6550 Ponto Dr #39 · Carlsbad, CA 92011

$259,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1975 $360/sqft · 32% above area Est $310k · 16% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Live at Ponto Beach in Carlsbad living, at Lanikai Lane! This completely upgraded property brings the relaxing beach lifestyle you've been dreaming of. Indulge in the convenience of easy access to the Train Station, amazing restaurants, shopping centers, and easy access to the I-5 freeway ensuring you have everything within your reach. Enjoy the benefits of no age restrictions. Bring the family and experience one of the most highly rated school districts in North County. The community amenities are an added bonus, creating opportunities for leisure resort living. There are no HOA fees or high taxes. The community also allows for 2 pets on approval; making this a perfect place for your furry friends. Don't miss this incredible opportunity to live your best life at Lanikai Lane. Embrace the beauty of coastal living, the convenience of nearby amenities, and the comfort of your fully upgraded home. Welcome to your new paradise at the ocean! Consider a roof deck for sunset and moon set viewing. Begin your best life NOW! space lease is $2850 monthly.

Key facts

• New stove
• Carlsbad ponto beach
• New bathroom

Tags

• CARLSBAD PONTO BEACH
• NEW REFRIGERATOR
• NEW STOVE
• NEW RANGE
• NEW SINK
• NEW BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool; Building name: Lanikai

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Electricity available and connected; Underground utilities; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Updated / remodeled
• Construction: Fiberglass and mixed roof
• Exterior features: Community in-ground pool; Gate fence; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Gas cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Electric freestanding fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer located in a common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $259k).
• Recommended offer: $255k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($159k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $259k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,115 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.35%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,000
• List price: $259,000
• Delta: -16.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $110,490
• Equity at exit: $98,653

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.96×
• Total profit: $287,347
• Equity at exit: $139,418

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92011

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,128 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$324 /mo · $3,885/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$867
• Net cashflow: $1,471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,266

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6938 Seascape Dr Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$3,775	$4.66	3d	9	0.84mi
1205 Aviara Pkwy Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	917	$4,880	$5.32	2d	42	1.37mi

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $259,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-05-10
    listed $259,000 Active 406-char remark
11. 2026-02-17
    historical
12. 2026-01-11
    price $239,000
13. 2025-10-04
    listed $249,000 Active
14. 2025-07-11
    soldstatus $98,000 Closed Sale

    Show marketing remark (1062 chars)

    Live at Ponto Beach in Carlsbad living, at Lanikai Lane! This completely upgraded property brings the relaxing beach lifestyle you've been dreaming of. Indulge in the convenience of easy access to the Train Station, amazing restaurants, shopping centers, and easy access to the I-5 freeway ensuring you have everything within your reach. Enjoy the benefits of no age restrictions. Bring the family and experience one of the most highly rated school districts in North County. The community amenities are an added bonus, creating opportunities for leisure resort living. There are no HOA fees or high taxes. The community also allows for 2 pets on approval; making this a perfect place for your furry friends. Don't miss this incredible opportunity to live your best life at Lanikai Lane. Embrace the beauty of coastal living, the convenience of nearby amenities, and the comfort of your fully upgraded home. Welcome to your new paradise at the ocean! Consider a roof deck for sunset and moon set viewing. Begin your best life NOW! space lease is $2850 monthly.

15. 2025-06-27
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (1062 chars)

    Live at Ponto Beach in Carlsbad living, at Lanikai Lane! This completely upgraded property brings the relaxing beach lifestyle you've been dreaming of. Indulge in the convenience of easy access to the Train Station, amazing restaurants, shopping centers, and easy access to the I-5 freeway ensuring you have everything within your reach. Enjoy the benefits of no age restrictions. Bring the family and experience one of the most highly rated school districts in North County. The community amenities are an added bonus, creating opportunities for leisure resort living. There are no HOA fees or high taxes. The community also allows for 2 pets on approval; making this a perfect place for your furry friends. Don't miss this incredible opportunity to live your best life at Lanikai Lane. Embrace the beauty of coastal living, the convenience of nearby amenities, and the comfort of your fully upgraded home. Welcome to your new paradise at the ocean! Consider a roof deck for sunset and moon set viewing. Begin your best life NOW! space lease is $2850 monthly.

16. 2025-06-11
    price $169,000

    Show marketing remark (1062 chars)

    Live at Ponto Beach in Carlsbad living, at Lanikai Lane! This completely upgraded property brings the relaxing beach lifestyle you've been dreaming of. Indulge in the convenience of easy access to the Train Station, amazing restaurants, shopping centers, and easy access to the I-5 freeway ensuring you have everything within your reach. Enjoy the benefits of no age restrictions. Bring the family and experience one of the most highly rated school districts in North County. The community amenities are an added bonus, creating opportunities for leisure resort living. There are no HOA fees or high taxes. The community also allows for 2 pets on approval; making this a perfect place for your furry friends. Don't miss this incredible opportunity to live your best life at Lanikai Lane. Embrace the beauty of coastal living, the convenience of nearby amenities, and the comfort of your fully upgraded home. Welcome to your new paradise at the ocean! Consider a roof deck for sunset and moon set viewing. Begin your best life NOW! space lease is $2850 monthly.

