1115 E Tamarack St · Red Lake, AZ 86046

$100,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1974 1.03 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled among towering pinyon pines and junipers with sweeping views of the iconic Williams volcanic buttes, this 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath manufactured home offers an affordable entry point into northern Arizona's coveted high-country lifestyle. Sitting on a full acre of partially fenced land, the property delivers the seclusion and natural beauty that hunters, outdoor enthusiasts, and city-escape seekers have been searching for -- at an attainable price point. The single-level layout flows from a foyer through a full eat-in kitchen into a generous living room, with two bedrooms positioned at opposite ends of the home for added privacy. The primary bedroom features an en-suite vanity area and dual closets, while the secondary bedroom offers direct views of the surrounding landscape... Both bedrooms include ceiling fans, and the open kitchen-dining area has a gas cooktop, abundant cabinetry, and a slider door leading directly to the covered porch -- perfect for entertaining after a day on the trails. Whether you're looking for a hunting base camp, a weekend cabin, or a closer trek to the Grand Canyon, this property checks the boxes.

Key facts

• En-suite vanity area
• Gas cooktop
• Direct views

Tags

• PARTIALLY FENCED LAND
• EN-SUITE VANITY AREA
• DUAL CLOSETS
• DIRECT VIEWS
• GAS COOKTOP
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 1.8% in Red Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Williams Unified District (4193) (town): math 23% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #163 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 657 active listings in the ZIP; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.62%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,456
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1405 E Birchwood Dr	0.48mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	22mo	$148,000	$220	57
1438 E Ventura Ave	0.32mi	1/1.0 (-1)	640 (-5%)	20mo	$255,000	$398	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $73,235
• Equity at exit: $90,088

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.18×
• Total profit: $200,956
• Equity at exit: $194,278

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86046

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 657
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $364	-5% $329	+0% $294	+5% $260	+10% $225
Rent	-10% $196	-5% $245	+0% $294	+5% $344	+10% $393
Rate	-1.0pp $345	-0.5pp $320	base $294	+0.5pp $269	+1.0pp $242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $100,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $100,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 45 DOM
18. 2026-04-06
    listed $110,000 Active 1144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1144 chars)

    Nestled among towering pinyon pines and junipers with sweeping views of the iconic Williams volcanic buttes, this 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath manufactured home offers an affordable entry point into northern Arizona's coveted high-country lifestyle. Sitting on a full acre of partially fenced land, the property delivers the seclusion and natural beauty that hunters, outdoor enthusiasts, and city-escape seekers have been searching for -- at an attainable price point. The single-level layout flows from a foyer through a full eat-in kitchen into a generous living room, with two bedrooms positioned at opposite ends of the home for added privacy. The primary bedroom features an en-suite vanity area and dual closets, while the secondary bedroom offers direct views of the surrounding landscape... Both bedrooms include ceiling fans, and the open kitchen-dining area has a gas cooktop, abundant cabinetry, and a slider door leading directly to the covered porch -- perfect for entertaining after a day on the trails. Whether you're looking for a hunting base camp, a weekend cabin, or a closer trek to the Grand Canyon, this property checks the boxes.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,198
• − Management: −$1,198
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,064
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$495
• After-tax cash flow: $3,038/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williams Unified District (4193)
• NCES district ID: 0409310
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $43,336
• Composite: 20.59/100
• National rank: #8553
• State rank: #163 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Red Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Red Lake, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,669

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.78%
• Current HPI: 474.3252
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $110,000 NAZMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $102 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.