16912 Kempwood · Conroe, TX 77316

$167,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Land · 29 Days on market

Built 2025 2,256 sqft lot $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring modern finishes throughout. The open concept kitchen is a chef’s dream with a large island, sleek countertops, and stainless steel appliances. Contemporary fixtures add a touch of elegance in every room, creating a clean and stylish living space. Enjoy the ease of a built-in sprinkler system to keep your yard green year-round. Conveniently located just minutes from major shopping centers, dining, and entertainment, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Schedule your private tour today this one won’t last long!

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Large island
• 2,256 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BUILT-IN SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING CENTERS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Spectrum Association with an annual fee of $384

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2025)
• Construction: Built by Stonecreek Builders; Cement siding; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision; Additional parcel included

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms (includes all rooms)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Gas cooling
• Interior features: Microwave

🏗️ New construction. The $167,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $173,791.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $167k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $472 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $167k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 79% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,495 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.65%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,791
• List price: $167,000
• Delta: -3.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,108
• Equity at exit: $25,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $16,407
• Equity at exit: $15,026

Cash invested: $48,662 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,957 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$911
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $692/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,359

Max offer price $173,791

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,448
• Closing costs: $5,214
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	43d	1	0.05mi
16967 W Ivanhoe Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,350	$1.33	12d	1	0.12mi
16984 W Juneau Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1530	$2,900	$1.90	43d	1	0.13mi
16913 Glenheath Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1700	$1,571	$0.92	43d	1	0.16mi
16915 Balmoral Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	43d	1	0.28mi
1050 S Pine Lake Rd Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,845	$1.75	24d	1	0.65mi
15 April Vlg Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,650	$1.35	43d	1	0.84mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 5106C Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$2,820	$1.59	43d	1	0.96mi
298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	43d	1	1.01mi
135 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1624	$1,900	$1.17	43d	1	1.10mi
130 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1680	$2,250	$1.34	43d	1	1.10mi
124 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	1624	$2,900	$1.79	43d	1	1.13mi
124 April Point Dr S #124 Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,490	$1.15	20d	1	1.25mi
702 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1820	$4,000	$2.20	43d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $167,000 Pending 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $167,000 Pending 28 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $167,000 Pending 27 DOM
4. 2026-05-04
   listed $167,000 Active 627-char remark
5. 2026-04-24
   historical
6. 2026-04-13
   price $168,900
7. 2026-04-06
   price $169,900
8. 2026-03-11
   price $173,490
9. 2026-02-17
   price $174,490
10. 2026-01-20
    price $177,900
11. 2025-11-24
    price $178,900
12. 2025-10-16
    price $179,900
13. 2025-10-05
    price $180,000
14. 2025-08-13
    listed $184,990 Active
15. 2025-08-02
    historical
16. 2025-05-27
    price $187,499
17. 2025-05-14
    listed $189,999 Active
18. 2025-05-14
    historical
19. 2025-04-03
    price $189,999
20. 2025-03-29
    price $190,999
21. 2025-03-23
    price $192,999
22. 2025-03-03
    price $194,999
23. 2025-02-01
    price $199,999
24. 2024-12-20
    price $214,999
25. 2024-12-16
    price $229,999
26. 2024-10-31
    listed $209,000 Active
27. 2024-10-31
    historical
28. 2024-09-29
    price $209,000
29. 2024-09-27
    price $199,999
30. 2024-08-16
    listed $224,999 Active
31. 2024-03-28
    soldstatus Sold
32. 2024-01-30
    status Pending
33. 2024-01-18
    status Option Pending
34. 2024-01-18
    status Pending
35. 2024-01-12
    listed $39,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $692 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,056 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,364/yr (+$197/mo · 341.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,735
• − Property taxes: −$692
• − Insurance: −$869
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,879
• − Management: −$1,879
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$5,056
• Taxable income: $2,990
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$718
• After-tax cash flow: $4,952/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+328.2% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $167,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $168,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $173,490 HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $174,490 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $177,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $178,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-05 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed $184,990 HARMLS
• 2025-08-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $187,499 HARMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listed $189,999 HARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $189,999 HARMLS
• 2025-03-29 Price Changed $190,999 HARMLS
• 2025-03-23 Price Changed $192,999 HARMLS
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $194,999 HARMLS
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $199,999 HARMLS
• 2024-12-20 Price Changed $214,999 HARMLS
• 2024-12-16 Price Changed $229,999 HARMLS
• 2024-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-31 Listed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-29 Price Changed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-27 Price Changed $199,999 HARMLS
• 2024-08-16 Listed $224,999 HARMLS
• 2024-03-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-01-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-01-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-01-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-01-12 Listed $39,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $692 · +57.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.