5001 Sherman St · Houston, TX 77011

$309,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1945 6,481 sqft lot $180/sqft · 17% below area Est $374k · 17% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT LOCATION ,CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN

Key facts

• 6,481 sq ft lot
• Built 1945
• Listed 64 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-171 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,614/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 655% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,435 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.37%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $373,688
• List price: $309,000
• Delta: -17.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 Linwood St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,916 (+12%)	7mo	$175,000	$91	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $149,865
• Equity at exit: $278,372

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.04×
• Total profit: $436,354
• Equity at exit: $600,319

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77011

• Home prices YoY: 30.1%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,614 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$487 /mo · $5,841/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $-171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,830

Max offer price $278,867

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4	-5% $-83	+0% $-171	+5% $-258	+10% $-345
Rent	-10% $-377	-5% $-274	+0% $-171	+5% $-67	+10% $36
Rate	-1.0pp $-15	-0.5pp $-92	base $-171	+0.5pp $-251	+1.0pp $-332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5502 Texas St Unit 1514806P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1808	$7,179	$3.97	0d	1	0.36mi
5504 Texas St Unit 1514810P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1808	$7,146	$3.95	0d	1	0.36mi
2 Jenkins St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,250	$1.81	45d	1	0.50mi
6403 Avenue C Unit 1019625P Houston, TX	2.0–8.0	1.0–4.0	1232	$4,801	$3.90	0d	2	0.80mi
4001 Dallas St Unit 1029264P Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2174	$5,220	$2.40	0d	1	0.96mi
1907 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	5.0	5.0	1990	$999	$0.50	25d	1	1.30mi
800 Middle St Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,867	$1.86	6d	1	1.33mi
1010 S Wayside Dr #101 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,199	$0.86	25d	1	1.43mi
1010 S Wayside Dr #101 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,982	$1.42	45d	1	1.43mi
2816 Rusk St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2107	$2,800	$1.33	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $309,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $309,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $309,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $309,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-05-04
    price $309,000 33-char remark

    Show marketing remark (33 chars)

    GREAT LOCATION ,CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN

14. 2026-05-02
    price $327,900 33-char remark

    Show marketing remark (33 chars)

    GREAT LOCATION ,CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN

15. 2026-04-17
    listed $334,900 Active 33-char remark

    Show marketing remark (33 chars)

    GREAT LOCATION ,CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN

16. 2026-04-09
    historical
17. 2026-02-17
    price $334,900
18. 2026-01-09
    listed $350,000 Active
19. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,841 · $487/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,841 · $487/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$5,841
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,510
• − Management: −$2,510
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$7,331
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,759
• After-tax cash flow: $-287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,940
• Household income: $50,133
• Rent vs Own: 47.8% rent · 52.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 29% White 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 81%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 68.18%
• Current HPI: 295.1198
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.93%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $309,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $327,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $334,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $334,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,841 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.