997 Wilderness Rd · Skyland Estates, VA 22642

$395,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2006 0.62 ac lot $392/sqft · 95% above area Est $391k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great price for a nice Rancher on slightly over 1/2 acre. Features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Nice kitchen. Deck off dining room. Full unfinished basement with walk-out. New carpet. Built 2006 - What a deal!

Key facts

• 0.62 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 2006

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Driveway with four spaces; Total of four garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Private well; Private septic tank; Electric power
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story main level with lower-level walkout; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Built in assessor-recorded year (source: Assessor)
• Exterior features: Deck(s); Trees/wooded lot; Walkout level basement

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove; Eat-in kitchen
• Basement: Full, fully finished walkout basement with connecting stairway
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms (two on main level, one on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric heating and cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Combination kitchen/dining; Master bathroom; Ceiling fans; Bathroom with walk-in shower; Entry-level bedroom; Traditional floor plan; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-761 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (34.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (47.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (47.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#414 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hilda J. Barbour Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 469 students, 66% FRL); Warren County High (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 833 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 34% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Warren County Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $113k; list at $395k implies a 250% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,969 (47.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.25%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 16.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $390,607
• List price: $395,000
• Delta: 1.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
649 Ulysses Way	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,008 (0%)	11mo	$335,000	$332	60
71 Stecher Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,132 (+12%)	17mo	$369,900	$327	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $166,491
• Equity at exit: $355,847

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $528,040
• Equity at exit: $767,398

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22642

• Home prices YoY: 10.6%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 16.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,060 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-761

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,023

Max offer price $260,598

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-537	-5% $-649	+0% $-761	+5% $-873	+10% $-984
Rent	-10% $-924	-5% $-842	+0% $-761	+5% $-679	+10% $-598
Rate	-1.0pp $-562	-0.5pp $-660	base $-761	+0.5pp $-863	+1.0pp $-967

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $395,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $395,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $395,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $395,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $395,000 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,900 Coming Soon 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,900 Coming Soon 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,900 Coming Soon 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $399,900 Coming Soon 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,900 Coming Soon 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,900 Coming Soon 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Coming Soon 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Coming Soon 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    historical $399,900 1525-char remark
15. 2011-05-27
    soldstatus $113,000 Sold 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great price for a nice Rancher on slightly over 1/2 acre. Features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Nice kitchen. Deck off dining room. Full unfinished basement with walk-out. New carpet. Built 2006 - What a deal!

16. 2011-05-27
    soldstatus $113,000

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great price for a nice Rancher on slightly over 1/2 acre. Features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Nice kitchen. Deck off dining room. Full unfinished basement with walk-out. New carpet. Built 2006 - What a deal!

17. 2011-05-14
    status Contract 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great price for a nice Rancher on slightly over 1/2 acre. Features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Nice kitchen. Deck off dining room. Full unfinished basement with walk-out. New carpet. Built 2006 - What a deal!

18. 2011-05-12
    historical

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great price for a nice Rancher on slightly over 1/2 acre. Features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Nice kitchen. Deck off dining room. Full unfinished basement with walk-out. New carpet. Built 2006 - What a deal!

19. 2011-03-21
    price $112,000 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great price for a nice Rancher on slightly over 1/2 acre. Features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Nice kitchen. Deck off dining room. Full unfinished basement with walk-out. New carpet. Built 2006 - What a deal!

20. 2011-03-16
    status Active 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great price for a nice Rancher on slightly over 1/2 acre. Features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Nice kitchen. Deck off dining room. Full unfinished basement with walk-out. New carpet. Built 2006 - What a deal!

21. 2011-02-06
    status Contract 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great price for a nice Rancher on slightly over 1/2 acre. Features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Nice kitchen. Deck off dining room. Full unfinished basement with walk-out. New carpet. Built 2006 - What a deal!

22. 2011-02-02
    status Active 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great price for a nice Rancher on slightly over 1/2 acre. Features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Nice kitchen. Deck off dining room. Full unfinished basement with walk-out. New carpet. Built 2006 - What a deal!

23. 2011-02-02
    historical Expired 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great price for a nice Rancher on slightly over 1/2 acre. Features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Nice kitchen. Deck off dining room. Full unfinished basement with walk-out. New carpet. Built 2006 - What a deal!

24. 2011-01-06
    price $119,000 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great price for a nice Rancher on slightly over 1/2 acre. Features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Nice kitchen. Deck off dining room. Full unfinished basement with walk-out. New carpet. Built 2006 - What a deal!

25. 2010-12-07
    price $125,500 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great price for a nice Rancher on slightly over 1/2 acre. Features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Nice kitchen. Deck off dining room. Full unfinished basement with walk-out. New carpet. Built 2006 - What a deal!

26. 2010-11-23
    price $131,000 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great price for a nice Rancher on slightly over 1/2 acre. Features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Nice kitchen. Deck off dining room. Full unfinished basement with walk-out. New carpet. Built 2006 - What a deal!

27. 2010-11-03
    listed $139,900 Active 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great price for a nice Rancher on slightly over 1/2 acre. Features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Nice kitchen. Deck off dining room. Full unfinished basement with walk-out. New carpet. Built 2006 - What a deal!

28. 2010-11-02
    listed $112,000

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great price for a nice Rancher on slightly over 1/2 acre. Features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Nice kitchen. Deck off dining room. Full unfinished basement with walk-out. New carpet. Built 2006 - What a deal!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,824 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,239 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,415/yr (+$118/mo · 77.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$1,824
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,977
• − Management: −$1,977
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$16,654
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,997
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,504
• Composite: 49.22/100
• National rank: #2039
• State rank: #70 of 131 in VA

Livability — Skyland Estates

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #414
• US rank: #17314

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Skyland Estates, VA
• Population (ZIP): 4,130

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,045 people
• By 2030: 43,257 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 45,088 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 45,567 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 46,081 · +9.6%
• By 2100: 42,093 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.6% · R 68.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+35.3 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.77%
• Current HPI: 437.0062
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+252.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $395,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $395,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-15 Coming Soon $399,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-05-27 Sold (MLS) $113,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-05-27 Sold (MLS) $113,000 MRIS
• 2011-05-14 Pending — MRIS
• 2011-05-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-03-21 Price Changed $112,000 MRIS
• 2011-03-16 Relisted — MRIS
• 2011-02-06 Pending — MRIS
• 2011-02-02 Relisted — MRIS
• 2011-02-02 Delisted — MRIS
• 2011-01-06 Price Changed $119,000 MRIS
• 2010-12-07 Price Changed $125,500 MRIS
• 2010-11-23 Price Changed $131,000 MRIS
• 2010-11-03 Listed $139,900 MRIS
• 2010-11-02 Listed $112,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,824 · +18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.