1628 E Villa Rita Dr · Phoenix, AZ 85022

$49,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 272 Days on market

Built 1979 Good condition $51/sqft · 49% below area Est $98k · 49% under ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming, updated, and ready for easy living in a prime 55+ community! This beautifully remodeled 2-bed, 2-bath home was refreshed in 2023 and features a brand-new stackable washer/dryer added in 2025. Enjoy the warmth of laminate flooring throughout, a cozy fireplace for cool evenings, and a spacious Arizona room perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With parking on both sides, an attached storage shed, and included appliances (refrigerator, washer, and dryer), this home offers convenience and comfort at every turn. Nestled on a lot lease in a cute community just minutes from the 101 freeway and surrounded by great shopping and dining, this is your opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in a great location!

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Arizona room
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• STACKABLE WASHER DRYER
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• COZY FIREPLACE
• ARIZONA ROOM
• ATTACHED STORAGE SHED
• INCLUDED APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $844 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.6% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 282 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 272 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $480k (91%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 272 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.51%
• DSCR: 4.23
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $98,000
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -49.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1633 E Villa Rita Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,026 (+5%)	18mo	$145,000	$141	75
1701 E Villa Rita Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+8%)	15mo	$132,000	$125	73
1939 E Libby St	0.40mi	2/2.0	980 (0%)	13mo	$175,000	$179	71
1606 E Michelle Dr #138	0.06mi	2/2.0	896 (-9%)	20mo	$52,000	$58	66
1926 E Grovers Ave	0.39mi	2/2.0	924 (-6%)	11mo	$260,000	$281	64
2140 E Michigan Ave #35	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	990 (+1%)	1mo	$98,000	$99	63
17607 N 15th Pl	0.36mi	2/2.0	960 (-2%)	22mo	$200,000	$208	61
18240 N 21st Dr #86	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,024 (+4%)	14mo	$75,000	$73	57
1304 E Bell Rd #79	0.64mi	2/2.0	960 (-2%)	17mo	$50,000	$52	52
17827 N 19th St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,096 (+12%)	12mo	$130,000	$119	49
1304 E Bell Rd #76	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (-2%)	17mo	$99,000	$103	48
1304 E Bell Rd #55	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+14%)	15mo	$90,000	$80	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.96×
• Total profit: $41,299
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.32×
• Total profit: $88,250
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85022

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 282
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,505 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $844

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1814 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,637	$1.63	1d	12	0.53mi
1450 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$1,555	$1.62	2d	93	0.60mi
2067 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	24d	1	0.61mi
2077 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	24d	1	0.64mi
1130 E Grovers Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	934	$1,336	$1.43	2d	12	0.64mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	20d	1	0.68mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	7d	1	0.68mi
1750 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,349	$1.93	24d	1	0.68mi
17617 N 9th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,513	$1.58	2d	35	0.76mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Unit 6 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	748	$1,250	$1.67	7d	1	0.87mi
1100 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,822	$1.85	1d	26	0.87mi
18202 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	722	$1,148	$1.59	4d	7	0.89mi
17602 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	650	$1,625	$2.50	2d	13	0.90mi
17017 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	910	$2,500	$2.75	24d	2	0.90mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	4d	9	0.91mi
18660 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,622	$1.69	2d	11	0.95mi
726 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,000	$1.84	18d	1	1.01mi
726 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,000	$1.84	11d	1	1.01mi
16601 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1242	$1,697	$1.37	2d	21	1.01mi
17625 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,369	$1.48	3d	7	1.02mi
719 E Lola Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	688	$2,900	$4.22	7d	1	1.04mi
17249 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,518	$1.59	2d	37	1.09mi
2554 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1118	$2,750	$2.46	24d	1	1.19mi
18217 N 2nd Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	833	$1,300	$1.56	16d	1	1.37mi
19601 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1000	$1,295	$1.29	5d	3	1.40mi
16621 N 25th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	570	$899	$1.58	7d	1	1.43mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$829	$1.18	24d	1	1.45mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 312 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$856	$1.56	22d	1	1.45mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Apt 310 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	24d	1	1.45mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 112 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$856	$1.56	24d	1	1.45mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	22d	1	1.45mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,159	$1.66	24d	1	1.45mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	575	$942	$1.64	4d	6	1.45mi
16627 N 25th St Unit 23 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	765	$1,145	$1.50	24d	1	1.45mi
19635 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$1,643	$1.64	2d	22	1.46mi
20050 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,770	$1.95	1d	10	1.46mi
16801 N 26th St Apt 17 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	24d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $49,900 Pending 272 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 269 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 268 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 267 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $49,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 264 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $49,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 263 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $49,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 262 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $49,900 Active 261 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,900 Active 260 DOM
10. 2026-05-05
    price $49,900 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    Charming, updated, and ready for easy living in a prime 55+ community! This beautifully remodeled 2-bed, 2-bath home was refreshed in 2023 and features a brand-new stackable washer/dryer added in 2025. Enjoy the warmth of laminate flooring throughout, a cozy fireplace for cool evenings, and a spacious Arizona room perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With parking on both sides, an attached storage shed, and included appliances (refrigerator, washer, and dryer), this home offers convenience and comfort at every turn. Nestled on a lot lease in a cute community just minutes from the 101 freeway and surrounded by great shopping and dining, this is your opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in a great location!

