22751 American Kestrel Ct · Splendora, TX 77372

$189,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,360 sqft · Land · 94 Days on market

Built 2025 4,800 sqft lot $140/sqft · at area comps Est $186k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Nantucket is a 2-story home from the Cottage Series Line. It offers 3 bedrooms - all upstairs - with sizeable walk-in closets in the primary suite and one of the spare bedrooms as well as 2.5 bathrooms. Downstairs, homebuyers love the open-concept family room, kitchen, and dining room combination ideal for welcoming guests and relaxing at home.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Private retreat
• Patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FIRST FLOOR
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 542 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $172,890 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.45%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,643
• List price: $189,990
• Delta: 2.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-15,442
• Equity at exit: $28,328

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $6,212
• Equity at exit: $16,427

Cash invested: $53,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 542
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,837 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,007/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $189,990

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,498
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $189,990 Pending 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,990 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,990 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $189,990 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $189,990 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,990 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-05-13
   price $189,990 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   The Nantucket is a 2-story home from the Cottage Series Line. It offers 3 bedrooms - all upstairs - with sizeable walk-in closets in the primary suite and one of the spare bedrooms as well as 2.5 bathrooms. Downstairs, homebuyers love the open-concept family room, kitchen, and dining room combination ideal for welcoming guests and relaxing at home.

8. 2026-05-12
   price $189,990 991-char remark

   Show marketing remark (991 chars)

   Love where you live in Townsend Reserve in Splendora! Ideally located for peaceful living with everyday convenience, this community offers the perfect balance of comfort and value. The Nantucket floor plan is a charming two-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, thoughtfully designed for both functionality and style. The open-concept first floor creates a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for entertaining and daily living. Vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the common areas, adding both beauty and easy maintenance. The gourmet kitchen is sure to impress with white cabinetry, laminate countertops, and ample space for cooking and gathering. Upstairs offers a private retreat for all bedrooms. Step outside to enjoy the patio. Blending modern finishes with practical design, this inviting home has everything you need. Don’t miss your opportunity to call Townsend Reserve home—schedule your visit today!

9. 2026-03-22
   price $190,990 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   The Nantucket is a 2-story home from the Cottage Series Line. It offers 3 bedrooms - all upstairs - with sizeable walk-in closets in the primary suite and one of the spare bedrooms as well as 2.5 bathrooms. Downstairs, homebuyers love the open-concept family room, kitchen, and dining room combination ideal for welcoming guests and relaxing at home.

10. 2026-03-18
    price $190,990 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    Love where you live in Townsend Reserve in Splendora! Ideally located for peaceful living with everyday convenience, this community offers the perfect balance of comfort and value. The Nantucket floor plan is a charming two-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, thoughtfully designed for both functionality and style. The open-concept first floor creates a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for entertaining and daily living. Vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the common areas, adding both beauty and easy maintenance. The gourmet kitchen is sure to impress with white cabinetry, laminate countertops, and ample space for cooking and gathering. Upstairs offers a private retreat for all bedrooms. Step outside to enjoy the patio. Blending modern finishes with practical design, this inviting home has everything you need. Don’t miss your opportunity to call Townsend Reserve home—schedule your visit today!

11. 2026-03-03
    price $194,990 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    Love where you live in Townsend Reserve in Splendora! Ideally located for peaceful living with everyday convenience, this community offers the perfect balance of comfort and value. The Nantucket floor plan is a charming two-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, thoughtfully designed for both functionality and style. The open-concept first floor creates a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for entertaining and daily living. Vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the common areas, adding both beauty and easy maintenance. The gourmet kitchen is sure to impress with white cabinetry, laminate countertops, and ample space for cooking and gathering. Upstairs offers a private retreat for all bedrooms. Step outside to enjoy the patio. Blending modern finishes with practical design, this inviting home has everything you need. Don’t miss your opportunity to call Townsend Reserve home—schedule your visit today!

12. 2026-03-03
    listed $195,242 Active 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    Love where you live in Townsend Reserve in Splendora! Ideally located for peaceful living with everyday convenience, this community offers the perfect balance of comfort and value. The Nantucket floor plan is a charming two-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, thoughtfully designed for both functionality and style. The open-concept first floor creates a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for entertaining and daily living. Vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the common areas, adding both beauty and easy maintenance. The gourmet kitchen is sure to impress with white cabinetry, laminate countertops, and ample space for cooking and gathering. Upstairs offers a private retreat for all bedrooms. Step outside to enjoy the patio. Blending modern finishes with practical design, this inviting home has everything you need. Don’t miss your opportunity to call Townsend Reserve home—schedule your visit today!

13. 2026-02-23
    historical
14. 2025-12-17
    listed $194,990 Active 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    The Nantucket is a 2-story home from the Cottage Series Line. It offers 3 bedrooms - all upstairs - with sizeable walk-in closets in the primary suite and one of the spare bedrooms as well as 2.5 bathrooms. Downstairs, homebuyers love the open-concept family room, kitchen, and dining room combination ideal for welcoming guests and relaxing at home.

15. 2025-10-07
    price $194,990
16. 2025-09-16
    listed $195,242 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,007 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,470/yr (+$206/mo · 245.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,039
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,642
• − Property taxes: −$1,007
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,763
• − Management: −$1,763
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$214
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$51
• After-tax cash flow: $2,949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $189,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $189,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $190,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $190,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $194,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $195,242 HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $194,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $194,990 HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $195,242 HARMLS

Property tax history

+39.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,007 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.