10952 Keys Gate Dr · Riverview, FL 33579

$184,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · Townhouse public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2010 1,188 sqft lot $383/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

An incredible townhome to call home! Offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bath, open living area, hardwood in dining and living area, ceramic tile in all wet areas. Newer paint, and carpet through out! Looking for maintenance free living and resort style amenities? This is it! Granite counter tops with stainless steel appliances! Community has tennis and basketball courts, recreation center, park, playground and pool.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Private bath
• Laundry room

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIVATE PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($612/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $184k).
• Recommended offer: $173k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 457 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,960 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.42% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-17,718
• Equity at exit: $40,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-14,146
• Equity at exit: $39,695

Cash invested: $51,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33579

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 457
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,179 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax from tax record: −$246 /mo · $2,954/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$383
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,115

Max offer price $184,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $103	+0% $51	+5% $-1	+10% $-53
Rent	-10% $-121	-5% $-35	+0% $51	+5% $137	+10% $223
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $98	base $51	+0.5pp $3	+1.0pp $-45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,000
• Closing costs: $5,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10932 Keys Gate Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1408	$1,750	$1.24	3d	1	0.01mi
10943 Keys Gate Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1532	$1,800	$1.17	3d	1	0.03mi
10811 Brickside Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1408	$1,675	$1.19	25d	1	0.10mi
10811 Brickside Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1408	$1,675	$1.19	18d	1	0.10mi
12906 Trade Port Pl Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1532	$1,800	$1.17	25d	1	0.10mi
10806 Brickside Ct Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1448	$1,650	$1.14	3d	1	0.12mi
12942 Utopia Gardens Way Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$2,350	$1.41	3d	1	0.20mi
12942 Utopia Gardens Way Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$2,390	$1.43	0d	1	0.20mi
12961 Utopia Gardens Way Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$1,890	$1.13	16d	1	0.24mi
12938 Fennway Ridge Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1541	$2,000	$1.30	0d	1	0.26mi
13114 Fennway Ridge Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1556	$2,245	$1.44	2d	1	0.41mi
13130 Fennway Ridge Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1736	$2,219	$1.28	3d	1	0.46mi
12820 Belvedere Song Way Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1513	$2,000	$1.32	25d	1	0.60mi
13106 Dobree Pl Riverview, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$2,350	$1.67	25d	1	0.62mi
11030 Whittney Chase Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$2,295	$1.81	0d	1	0.65mi
10221 Summerview Cir Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,969	$1.33	25d	1	0.66mi
12612 Ocelot Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,100	$1.62	5d	1	0.66mi
11025 Whittney Chase Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1544	$2,235	$1.45	2d	1	0.68mi
11218 Scotchwood Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1546	$2,150	$1.39	15d	1	0.69mi
12805 Avelar Manor Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1832	$2,375	$1.30	24d	1	0.70mi
12604 Montford Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1499	$1,950	$1.30	4d	1	0.72mi
10334 Summerview Cir Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1425	$2,180	$1.53	0d	1	0.72mi
12712 Longcrest Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1608	$2,200	$1.37	25d	1	0.73mi
11105 Cherrywood Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1364	$2,110	$1.55	25d	1	0.75mi
11110 Cherrywood Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1264	$2,045	$1.62	5d	1	0.78mi
12722 Evington Point Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,150	$1.23	5d	1	0.80mi
12722 Evington Point Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1754	$2,150	$1.23	25d	1	0.80mi
10428 Orchid Mist Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1789	$2,035	$1.14	5d	1	0.81mi
13311 Laraway Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,779	$1.57	3d	1	0.82mi
10425 Red Carpet Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	3.0	1688	$2,150	$1.27	21d	1	0.82mi
12605 Longcrest Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,150	$1.43	4d	1	0.83mi
13344 Laraway Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,829	$1.54	3d	1	0.86mi
13332 Laraway Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,021	$1.78	5d	1	0.88mi
12845 Longcrest Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1812	$2,205	$1.22	0d	1	0.90mi
12906 Longcrest Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1596	$2,290	$1.43	2d	1	0.91mi
10925 Subtle Trail Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1716	$2,000	$1.17	25d	1	0.91mi
12327 Healey Summit Ln Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1390	$1,750	$1.26	25d	1	0.97mi
12914 Astorwood Pl Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1808	$2,395	$1.32	0d	1	0.99mi
11025 Golden Silence Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1785	$2,210	$1.24	14d	1	1.00mi
12514 Early Run Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1856	$2,225	$1.20	25d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $383 · $4,596/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-01-15
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-31
   price $184,000
3. 2025-11-11
   price $189,000
4. 2025-10-28
   listed $230,000 Active
5. 2022-08-15
   soldstatus $195,000
6. 2022-07-19
   price $235,000
7. 2022-07-14
   price $224,900
8. 2022-06-14
   listed $230,000 Active
9. 2017-10-18
   soldstatus $117,000
10. 2017-10-11
    soldstatus $117,000 Sold 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    An incredible townhome to call home! Offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bath, open living area, hardwood in dining and living area, ceramic tile in all wet areas. Newer paint, and carpet through out! Looking for maintenance free living and resort style amenities? This is it! Granite counter tops with stainless steel appliances! Community has tennis and basketball courts, recreation center, park, playground and pool.

11. 2017-08-24
    price $120,000 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    An incredible townhome to call home! Offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bath, open living area, hardwood in dining and living area, ceramic tile in all wet areas. Newer paint, and carpet through out! Looking for maintenance free living and resort style amenities? This is it! Granite counter tops with stainless steel appliances! Community has tennis and basketball courts, recreation center, park, playground and pool.

12. 2017-08-24
    status Pending 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    An incredible townhome to call home! Offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bath, open living area, hardwood in dining and living area, ceramic tile in all wet areas. Newer paint, and carpet through out! Looking for maintenance free living and resort style amenities? This is it! Granite counter tops with stainless steel appliances! Community has tennis and basketball courts, recreation center, park, playground and pool.

13. 2017-08-18
    listed $116,000 Active 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    An incredible townhome to call home! Offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bath, open living area, hardwood in dining and living area, ceramic tile in all wet areas. Newer paint, and carpet through out! Looking for maintenance free living and resort style amenities? This is it! Granite counter tops with stainless steel appliances! Community has tennis and basketball courts, recreation center, park, playground and pool.

14. 2015-01-07
    soldstatus $102,000
15. 2015-01-02
    soldstatus $102,000 Sold
16. 2014-12-11
    historical Contingent - Inspections
17. 2014-12-02
    listed $103,900 Active
18. 2007-12-03
    soldstatus $3,524,600
19. 2005-09-29
    soldstatus $3,258,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,954 · $246/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,954 · $246/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥109°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,152
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,307
• − Property taxes: −$2,954
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,092
• − Management: −$2,092
• − HOA: −$4,596
• − Depreciation: −$5,353
• Taxable loss: −$2,161
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$519
• After-tax cash flow: $1,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Riverview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #2000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverview, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 137,988
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,470
• Household income: $116,134
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 258.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 24% Two or more races 19% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% British 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Current HPI: 240.5825
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-94.4% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $184,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-28 Listed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-19 Price Changed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-14 Price Changed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-14 Listed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-11 Sold (MLS) $117,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-24 Price Changed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-18 Listed $116,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records
• 2015-01-02 Sold (MLS) $102,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-11 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-02 Listed $103,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $3,524,600 Public Records
• 2005-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $3,258,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,954 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.