53 Guadalajara Dr · Sonoma, CA 95476

$265,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 301 Days on market

Built 1988 18 ac lot $184/sqft · 37% above area Est $193k · 37% over ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfectly located and well positioned close to the seasonal creek, this 1988 manufactured home boasts vaulted ceilings, with a spacious living, dining, family room combination. Opening to the living space the open and spacious kitchen invites your guests to gather and enjoy. The large ensuite master bedroom and bath allow comfort to retreat and relax along with an additional bedroom, bath and laundry room bring convenience to home. The serene setting near the creek with lovely, planted gardens, screen-room patio, and covered carport complete the property. A home ideally suited to artistic and creative living in a well managed 55+ community providing activities, common recreation areas, a clubhouse, pool, spa, and putting green. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants and downtown. The state-of-the-art clubhouse provides a pool, spa, and a putting green. Welcome to your new home!

Key facts

• 17.83 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1988

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $868 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
• Recommended offer: $233k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 1.3% in Sonoma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#146 in CA, #4,943 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Sonoma Valley Unified (town): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #849 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 265 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.04%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,978
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: 37.32%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Merida Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$250,000	$174	85
118 Pepito Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$235,000	$163	84
74 Guaymas Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,470 (+2%)	9mo	$267,500	$182	81
102 Hermosillo Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	20mo	$339,000	$252	67
6 Chico Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	21mo	$240,000	$160	67
220 Cazares Cir	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,490 (+4%)	23mo	$300,000	$201	65
34 Mazatlan Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	20mo	$339,000	$252	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $4,970
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $46,552
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95476

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,417 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$718
• Net cashflow: $868

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,318

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,051	-5% $960	+0% $868	+5% $777	+10% $685
Rent	-10% $598	-5% $733	+0% $868	+5% $1,003	+10% $1,138
Rate	-1.0pp $1,002	-0.5pp $936	base $868	+0.5pp $800	+1.0pp $730

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
751 Juniper Ct Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1550	$3,900	$2.52	45d	1	0.15mi
655 W Spain St Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1349	$3,525	$2.61	15d	1	0.51mi
434 Bernice Ln Unit 1546207P Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	979	$4,564	$4.66	15d	1	0.53mi
790 2nd St W Sonoma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	975	$2,660	$2.73	15d	3	0.64mi
340 Church St Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.5	1282	$3,750	$2.93	45d	1	0.67mi
663 Spring Ln Sonoma, CA	2.0	1.0	1050	$3,200	$3.05	45d	1	0.70mi
210 Tuscany Pl Sonoma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1200	$2,750	$2.29	15d	1	0.73mi
208 Todd Ave Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.5	1384	$3,800	$2.75	15d	1	0.82mi
21 Ramon St Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,250	$1.56	24d	1	0.83mi
1211 Broadway Unit 1213 Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1200	$3,600	$3.00	24d	1	0.86mi
1207 Broadway Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1200	$3,600	$3.00	24d	1	0.87mi
1207 Broadway Unit 1209 Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1200	$3,750	$3.12	45d	1	0.87mi
19019 5th St W Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.0	1286	$3,400	$2.64	15d	1	1.03mi
336 Las Casitas Ct Sonoma, CA	2.0	1.5	1158	$2,500	$2.16	45d	1	1.26mi
126 Blue Wing Dr Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,975	$2.57	15d	2	1.27mi
126 Blue Wing Dr #11 Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1156	$3,200	$2.77	15d	1	1.28mi
492 Chase St Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.0	1694	$4,750	$2.80	22d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 301 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 298 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 297 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 296 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 295 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,000 Active 293 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 292 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 290 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 289 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $265,000 Active 288 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 287 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $265,000 Active 284 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 283 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 282 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 281 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 280 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 279 DOM
18. 2026-04-03
    price $265,000 904-char remark

    Show marketing remark (904 chars)

    Perfectly located and well positioned close to the seasonal creek, this 1988 manufactured home boasts vaulted ceilings, with a spacious living, dining, family room combination. Opening to the living space the open and spacious kitchen invites your guests to gather and enjoy. The large ensuite master bedroom and bath allow comfort to retreat and relax along with an additional bedroom, bath and laundry room bring convenience to home. The serene setting near the creek with lovely, planted gardens, screen-room patio, and covered carport complete the property. A home ideally suited to artistic and creative living in a well managed 55+ community providing activities, common recreation areas, a clubhouse, pool, spa, and putting green. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants and downtown. The state-of-the-art clubhouse provides a pool, spa, and a putting green. Welcome to your new home!

19. 2026-01-10
    status Active 904-char remark

    Show marketing remark (904 chars)

    Perfectly located and well positioned close to the seasonal creek, this 1988 manufactured home boasts vaulted ceilings, with a spacious living, dining, family room combination. Opening to the living space the open and spacious kitchen invites your guests to gather and enjoy. The large ensuite master bedroom and bath allow comfort to retreat and relax along with an additional bedroom, bath and laundry room bring convenience to home. The serene setting near the creek with lovely, planted gardens, screen-room patio, and covered carport complete the property. A home ideally suited to artistic and creative living in a well managed 55+ community providing activities, common recreation areas, a clubhouse, pool, spa, and putting green. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants and downtown. The state-of-the-art clubhouse provides a pool, spa, and a putting green. Welcome to your new home!

20. 2025-10-27
    price $282,000 904-char remark

    Show marketing remark (904 chars)

    Perfectly located and well positioned close to the seasonal creek, this 1988 manufactured home boasts vaulted ceilings, with a spacious living, dining, family room combination. Opening to the living space the open and spacious kitchen invites your guests to gather and enjoy. The large ensuite master bedroom and bath allow comfort to retreat and relax along with an additional bedroom, bath and laundry room bring convenience to home. The serene setting near the creek with lovely, planted gardens, screen-room patio, and covered carport complete the property. A home ideally suited to artistic and creative living in a well managed 55+ community providing activities, common recreation areas, a clubhouse, pool, spa, and putting green. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants and downtown. The state-of-the-art clubhouse provides a pool, spa, and a putting green. Welcome to your new home!

21. 2025-08-15
    status Active 904-char remark

    Show marketing remark (904 chars)

    Perfectly located and well positioned close to the seasonal creek, this 1988 manufactured home boasts vaulted ceilings, with a spacious living, dining, family room combination. Opening to the living space the open and spacious kitchen invites your guests to gather and enjoy. The large ensuite master bedroom and bath allow comfort to retreat and relax along with an additional bedroom, bath and laundry room bring convenience to home. The serene setting near the creek with lovely, planted gardens, screen-room patio, and covered carport complete the property. A home ideally suited to artistic and creative living in a well managed 55+ community providing activities, common recreation areas, a clubhouse, pool, spa, and putting green. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants and downtown. The state-of-the-art clubhouse provides a pool, spa, and a putting green. Welcome to your new home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,975
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,280
• − Management: −$3,280
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable income: $6,591
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,582
• After-tax cash flow: $8,836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonoma Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $63,880
• Composite: 33.88/100
• National rank: #10355
• State rank: #849 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sonoma

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #4943

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sonoma, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 35,196
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,196
• Household income: $105,374
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1116.03%
• Current HPI: 236.6408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $265,000 BAREIS
• 2026-01-10 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $282,000 BAREIS
• 2025-08-15 Relisted — BAREIS

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $369 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.