1630 Spinning Wheel Dr · Land O' Lakes, FL 33559

$5,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,638 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1989 6,534 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Our loss is your gain. Renovated over 85 percent. Located in the heart Of Carpenters run a great place for biking and walking on sidewalks. Carpenters run offers a chance for first time buyers to buy affordable in a good school district. This home needs some finishing touches but its close and would make a great value for a first time buyer. Priced reasonably at 205,000.00 seller is looking for offers. Great room plan offers family room and Great room among three bedrooms. Home features a large lanai 12 by 24 and nice backyard. Home has updated dimensional shingle roof, new ac and new interior and exterior paint plus updated cabinets and backsplash. Visit soon this one will not last!

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1989

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximate lot size 0.15 acres

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Other water source; Other sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Residential property; Planned Unit Development (PUD) zoning
• Construction: Construction materials: see remarks
• Exterior features: Front porch; Other roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 total room
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Other flooring

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $5,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$376,740) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $5k).
• Cap rate 438.4% vs local median 3.7% in Land O' Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 91 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $35 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $150 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 46.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 438.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 1543.36%
• DSCR: 69.67
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $376,740
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1814 Candlestick Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,609 (-2%)	4mo	$356,000	$221	85
24644 Laurel Ridge Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-7%)	1mo	$350,000	$230	74
1231 Avonwood Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,705 (+4%)	3mo	$375,000	$220	72
24318 Rolling View Ct	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+3%)	1mo	$399,000	$236	69
1414 Norwick Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,785 (+9%)	0mo	$380,000	$213	66
24134 Hampton Pl	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-4%)	4mo	$325,000	$206	65
1615 Cobbler Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-14%)	2mo	$350,000	$248	65
1841 Candlestick Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-14%)	2mo	$300,000	$214	64
24437 Painter Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,660 (+1%)	3mo	$335,000	$202	60
24425 Summer Wind Ct	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+3%)	3mo	$395,000	$234	58
24421 Breezy Oak Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-12%)	4mo	$345,000	$241	49
24473 Painter Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,393 (-15%)	4mo	$365,000	$262	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 77.50×
• Total profit: $107,097
• Equity at exit: $746

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 154.40×
• Total profit: $214,761
• Equity at exit: $432

Cash invested: $1,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33559

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,323 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6 /mo · $75/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $1,801

Break-even live

Break-even rent $44

Max offer price $5,000

Occupancy floor 17%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,250
• Closing costs: $150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24505 Landing Dr Lutz, FL	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,199	$1.21	20d	1	0.38mi
1314 Avonwood Ct Lutz, FL	4.0	2.0	1744	$2,295	$1.32	24d	1	0.38mi
2211 Amble Way Land O Lakes, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	969	$1,991	$2.05	2d	27	0.48mi
24900 Oakhaven Ct Lutz, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,450	$1.39	5d	1	0.52mi
24622 Portofino Dr Lutz, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,075	$1.34	24d	1	0.53mi
24815 Audrey Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,400	$1.79	24d	1	0.60mi
1810 Sweetbroom Cir Lutz, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1076	$2,289	$2.13	2d	43	0.63mi
1810 Sweetbroom Cir Lutz, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1128	$2,389	$2.12	15d	47	0.63mi
2300 Tapestry Park Dr Land O' Lakes, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1071	$2,626	$2.45	2d	12	0.79mi
2342 Tioga Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	2044	$2,400	$1.17	18d	1	0.81mi
2342 Tioga Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	2044	$2,400	$1.17	24d	1	0.81mi
23700 Viento Dr Land O' Lakes, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1102	$2,315	$2.10	2d	23	1.02mi
1726 Roseville St Lutz, FL	3.0	2.5	1801	$2,700	$1.50	22d	1	1.16mi
1901 Cypress Preserve Dr Lutz, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$2,251	$2.19	2d	26	1.25mi
23320 Papyrus Way Lutz, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,045	$1.25	11d	1	1.27mi
2052 Park Crescent Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1806	$2,150	$1.19	12d	1	1.34mi
2608 20 Mile Level Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,400	$1.60	24d	1	1.35mi
3000 Grand Cypress Dr Lutz, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$2,555	$2.44	3d	32	1.45mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 292-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $5,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$280
• − Property taxes: −$75
• − Insurance: −$25
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,230
• − Management: −$2,230
• − Depreciation: −$145
• Taxable income: $22,890
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,494
• After-tax cash flow: $16,113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Land O' Lakes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Land O' Lakes, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,831
• Household income: $80,185
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.64%
• Current HPI: 307.7635
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.58%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-94.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $5,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-04-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $345,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-13 Listed $355,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $209,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-10 Sold (MLS) $209,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-18 Listed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,095 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.