15611 E State Fair Ave · Detroit, MI 48205

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 848 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1948 5,227 sqft lot $47/sqft · 29% below area Est $62k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom, 1-bath home offering strong potential for the right buyer. Property is in need of repairs and updates and is being sold as-is, where-is. The home is currently occupied by a non-paying tenant, and buyer will assume responsibility for possession. Ideal opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value through renovation. No repairs will be made by seller.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1948

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $39,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$61,679) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $726 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.1% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 373 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 21 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $40k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.94%
• DSCR: 4.47
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $61,679
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -35.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16026 Eastburn St	0.31mi	4/1.0 (+1)	874 (+3%)	4mo	$62,600	$72	72
15825 Eastburn St	0.23mi	3/1.0	928 (+9%)	3mo	$77,000	$83	71
16107 Manning St	0.37mi	3/1.0	925 (+9%)	2mo	$61,000	$66	66
15834 Novara St	0.32mi	3/1.0	929 (+10%)	4mo	$90,000	$97	66
16039 Fairmount Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0	957 (+13%)	4mo	$19,000	$20	61
16209 Tacoma St	0.39mi	3/1.0	968 (+14%)	1mo	$62,900	$65	58
16277 Liberal St	0.48mi	3/1.0	945 (+11%)	1mo	$25,000	$26	58
16301 Coram St	0.56mi	3/1.0	929 (+10%)	1mo	$19,500	$21	57
18591 Kingsville St	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	824 (-3%)	1mo	$74,000	$90	55
16062 CARLISLE St	0.51mi	3/1.0	957 (+13%)	1mo	$42,000	$44	54
16062 Carlisle St	0.51mi	3/1.0	957 (+13%)	1mo	$42,000	$44	54
18567 Woodside Rd	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (+13%)	3mo	$65,000	$68	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $37,601
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.49×
• Total profit: $83,725
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48205

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,333 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,216/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $726

Break-even live

Break-even rent $414

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16225 Manning St Detroit, MI	4.0	2.0	1036	$1,475	$1.42	44d	1	0.44mi
15663 Carlisle St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	803	$1,050	$1.31	15d	1	0.44mi
15909 Maddelein St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	894	$1,266	$1.42	44d	1	0.50mi
16291 Eastburn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,364	$1.36	24d	1	0.51mi
16410 Edmore Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	15d	1	0.59mi
16212 Maddelein St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	12d	1	0.61mi
14461 Lappin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	989	$1,150	$1.16	17d	1	0.78mi
12716 Riad St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	974	$1,275	$1.31	17d	1	0.91mi
15494 Mapleridge St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	937	$1,275	$1.36	44d	1	0.97mi
14068 Carlisle St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,300	$1.27	24d	1	0.98mi
19152 Woodside St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	1.0	916	$1,500	$1.64	17d	1	1.06mi
19144 Moross Rd Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	44d	1	1.10mi
12201 Morang Ave Unit 8 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	610	$875	$1.43	44d	1	1.15mi
12075 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,245	$1.13	15d	1	1.19mi
12075 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,245	$1.13	44d	1	1.19mi
19365 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	4.0	1.5	996	$1,650	$1.66	15d	1	1.20mi
13669 Pfent St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1031	$1,374	$1.33	17d	1	1.22mi
15010 Cedargrove St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1018	$1,350	$1.33	44d	1	1.26mi
19442 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	17d	1	1.28mi
20215 Schoenherr St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	18d	1	1.29mi
11776 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	964	$1,150	$1.19	11d	1	1.31mi
20227 Pelkey St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	968	$1,350	$1.39	17d	1	1.35mi
19661 Kenosha St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	24d	1	1.38mi
11611 Morang Ave Detroit, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	709	$1,040	$1.47	44d	1	1.38mi
19639 Moross Rd Unit 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	44d	1	1.39mi
20242 Hickory St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	747	$1,300	$1.74	11d	1	1.39mi
11529 Roxbury St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	12d	1	1.42mi
13501 Vernon Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	24d	1	1.45mi
20027 Alcoy St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,349	$1.35	17d	1	1.45mi
19220 Alcoy St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1023	$1,350	$1.32	17d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $39,900 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-02-11
    listed $39,900 Active 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    3-bedroom, 1-bath home offering strong potential for the right buyer. Property is in need of repairs and updates and is being sold as-is, where-is. The home is currently occupied by a non-paying tenant, and buyer will assume responsibility for possession. Ideal opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value through renovation. No repairs will be made by seller.