17. 2025-06-11
    price $169,900

    Show marketing remark (1062 chars)

    Live at Ponto Beach in Carlsbad living, at Lanikai Lane! This completely upgraded property brings the relaxing beach lifestyle you've been dreaming of. Indulge in the convenience of easy access to the Train Station, amazing restaurants, shopping centers, and easy access to the I-5 freeway ensuring you have everything within your reach. Enjoy the benefits of no age restrictions. Bring the family and experience one of the most highly rated school districts in North County. The community amenities are an added bonus, creating opportunities for leisure resort living. There are no HOA fees or high taxes. The community also allows for 2 pets on approval; making this a perfect place for your furry friends. Don't miss this incredible opportunity to live your best life at Lanikai Lane. Embrace the beauty of coastal living, the convenience of nearby amenities, and the comfort of your fully upgraded home. Welcome to your new paradise at the ocean! Consider a roof deck for sunset and moon set viewing. Begin your best life NOW! space lease is $2850 monthly.

18. 2025-05-01
    historical
19. 2024-11-02
    price $199,900
20. 2024-09-27
    status Active
21. 2024-09-05
    historical
22. 2024-08-09
    price $219,000
23. 2024-07-21
    price $229,000
24. 2024-05-09
    listed $249,000 Active
25. 2024-05-04
    historical
26. 2024-04-30
    listed $189,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (1062 chars)

    Live at Ponto Beach in Carlsbad living, at Lanikai Lane! This completely upgraded property brings the relaxing beach lifestyle you've been dreaming of. Indulge in the convenience of easy access to the Train Station, amazing restaurants, shopping centers, and easy access to the I-5 freeway ensuring you have everything within your reach. Enjoy the benefits of no age restrictions. Bring the family and experience one of the most highly rated school districts in North County. The community amenities are an added bonus, creating opportunities for leisure resort living. There are no HOA fees or high taxes. The community also allows for 2 pets on approval; making this a perfect place for your furry friends. Don't miss this incredible opportunity to live your best life at Lanikai Lane. Embrace the beauty of coastal living, the convenience of nearby amenities, and the comfort of your fully upgraded home. Welcome to your new paradise at the ocean! Consider a roof deck for sunset and moon set viewing. Begin your best life NOW! space lease is $2850 monthly.

27. 2023-11-16
    soldstatus $235,000 Closed Sale
28. 2023-11-09
    status Pending Sale
29. 2023-10-25
    status Active
30. 2023-10-19
    historical Active Under Contract
31. 2023-08-10
    listed $250,000 Active
32. 2023-08-05
    historical $250,000
33. 2014-08-01
    soldstatus $99,000
34. 2014-08-01
    soldstatus $99,000 Sold
35. 2014-07-04
    status Pending
36. 2014-05-09
    listed $99,000 Active
37. 2014-05-09
    listed $99,000
38. 2006-10-31
    historical
39. 2006-06-11
    listed $327,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$3,885
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,963
• − Management: −$3,963
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable income: $14,389
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,453
• After-tax cash flow: $14,202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,190
• Household income: $159,235
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 714.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 399.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-20.8% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2026-05-19 Pending — SDMLS
• 2026-05-10 Listed $259,000 SDMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $239,000 SDMLS
• 2025-10-04 Listed $249,000 SDMLS
• 2025-07-11 Sold (MLS) $98,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-27 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $169,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $169,900 CRMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-11-02 Price Changed $199,900 CRMLS
• 2024-09-27 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-09-05 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-08-09 Price Changed $219,000 CRMLS
• 2024-07-21 Price Changed $229,000 CRMLS
• 2024-05-09 Listed $249,000 CRMLS
• 2024-05-04 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2024-04-30 Listed $189,900 CRMLS
• 2023-11-16 Sold (MLS) $235,000 CRMLS
• 2023-11-09 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-10-25 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-10-19 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2023-08-10 Listed $250,000 CRMLS
• 2023-08-05 Coming Soon $250,000 CRMLS
• 2014-08-01 Sold (MLS) $99,000 SDMLS
• 2014-08-01 Sold (MLS) $99,000 CRMLS
• 2014-07-04 Pending — SDMLS
• 2014-05-09 Listed $99,000 SDMLS
• 2014-05-09 Listed $99,000 CRMLS
• 2006-10-31 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2006-06-11 Listed $327,000 SDMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2013): $156 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.