Dowing Plan · Katy, TX 77493

$281,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,924 sqft · SingleFamily · 212 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Great location
• Community lagoon
• Future school sites

Tags

• COMMUNITY LAGOON
• NEIGHBORHOOD PARKS
• FUTURE SCHOOL SITES
• GREAT LOCATION

🏗️ New construction. The $281,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $338,540.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $282k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $282k).
• Recommended offer: $248k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 4013 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,151 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.25%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,540
• List price: $281,990
• Delta: -16.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4959 Shimmer Side Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,948 (+1%)	2mo	$305,000	$157	88
5118 Sunvalley Bend Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,736 (-10%)	1mo	$256,000	$147	78
5010 Blessing Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,776 (-8%)	0mo	$307,990	$173	77
4953 Blue Beetle Ridge Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,831 (-5%)	2mo	$265,000	$145	71
2221 Sonder Shore Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,803 (-6%)	2mo	$327,990	$182	60
4709 Bakers Landing Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,865 (-3%)	2mo	$349,407	$187	56
1464 Sundown Glen Ln	0.57mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,765 (-8%)	2mo	$299,990	$170	49
5607 Teal Marlene Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (-11%)	2mo	$363,815	$212	49
5619 Teal Marlene Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,140 (+11%)	2mo	$410,525	$192	48
27103 Blue Pool Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,134 (+11%)	2mo	$299,888	$141	46
4637 Peony Green Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,689 (-12%)	2mo	$299,990	$178	43
5053 Marcasca Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,164 (+12%)	1mo	$367,900	$170	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-69,397
• Equity at exit: $50,477

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-100,457
• Equity at exit: $29,271

Cash invested: $94,791 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 239 active · 76 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.7 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $329,990 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 94 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 4013
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,837 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,775
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$423 /mo · $5,078/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,961

Max offer price $324,299

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $19	+0% $-98	+5% $-215	+10% $-332
Rent	-10% $-323	-5% $-210	+0% $-98	+5% $14	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $72	-0.5pp $-12	base $-98	+0.5pp $-186	+1.0pp $-275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,635
• Closing costs: $10,156
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4946 Skybluff Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2410	$2,650	$1.10	74d	1	0.19mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1709	$2,927	$1.71	0d	23	0.31mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	139d	1	0.49mi
1496 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2135	$2,500	$1.17	74d	1	0.50mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	59d	24	0.51mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	1890	$2,800	$1.48	0d	29	0.51mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,500	$1.37	48d	1	0.51mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Unit 315 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,418	$1.62	47d	1	0.51mi
4607 Dana Cove Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2152	$2,500	$1.16	6d	1	0.56mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	116d	1	0.61mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	69d	1	0.61mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	38d	1	0.61mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2116	$3,050	$1.44	39d	1	0.61mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	85d	1	0.61mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2116	$3,050	$1.44	51d	1	0.61mi
4696 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2156	$2,395	$1.11	20d	1	0.62mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Unit 27327 Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	47d	1	0.73mi
5822 Majestic Sky Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,249	$1.38	20d	1	0.77mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	139d	1	0.79mi
1024 Greenshank Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2390	$2,900	$1.21	7d	1	0.90mi
1008 Caramel Shores Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2492	$3,100	$1.24	39d	1	0.92mi
26123 Venus Trap Trl Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1785	$2,200	$1.23	55d	1	1.00mi
409 Aurora Creek Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1964	$2,100	$1.07	68d	1	1.03mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	0d	1	1.03mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	41d	1	1.04mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	112d	1	1.04mi
808 Marisol Bay Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2423	$2,695	$1.11	36d	1	1.09mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	4d	1	1.12mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$1,845	$1.20	19d	1	1.17mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	139d	1	1.18mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,499	$1.16	87d	1	1.18mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	108d	1	1.19mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	108d	1	1.19mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,020	$1.31	68d	1	1.19mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,005	$1.13	19d	1	1.20mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	93d	1	1.21mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	120d	1	1.21mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,005	$1.13	19d	1	1.22mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,005	$1.13	19d	1	1.26mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	139d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $281,990 Active 212 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $281,990 Active 211 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $281,990 Active 210 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $281,990 Active 209 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $281,990 Active 208 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $281,990 Active 207 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   pricedays on market $281,990 Active 206 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $283,990 Active 205 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $283,990 Active 204 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $283,990 Active 203 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $283,990 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $283,990 Active 201 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $283,990 Active 200 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $283,990 Active 199 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $285,990 Active 193 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $285,990 Active 192 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $285,990 Active 190 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $285,990 Active 188 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $285,990 Active 186 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $285,990 Active 185 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $285,990 Active 184 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $285,990 Active 182 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $285,990 Active 181 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $285,990 Active 180 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $285,990 Active 179 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $285,990 Active 178 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    price $285,990 Active 177 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $290,990 Active 177 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $290,990 Active 176 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $290,990 Active 175 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $290,990 Active 174 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $290,990 Active 173 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $290,990 Active 172 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $290,990 Active 171 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $290,990 Active 170 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $290,990 Active 169 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $290,990 Active 168 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $290,990 Active 167 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $290,990 Active 166 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $290,990 Active 165 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $290,990 Active 163 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $290,990 Active 162 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $290,990 Active 161 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $290,990 Active 160 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $290,990 Active 157 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $290,990 Active 156 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $290,990 Active 155 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    pricedays on market $290,990 Active 154 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $288,990 Active 152 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $288,990 Active 150 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,963
• − Property taxes: −$5,078
• − Insurance: −$1,693
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,723
• − Management: −$2,723
• − Depreciation: −$9,848
• Taxable loss: −$6,987
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,677
• After-tax cash flow: $496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Katy, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New windows and doors — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Robert King El F TX #1,313/4,322 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Katy J H C TX #318/1,662 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Katy H S B TX #150/1,632 Nat'l #2,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-01-29 Listed $336,990 Zillow