20 Roberts Rd · Monticello, KY 42633

$119,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 2007 9,147 sqft lot $99/sqft · 43% below area Est $208k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1200 sq ft home offering 1 bedroom, 1 full bath, and a spacious two-car garage, situated on a .21-acre lot. this property provides a functional layout with comfortable living space and room to relax both indoors and out. Located less than 15 minutes from Conley Bottoms Marina, this home is ideal for those who enjoy lake life, boating, fishing, or weekend getaways while still appreciating a quiet, manageable setting. The lot offers ample space for outdoor enjoyment with low maintenance. Perfect as a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this property combines convenience, location, and practicality near Lake Cumberland.

Key facts

• Near lake cumberland
• Outdoor enjoyment
• Functional layout

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR ENJOYMENT
• QUIET MANAGEABLE SETTING
• NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.6% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#265 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wayne County (town): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #142 of 165 in KY (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.36%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,560
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -42.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-9,823
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $3,554
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42633

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,139 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $923/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $950

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,000 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $119,000 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Contingent 131 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Contingent 130 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Contingent 129 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    historical Contingent 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    1200 sq ft home offering 1 bedroom, 1 full bath, and a spacious two-car garage, situated on a .21-acre lot. this property provides a functional layout with comfortable living space and room to relax both indoors and out. Located less than 15 minutes from Conley Bottoms Marina, this home is ideal for those who enjoy lake life, boating, fishing, or weekend getaways while still appreciating a quiet, manageable setting. The lot offers ample space for outdoor enjoyment with low maintenance. Perfect as a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this property combines convenience, location, and practicality near Lake Cumberland.

17. 2026-01-21
    listed $119,000 Active 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    1200 sq ft home offering 1 bedroom, 1 full bath, and a spacious two-car garage, situated on a .21-acre lot. this property provides a functional layout with comfortable living space and room to relax both indoors and out. Located less than 15 minutes from Conley Bottoms Marina, this home is ideal for those who enjoy lake life, boating, fishing, or weekend getaways while still appreciating a quiet, manageable setting. The lot offers ample space for outdoor enjoyment with low maintenance. Perfect as a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this property combines convenience, location, and practicality near Lake Cumberland.

18. 2024-01-22
    soldstatus $105,000
19. 2013-03-13
    historical
20. 2012-09-10
    listed $229,900
21. 2011-02-28
    soldstatus $60,000
22. 2000-04-01
    soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $923 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$100/yr (+$8/mo · 10.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,664
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$923
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,093
• − Management: −$1,093
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$168
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$40
• After-tax cash flow: $1,828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne County
• NCES district ID: 2105790
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -21.00%
• Median HH income: $30,391
• Composite: 21.38/100
• National rank: #8358
• State rank: #142 of 165 in KY

Livability — Monticello

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #12963

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,609

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,477 people
• By 2030: 18,776 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 17,199 · -11.7%
• By 2050: 15,602 · -19.9%
• By 2075: 11,883 · -39.0%
• By 2100: 8,300 · -57.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Iranian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.5% · R 82.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.9pp toward R · 2008: -37.1pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+62.0 2016: R+61.8 2012: R+47.6 2008: R+37.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.14%
• Current HPI: 227.5936
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+526.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $119,000 ImagineMLS
• 2024-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2013-03-13 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2012-09-10 Listed $229,900 ImagineMLS
• 2011-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2000-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $923 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.