOM
  15. 2026-07-22
    days on market $379,999 Active 209 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $379,999 Active 206 DOM
  17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $379,999 Active 204 DOM
  18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $379,999 Active 203 DOM
  19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $379,999 Active 202 DOM
  20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $379,999 Active 201 DOM
  21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $379,999 Active 200 DOM
  22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $379,999 Active 199 DOM
  23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $379,999 Active 197 DOM
  24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $379,999 Active 196 DOM
  25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $379,999 Active 195 DOM
  26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $379,999 Active 194 DOM
  27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $379,999 Active 193 DOM
  28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $379,999 Active 192 DOM
  29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $379,999 Active 190 DOM
  30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $379,999 Active 189 DOM
  31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $379,999 Active 188 DOM
  32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $379,999 Active 187 DOM
  33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $379,999 Active 186 DOM
  34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $379,999 Active 184 DOM
  35. 2026-06-25
    days on market $379,999 Active 182 DOM
  36. 2026-06-23
    days on market $379,999 Active 180 DOM
  37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $379,999 Active 179 DOM
  38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $379,999 Active 176 DOM
  39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $379,999 Active 175 DOM
  40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $379,999 Active 174 DOM
  41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $379,999 Active 173 DOM
  42. 2026-06-10
    days on market $379,999 Active 168 DOM
  43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $379,999 Active 167 DOM
  44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $379,999 Active 166 DOM
  45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $379,999 Active 165 DOM
  46. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,999 Active 160 DOM
  47. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,999 Active 159 DOM
  48. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,999 Active 158 DOM
  49. 2026-05-30
    days on market $379,999 Active 157 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$48,545
− Mortgage interest
−$23,377
− Property taxes
−$6,260
− Insurance
−$2,087
− Repairs & maintenance
−$3,884
− Management
−$3,884
− Depreciation
−$12,141
Taxable loss
−$3,087
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$741
After-tax cash flow
$4,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,175–$24,525 screening

This modern single-story home in Ave Maria, FL, is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for modest cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve both resale and rental value.
  • Resale Update kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers.
  • Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental appeal.

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Estates Elementary School B+ FL #409/2,144 Nat'l #4,125/41,679 Middle Corkscrew Middle School B+ FL #109/571 Nat'l #1,406/14,009 High Palmetto Ridge High School D- FL #207/667 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Collier
NCES district ID
1200330
Math proficiency
60% ▼ -4.00%
Reading proficiency
56% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income
$58,275
Composite
50.23/100
National rank
#1892
State rank
#16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

Census place
Ave Maria, FL
County
Collier County · 420,858 people
Metro
Naples-Marco Island, FL
Population (ZIP)
35,149
Household income
$62,333
Rent vs Own
48.7% rent · 51.3% own
Severe rent burden
12% of renters

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
420,858 people
By 2030
450,054 · +6.9%
By 2040
502,232 · +19.3%
By 2050
544,932 · +29.5%
By 2075
627,203 · +49.0%
By 2100
659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Majority Hispanic (63%)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
Common ancestry
Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
Foreign-born
32% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home
34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

2024 margin
Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
2008→2024 swing
-10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
All cycles
2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

Civics

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…