Dowing Plan · Katy, TX 77493

$336,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,924 sqft · SingleFamily · 114 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Great location
• Community lagoon
• Future school sites

Tags

• COMMUNITY LAGOON
• NEIGHBORHOOD PARKS
• FUTURE SCHOOL SITES
• GREAT LOCATION

🏗️ New construction. The $336,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $338,750.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $337k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-893/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,916 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.94%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,750
• List price: $336,990
• Delta: -0.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27126 Peaceful Cove Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,866 (-3%)	2mo	$299,000	$160	83
4680 Peony Green Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,056 (+7%)	0mo	$343,990	$167	59
4632 Cleo Day Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,859 (-3%)	0mo	$299,990	$161	57
4736 Peony Green Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,858 (-3%)	2mo	$299,990	$161	54
5028 Marcasca Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (-5%)	1mo	$301,990	$165	52
5065 Marcasca Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,102 (+9%)	0mo	$331,990	$158	47
5806 Havana Mist Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,134 (+11%)	0mo	$305,000	$143	46
2208 Inglenook Grove Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,196 (+14%)	3mo	$359,990	$164	44
27411 Cinnamon Shores Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,206 (+15%)	1mo	$349,990	$159	42
4684 Peony Green Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,190 (+14%)	2mo	$359,990	$164	42
5017 Marcasca Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,689 (-12%)	2mo	$269,990	$160	40
4784 Luna Landing Dr	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,168 (+13%)	0mo	$335,990	$155	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-67,995
• Equity at exit: $50,509

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-97,629
• Equity at exit: $29,289

Cash invested: $94,850 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,869 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,776
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$423 /mo · $5,081/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,963

Max offer price $327,986

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,688
• Closing costs: $10,163
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	1d	25	0.31mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	43d	1	0.49mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	1d	16	0.51mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	20d	1	0.61mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	43d	1	0.73mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	43d	1	0.79mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	17d	1	1.04mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	43d	1	1.13mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,185	$1.42	12d	1	1.17mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	43d	1	1.18mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,762	$1.28	10d	1	1.18mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	12d	1	1.19mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	12d	1	1.19mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	24d	1	1.19mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	24d	1	1.20mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	24d	1	1.21mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	24d	1	1.21mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	24d	1	1.21mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	12d	1	1.26mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	43d	1	1.27mi
3037 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	24d	1	1.27mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	24d	1	1.30mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	24d	1	1.31mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	12d	1	1.33mi
3004 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,942	$1.32	43d	1	1.38mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	4d	1	1.39mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	1d	1	1.40mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	12d	1	1.47mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	22d	1	1.48mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $336,990 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $336,990 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $336,990 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $336,990 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $336,990 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $336,990 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $336,990 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $336,990 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $336,990 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $336,990 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $336,990 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $336,990 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-03-05
    status Active 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

14. 2025-02-08
    historical 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

15. 2025-01-29
    listed $336,990 Active 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,975
• − Property taxes: −$5,081
• − Insurance: −$1,694
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,754
• − Management: −$2,754
• − Depreciation: −$9,855
• Taxable loss: −$6,684
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,604
• After-tax cash flow: $711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Katy, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New windows and doors — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New windows and doors — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-01-29 Listed $336,990 Zillow