11. 2026-02-11
    price $59,900 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    Charming, updated, and ready for easy living in a prime 55+ community! This beautifully remodeled 2-bed, 2-bath home was refreshed in 2023 and features a brand-new stackable washer/dryer added in 2025. Enjoy the warmth of laminate flooring throughout, a cozy fireplace for cool evenings, and a spacious Arizona room perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With parking on both sides, an attached storage shed, and included appliances (refrigerator, washer, and dryer), this home offers convenience and comfort at every turn. Nestled on a lot lease in a cute community just minutes from the 101 freeway and surrounded by great shopping and dining, this is your opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in a great location!

12. 2025-12-05
    price $64,900 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    Charming, updated, and ready for easy living in a prime 55+ community! This beautifully remodeled 2-bed, 2-bath home was refreshed in 2023 and features a brand-new stackable washer/dryer added in 2025. Enjoy the warmth of laminate flooring throughout, a cozy fireplace for cool evenings, and a spacious Arizona room perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With parking on both sides, an attached storage shed, and included appliances (refrigerator, washer, and dryer), this home offers convenience and comfort at every turn. Nestled on a lot lease in a cute community just minutes from the 101 freeway and surrounded by great shopping and dining, this is your opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in a great location!

13. 2025-10-01
    price $71,900 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    Charming, updated, and ready for easy living in a prime 55+ community! This beautifully remodeled 2-bed, 2-bath home was refreshed in 2023 and features a brand-new stackable washer/dryer added in 2025. Enjoy the warmth of laminate flooring throughout, a cozy fireplace for cool evenings, and a spacious Arizona room perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With parking on both sides, an attached storage shed, and included appliances (refrigerator, washer, and dryer), this home offers convenience and comfort at every turn. Nestled on a lot lease in a cute community just minutes from the 101 freeway and surrounded by great shopping and dining, this is your opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in a great location!

14. 2025-09-16
    historical
15. 2025-09-15
    listed $530,000
16. 2025-09-13
    listed $74,900 Active 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    Charming, updated, and ready for easy living in a prime 55+ community! This beautifully remodeled 2-bed, 2-bath home was refreshed in 2023 and features a brand-new stackable washer/dryer added in 2025. Enjoy the warmth of laminate flooring throughout, a cozy fireplace for cool evenings, and a spacious Arizona room perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With parking on both sides, an attached storage shed, and included appliances (refrigerator, washer, and dryer), this home offers convenience and comfort at every turn. Nestled on a lot lease in a cute community just minutes from the 101 freeway and surrounded by great shopping and dining, this is your opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in a great location!

17. 2023-03-13
    soldstatus $74,000 Closed
18. 2023-03-01
    status Pending
19. 2023-02-05
    price $75,000
20. 2023-01-07
    listed $81,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,445
• − Management: −$1,445
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $9,928
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,383
• After-tax cash flow: $7,749/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming, updated mobile home in a prime 55+ community is move-in ready with fresh paint and energy-efficient updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Resale Replace blinds with energy-efficient window treatments — Modern window treatments can improve energy efficiency and aesthetics
• Rental Install a smart thermostat — Smart thermostats can reduce energy costs and attract renters
• Rental Add a smart lock — Smart locks can improve security and convenience for renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Replace blinds with energy-efficient window treatments — Modern window treatments can improve energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Rental Install a smart thermostat — Smart thermostats can reduce energy costs and attract renters ↑
• Rental Add a smart lock — Smart locks can improve security and convenience for renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 53,811
• Household income: $69,927
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2976.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -329.75%
• Current HPI: 313.5085
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.21%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-38.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $49,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $59,900 ARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $64,900 ARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $71,900 ARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $530,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-13 Listed $74,900 ARMLS
• 2023-03-13 Sold (MLS) $74,000 ARMLS
• 2023-03-01 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-02-05 Price Changed $75,000 ARMLS
• 2023-01-07 Listed $81,000 ARMLS