112 Sebastian Ln · Josephine, TX 75173

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 2001 7,362 sqft lot $155/sqft · 14% below area Est $232k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to Cottonbelt Estates — one of the area's most established and beloved communities, zoned to Community ISD. This solid 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-story home has great bones and a layout that just makes sense, offering the kind of comfortable, easy living that never goes out of style. Rich hardwood floors flow throughout the home, giving every room a warm and classic feel. The kitchen offers plenty of counter space and cabinetry, opening naturally into the dining and living areas — a setup that works whether you're hosting friends or keeping an eye on the kids. The primary bedroom is tucked away from the secondary bedrooms for added privacy, and the ensuite features a spacious accessibility shower that is both a practical and valuable upgrade. The additional bedrooms adapt easily to whatever life calls for — guest room, home office, playroom, or all three over time. Step outside and you'll find a backyard with real potential — plenty of room to garden, entertain, let the pets roam, or just enjoy a quiet Texas evening. Close to schools, shopping, and dining, with easy access to everything the area has to offer. If you've been looking for a well-located, move-in ready home with character and thoughtful features, this one deserves a look.

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Easy access
• Backyard potential

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• KITCHEN COUNTER SPACE
• BACKYARD POTENTIAL
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• EASY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($932/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.4% in Josephine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.66%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,146
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -13.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
114 Sebastian Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-2%)	2mo	$225,000	$177	95
114 Cotton Cir	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,288 (0%)	9mo	$233,000	$181	90
704 Savanna Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,310 (+2%)	13mo	$239,900	$183	75
496 Milton St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,142 (-11%)	4mo	$196,000	$172	68
108 Milton St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,238 (-4%)	5mo	$229,900	$186	67
1204 Sugar Pine Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,253 (-3%)	13mo	$233,990	$187	60
311 Honey Locust Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,253 (-3%)	13mo	$238,990	$191	59
806 Independence	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+10%)	9mo	$245,000	$173	57
492 Milton St	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,454 (+13%)	14mo	$275,000	$189	55
210 E Cook St	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (-4%)	1mo	$214,897	$174	52
1202 Sugar Pine Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+9%)	12mo	$266,990	$190	49
1214 Sugar Pine Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+9%)	13mo	$280,990	$200	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $113,961
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.93×
• Total profit: $331,886
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,972 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$348 /mo · $4,175/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,874

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	10d	1	0.47mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	1d	1	0.82mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	15d	1	0.83mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	6d	1	0.83mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	43d	1	0.93mi
408 N Greenville St Josephine, TX	3.0	1.0	936	$1,400	$1.50	1d	1	0.93mi
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	24d	1	0.94mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	2d	1	1.03mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	5d	1	1.04mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	7d	1	1.05mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	12d	1	1.21mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	43d	1	1.24mi
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	24d	1	1.25mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,875	$1.22	24d	1	1.50mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,900	$1.24	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $200,000 Pending 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active Option Contract 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active Option Contract 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active Option Contract 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active Option Contract 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   status $200,000 Active Option Contract 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $200,000 1290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1290 chars)

    Welcome home to Cottonbelt Estates — one of the area's most established and beloved communities, zoned to Community ISD. This solid 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-story home has great bones and a layout that just makes sense, offering the kind of comfortable, easy living that never goes out of style. Rich hardwood floors flow throughout the home, giving every room a warm and classic feel. The kitchen offers plenty of counter space and cabinetry, opening naturally into the dining and living areas — a setup that works whether you're hosting friends or keeping an eye on the kids. The primary bedroom is tucked away from the secondary bedrooms for added privacy, and the ensuite features a spacious accessibility shower that is both a practical and valuable upgrade. The additional bedrooms adapt easily to whatever life calls for — guest room, home office, playroom, or all three over time. Step outside and you'll find a backyard with real potential — plenty of room to garden, entertain, let the pets roam, or just enjoy a quiet Texas evening. Close to schools, shopping, and dining, with easy access to everything the area has to offer. If you've been looking for a well-located, move-in ready home with character and thoughtful features, this one deserves a look.

16. 2026-02-27
    listed $230,000 Active 1290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1290 chars)

    Welcome home to Cottonbelt Estates — one of the area's most established and beloved communities, zoned to Community ISD. This solid 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-story home has great bones and a layout that just makes sense, offering the kind of comfortable, easy living that never goes out of style. Rich hardwood floors flow throughout the home, giving every room a warm and classic feel. The kitchen offers plenty of counter space and cabinetry, opening naturally into the dining and living areas — a setup that works whether you're hosting friends or keeping an eye on the kids. The primary bedroom is tucked away from the secondary bedrooms for added privacy, and the ensuite features a spacious accessibility shower that is both a practical and valuable upgrade. The additional bedrooms adapt easily to whatever life calls for — guest room, home office, playroom, or all three over time. Step outside and you'll find a backyard with real potential — plenty of room to garden, entertain, let the pets roam, or just enjoy a quiet Texas evening. Close to schools, shopping, and dining, with easy access to everything the area has to offer. If you've been looking for a well-located, move-in ready home with character and thoughtful features, this one deserves a look.

17. 2023-05-17
    soldstatus
18. 2019-10-28
    soldstatus Sold 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Super cute house in Josephine. Do not miss this opportunity. Built-in 2001 with three bedrooms, two baths, and a one-car garage. This Home Features an Open floor plan with spacious family room and breakfast nook. Kitchen has nice wood cabinets and plenty of counter space. Located just off FM 6 with easy access to Hwy 78, Hwy 380 and I-30. Josephine is a USDA approved city!

19. 2019-10-08
    historical Active Option Contract 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Super cute house in Josephine. Do not miss this opportunity. Built-in 2001 with three bedrooms, two baths, and a one-car garage. This Home Features an Open floor plan with spacious family room and breakfast nook. Kitchen has nice wood cabinets and plenty of counter space. Located just off FM 6 with easy access to Hwy 78, Hwy 380 and I-30. Josephine is a USDA approved city!

20. 2019-09-24
    status Active 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Super cute house in Josephine. Do not miss this opportunity. Built-in 2001 with three bedrooms, two baths, and a one-car garage. This Home Features an Open floor plan with spacious family room and breakfast nook. Kitchen has nice wood cabinets and plenty of counter space. Located just off FM 6 with easy access to Hwy 78, Hwy 380 and I-30. Josephine is a USDA approved city!

21. 2019-09-07
    historical Active Option Contract 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Super cute house in Josephine. Do not miss this opportunity. Built-in 2001 with three bedrooms, two baths, and a one-car garage. This Home Features an Open floor plan with spacious family room and breakfast nook. Kitchen has nice wood cabinets and plenty of counter space. Located just off FM 6 with easy access to Hwy 78, Hwy 380 and I-30. Josephine is a USDA approved city!

22. 2019-08-23
    listed $162,500 Active 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Super cute house in Josephine. Do not miss this opportunity. Built-in 2001 with three bedrooms, two baths, and a one-car garage. This Home Features an Open floor plan with spacious family room and breakfast nook. Kitchen has nice wood cabinets and plenty of counter space. Located just off FM 6 with easy access to Hwy 78, Hwy 380 and I-30. Josephine is a USDA approved city!

23. 2003-01-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,175 · $348/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,175 · $348/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,175
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,893
• − Management: −$1,893
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,320
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$557
• After-tax cash flow: $1,489/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Josephine, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+23.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2023-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-10-28 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-10-08 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2019-09-24 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2019-09-07 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2019-08-23 Listed $162,500 NTREIS
• 2003-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,175 · -8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.