143 Lukewood Cir · Conroe, TX 77318

$260,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,448 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,845 sqft lot $106/sqft · 28% below area Est $361k · 28% under $83/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Multiple offers highest and best due 4/21/26 1:00pm Open-concept design with soaring ceilings creates a bright, spacious feel throughout. The family room seamlessly flows into the island kitchen, featuring stylish two-tone cabinetry, sleek white countertops, stainless steel appliances, a single-basin island sink, and a pantry. Durable wood-look flooring extends through the main living areas for both beauty and ease of maintenance. All bedrooms offer generous walk-in closets, while the primary suite is a true retreat with a bay window sitting area. The en-suite bath includes a freestanding soaking tub and a separate shower for a spa-like experience. Enjoy outdoor living on the extended covered patio. Additional highlights include a tankless water heater and a full sprinkler system. Conveniently located with easy access to schools, shopping, and dining.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Island kitchen
• White countertops

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• TWO-TONE CABINETRY
• WHITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SINGLE-BASIN ISLAND SINK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-351 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (9.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $260k).
• Recommended offer: $236k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W Lloyd Meador El (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 617 students, 43% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,219 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.78%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,978
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -27.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
143 Lukewood Cir	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,448 (0%)	0mo	$260,000	$106	98
810 Spruce Pine Dr	0.15mi	4/3.5	2,420 (-1%)	1mo	$335,000	$138	90
168 Gray Pine Grove Way	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,192 (-10%)	1mo	$410,000	$187	73
622 Starlit Sky Ct	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,623 (+7%)	2mo	$472,994	$180	67
122 Artisan Ridge Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,513 (+3%)	4mo	$474,000	$189	66
106 Rosa Peace Ter	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,657 (+8%)	4mo	$379,900	$143	62
121 N Cadence Hills Loop	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,210 (-10%)	3mo	$364,000	$165	61
217 Woods Rose Ct	0.40mi	4/3.5	2,772 (+13%)	4mo	$379,900	$137	56
227 Garden Rose Trl	0.39mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,746 (+12%)	1mo	$434,999	$158	54
209 Bronzewood Terrace Ct	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,730 (+12%)	3mo	$379,990	$139	44
139 Silva Creek Trl	0.53mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,796 (+14%)	4mo	$369,000	$132	42
107 Brighton Woods Ct	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,128 (-13%)	0mo	$366,200	$172	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-72,102
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -68.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.66×
• Total profit: $-120,913
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,770 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$984 /mo · $11,811/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $-351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,214

Max offer price $236,219

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $488	-5% $-277	+0% $-351	+5% $-425	+10% $-498
Rent	-10% $-570	-5% $-460	+0% $-351	+5% $-242	+10% $-132
Rate	-1.0pp $-220	-0.5pp $-285	base $-351	+0.5pp $-418	+1.0pp $-487

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
347 Skyline Ridge Dr Willis, TX	3.0	3.0	3000	$3,100	$1.03	45d	1	0.47mi
8026 N Tarrytown Crossing Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2686	$2,179	$0.81	45d	1	1.42mi
8015 N Tarrytown Crossing Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	3082	$2,266	$0.74	0d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   Multiple offers highest and best due 4/21/26 1:00pm Open-concept design with soaring ceilings creates a bright, spacious feel throughout. The family room seamlessly flows into the island kitchen, featuring stylish two-tone cabinetry, sleek white countertops, stainless steel appliances, a single-basin island sink, and a pantry. Durable wood-look flooring extends through the main living areas for both beauty and ease of maintenance. All bedrooms offer generous walk-in closets, while the primary suite is a true retreat with a bay window sitting area. The en-suite bath includes a freestanding soaking tub and a separate shower for a spa-like experience. Enjoy outdoor living on the extended covered patio. Additional highlights include a tankless water heater and a full sprinkler system. Conveniently located with easy access to schools, shopping, and dining.

2. 2026-04-17
   listed $260,000 Active 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   Multiple offers highest and best due 4/21/26 1:00pm Open-concept design with soaring ceilings creates a bright, spacious feel throughout. The family room seamlessly flows into the island kitchen, featuring stylish two-tone cabinetry, sleek white countertops, stainless steel appliances, a single-basin island sink, and a pantry. Durable wood-look flooring extends through the main living areas for both beauty and ease of maintenance. All bedrooms offer generous walk-in closets, while the primary suite is a true retreat with a bay window sitting area. The en-suite bath includes a freestanding soaking tub and a separate shower for a spa-like experience. Enjoy outdoor living on the extended covered patio. Additional highlights include a tankless water heater and a full sprinkler system. Conveniently located with easy access to schools, shopping, and dining.

3. 2023-05-18
   soldstatus Sold 657-char remark

   Show marketing remark (657 chars)

   MLS# 29714373 - Built by Highland Homes - Ready Now! ~ Open plan with tall ceilings. Family room opens to island kitchen with two-tone cabinets (white upper and natural lower), white countertops and stainless appliances inclusive of single basin island sink, and walk-in pantry. Wood-look flooring throughout main living areas. All bedrooms have walk-in closets. Pimary Bed has bay window sitting area. Primary bath with free standing tub and separate shower. Extended Covered Patio. Tankless water heater and Smart Home Technology also included as well as full sod yard and sprinkler system. Easy Access to schools, shopping, dining and medical facilities.

4. 2023-04-24
   status Pending 657-char remark

   Show marketing remark (657 chars)

   MLS# 29714373 - Built by Highland Homes - Ready Now! ~ Open plan with tall ceilings. Family room opens to island kitchen with two-tone cabinets (white upper and natural lower), white countertops and stainless appliances inclusive of single basin island sink, and walk-in pantry. Wood-look flooring throughout main living areas. All bedrooms have walk-in closets. Pimary Bed has bay window sitting area. Primary bath with free standing tub and separate shower. Extended Covered Patio. Tankless water heater and Smart Home Technology also included as well as full sod yard and sprinkler system. Easy Access to schools, shopping, dining and medical facilities.

5. 2022-12-02
   listed $440,000 Active 657-char remark

   Show marketing remark (657 chars)

   MLS# 29714373 - Built by Highland Homes - Ready Now! ~ Open plan with tall ceilings. Family room opens to island kitchen with two-tone cabinets (white upper and natural lower), white countertops and stainless appliances inclusive of single basin island sink, and walk-in pantry. Wood-look flooring throughout main living areas. All bedrooms have walk-in closets. Pimary Bed has bay window sitting area. Primary bath with free standing tub and separate shower. Extended Covered Patio. Tankless water heater and Smart Home Technology also included as well as full sod yard and sprinkler system. Easy Access to schools, shopping, dining and medical facilities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,811 · $984/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,811 · $984/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$11,811
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,659
• − Management: −$2,659
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$8,316
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,996
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minimal repairs and maintenance. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior siding, landscaping improvements, and replacing carpet with hardwood flooring.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-04-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-12-02 Listed $440,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+111.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,811 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.