645 Downstream Ct · Aiken, SC 29801

$259,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,408 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,575 sqft lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Big Bend plan features 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 2,408 square feet of thoughtfully designed 2 story living space. As you step into the welcoming entryway, you will find a convenient half bathroom and the staircase leading to the upper level. Continue down the hall past the stairway and you will find an open concept living and dining area on the main floor. The kitchen, complete with a central island, overlooks the dining and living room, creating a perfect space for meals and family time. Off the living room, you will also have a downstairs bedroom perfect for guests or a study. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with its own bathroom. Four a

Key facts

• 5,575 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No community features listed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; New construction; Residential property
• Construction: Built by National HomeCorp; Frame construction with vinyl siding; Shingle (asphalt) roof; Slab foundation; Home warranty included
• Exterior features: Patio; Level lot; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 9 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating (electric); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $259,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $303,408.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-318 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.1% in Aiken — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#93 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Aiken 01 (suburban): math 31% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #36 of 80 in SC (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Aiken Elementary (math 12% / reading 19%, grade F, #539 of 597 statewide, top 91%, 466 students, 100% FRL); Aiken High (math 19% / reading 84%, grade D+, #146 of 196 statewide, top 75%, 1,195 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 54% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 522 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,500 units permitted in Aiken County in 2024 (1,023 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,252/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 1260% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Aiken County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $225,158 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.49%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,408
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5938 Cobalt Fls Bnd	0.17mi	5/3.0	2,334 (-3%)	7mo	$278,990	$120	79
438 Narrow Bridge Ct	0.15mi	5/2.5	2,230 (-7%)	2mo	$279,900	$126	79
438 Narrow Bridge Ct	0.15mi	5/2.5	2,230 (-7%)	2mo	$279,900	$126	79
7182 Foggy River Dr	0.25mi	5/2.5	2,459 (+2%)	12mo	$311,400	$127	75
210 NW Shingle Oak Garden Gdn	0.48mi	5/3.0	2,433 (+1%)	7mo	$303,968	$125	68
220 NW Shingle Oak Garden Gdn	0.49mi	5/3.0	2,273 (-6%)	1mo	$279,990	$123	65
698 Shumard Oak Pl NW	0.42mi	5/2.5	2,576 (+7%)	6mo	$319,900	$124	64
9027 Wafer Ash Bnd NW	0.44mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,341 (-3%)	14mo	$334,900	$143	58
7044 Mongolian Oak Dr NW	0.36mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,574 (+7%)	13mo	$325,000	$126	56
9212 Wafer Ash Bnd NW	0.46mi	5/3.0	2,225 (-8%)	13mo	$319,900	$144	53
421 Tasmanian Oak Aly NW	0.43mi	5/3.0	2,225 (-8%)	15mo	$322,105	$145	53
9178 Wafer Ash Bnd NW	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,574 (+7%)	14mo	$319,779	$124	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-64,625
• Equity at exit: $45,239

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-61,834
• Equity at exit: $26,233

Cash invested: $84,954 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29801

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 522
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,252 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,591
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$379 /mo · $4,551/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,654

Max offer price $257,388

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-108	-5% $-213	+0% $-318	+5% $-423	+10% $-528
Rent	-10% $-496	-5% $-407	+0% $-318	+5% $-229	+10% $-140
Rate	-1.0pp $-165	-0.5pp $-241	base $-318	+0.5pp $-397	+1.0pp $-477

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,852
• Closing costs: $9,102
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
844 Silent Barge Cv Aiken, SC	4.0	2.5	1763	$1,899	$1.08	25d	1	0.14mi
7034 Foggy River Dr Aiken, SC	5.0	2.0	2459	$2,375	$0.97	25d	1	0.17mi
7113 Foggy River Dr Aiken, SC	4.0	2.5	2172	$2,035	$0.94	25d	1	0.20mi
7259 Foggy River Dr Aiken, SC	4.0	2.0	2157	$2,045	$0.95	15d	1	0.24mi
755 Teague St NW Aiken, SC	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,200	$1.10	15d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,990 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,990 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $259,990 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $263,990 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $263,990 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $263,990 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $263,990 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $263,990 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $263,990 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $263,990 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $263,990 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $263,990 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $263,990 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $263,990 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $263,990 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $263,990 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-09
    price $263,990
18. 2026-04-13
    listed $278,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,996
• − Property taxes: −$4,551
• − Insurance: −$1,517
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,162
• − Management: −$2,162
• − Depreciation: −$8,826
• Taxable loss: −$9,194
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,207
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,610/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It has a good layout and ample space, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aiken 01
• NCES district ID: 4500720
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,081
• Composite: 31.91/100
• National rank: #5857
• State rank: #36 of 80 in SC

Livability — Aiken

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #10443

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Aiken County · 116,534 people
• City population: 71,807
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• Population (ZIP): 31,108
• Household income: $59,573
• Rent vs Own: 33.2% rent · 66.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1260.0

Population outlook (Aiken County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 178,003 people
• By 2030: 182,876 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 189,970 · +6.7%
• By 2050: 193,840 · +8.9%
• By 2075: 199,453 · +12.1%
• By 2100: 192,403 · +8.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Aiken

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.9) · D 36.4% · R 62.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.9pp toward R · 2008: -24.0pp · 2024: -25.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.9 2020: R+22.7 2016: R+27.5 2012: R+26.0 2008: R+24.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -278.52%
• Current HPI: 173.7944
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.06%
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

-5.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $263,990 AMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $278,990 AMLS