14. 2026-02-11
    listed $39,900 Active 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    3-bedroom, 1-bath home offering strong potential for the right buyer. Property is in need of repairs and updates and is being sold as-is, where-is. The home is currently occupied by a non-paying tenant, and buyer will assume responsibility for possession. Ideal opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value through renovation. No repairs will be made by seller.

15. 2024-10-01
    historical
16. 2024-09-30
    historical
17. 2024-05-29
    price $41,500
18. 2024-05-28
    price $41,500
19. 2024-03-28
    listed $45,000 Active
20. 2024-03-28
    listed $45,000 Active
21. 2021-01-15
    soldstatus $18,000 Sold
22. 2021-01-15
    soldstatus $18,000 Closed
23. 2020-11-14
    status Pending
24. 2020-11-14
    status Pending
25. 2020-11-10
    listed $20,000 Active
26. 2020-11-10
    listed $20,000 Active
27. 2008-12-19
    soldstatus $2,750
28. 2008-12-08
    soldstatus $2,750
29. 2008-12-08
    soldstatus $2,750
30. 2008-11-17
    historical
31. 2008-10-30
    listed $2,750
32. 2008-10-29
    historical
33. 2008-08-29
    listed $2,750
34. 2008-05-30
    historical
35. 2008-05-09
    listed $4,750
36. 2008-04-29
    historical
37. 2008-04-28
    listed $4,750
38. 2008-04-28
    historical
39. 2008-04-28
    listed $4,750
40. 2008-03-04
    listed $9,500
41. 2007-12-13
    historical
42. 2007-11-30
    listed $9,500
43. 2007-10-19
    historical
44. 2007-09-19
    listed $9,900
45. 2007-09-19
    historical
46. 2007-08-17
    listed $17,900
47. 2007-08-15
    historical
48. 2007-07-15
    listed $34,900
49. 2007-06-06
    historical
50. 2007-03-29
    listed $34,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,216 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,216 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$1,216
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,279
• − Management: −$1,279
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $8,623
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,069
• After-tax cash flow: $6,639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 34,187
• Household income: $38,966
• Rent vs Own: 49.4% rent · 50.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 93% White 3% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.80%
• Current HPI: 235.0926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+29.1% since first listed

51 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Listed $39,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-11 Listed $39,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-10-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-09-30 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-05-29 Price Changed $41,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-28 Price Changed $41,500 REALCOMP
• 2024-03-28 Listed $45,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-03-28 Listed $45,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-01-15 Sold (MLS) $18,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-01-15 Sold (MLS) $18,000 REALCOMP
• 2020-11-14 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-11-14 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2020-11-10 Listed $20,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-11-10 Listed $20,000 REALCOMP
• 2008-12-19 Sold (MLS) $2,750 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-12-08 Sold (MLS) $2,750 REALCOMP
• 2008-12-08 Sold (MLS) $2,750 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-11-17 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-10-30 Listed $2,750 REALCOMP
• 2008-10-29 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2008-08-29 Listed $2,750 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-05-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-05-09 Listed $4,750 REALCOMP
• 2008-04-29 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2008-04-28 Listed $4,750 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-04-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-04-28 Listed $4,750 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-03-04 Listed $9,500 REALCOMP
• 2007-12-13 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2007-11-30 Listed $9,500 REALCOMP
• 2007-10-19 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2007-09-19 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2007-09-19 Listed $9,900 REALCOMP
• 2007-08-17 Listed $17,900 REALCOMP
• 2007-08-15 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2007-07-15 Listed $34,900 REALCOMP
• 2007-06-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2007-03-29 Listed $34,900 REALCOMP
• 2007-03-28 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-12-29 Listed $38,500 REALCOMP
• 2005-02-25 Sold (MLS) $16,211 REALCOMP
• 2004-05-21 Listed $32,000 REALCOMP
• 2000-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2000-08-22 Sold (MLS) $65,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2000-08-03 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1999-10-12 Listed $65,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1997-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $31,053 Public Records
• 1995-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 1995-05-26 Sold (MLS) $29,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1995-03-20 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1995-01-21 Listed $30,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,216 · -8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.