3245 Mercer Dr · Royse City, TX 75189

$323,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,022 sqft · Other · 344 Days on market

Built 2025 $160/sqft · at area comps Est $326k · at est. ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Cheyenne plan offers an open layout with a gorgeous California kitchen and a large island. Keep things neat with a mudroom off of the laundry room, and enjoy the spacious owner#8217;s suite with a large walk-in closet.

Key facts

• California kitchen
• Laundry room
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• CALIFORNIA KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• MUDROOM
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $324k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($402/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.2% in Royse City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#158 in TX, #4,292 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Royse City ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #266 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1301 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 344 days — a 12% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,444 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 344 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.44%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,648
• List price: $323,999
• Delta: 2.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-57,803
• Equity at exit: $48,309

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-76,348
• Equity at exit: $28,014

Cash invested: $90,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75189

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1301
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,484 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,699
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,142/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,442

Max offer price $323,999

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $217	-5% $125	+0% $33	+5% $-58	+10% $-150
Rent	-10% $-163	-5% $-65	+0% $33	+5% $132	+10% $230
Rate	-1.0pp $197	-0.5pp $116	base $33	+0.5pp $-50	+1.0pp $-136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,000
• Closing costs: $9,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3270 Timineri Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2239	$2,500	$1.12	0d	1	0.08mi
4005 Bailey Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2036	$2,250	$1.11	3d	1	0.19mi
4016 Berry Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2681	$2,900	$1.08	45d	1	0.20mi
1021 Peach St Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,200	$0.78	45d	1	0.44mi
917 Orchid Blvd Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,895	$1.16	45d	1	0.49mi
908 Matthew Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2640	$2,350	$0.89	0d	1	0.52mi
3324 Wildwood Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	3.5	2765	$2,950	$1.07	0d	1	0.54mi
2909 Marsha Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1702	$2,900	$1.70	3d	1	0.56mi
2701 Redwood St Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1816	$2,100	$1.16	6d	1	0.61mi
2712 Redwood St Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2580	$2,000	$0.78	18d	1	0.62mi
2704 Redwood St Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1760	$1,850	$1.05	23d	1	0.63mi
2717 Marsha Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2416	$1,925	$0.80	22d	1	0.63mi
725 Orchid Blvd Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,795	$1.15	45d	1	0.64mi
2801 Spencer Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2416	$1,861	$0.77	0d	1	0.71mi
3108 Overstreet Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,899	$1.13	4d	1	0.71mi
712 Preston Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1965	$1,895	$0.96	4d	1	0.80mi
3140 Overlook Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,200	$1.18	45d	1	0.93mi
3136 Overlook Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2046	$2,295	$1.12	4d	1	0.93mi
3136 Overlook Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2046	$2,295	$1.12	45d	1	0.93mi
207 Gardenia Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1830	$2,195	$1.20	25d	1	1.02mi
426 Oleander Dr Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	2126	$2,495	$1.17	25d	1	1.03mi
513 Redbud Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1830	$2,050	$1.12	45d	1	1.04mi
430 Oleander Dr Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	2039	$2,350	$1.15	45d	1	1.04mi
208 Sunny Corner Rd Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$1,695	$0.95	21d	1	1.05mi
525 Redbud Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	2147	$2,395	$1.12	45d	1	1.07mi
3178 Wind Knot Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1798	$2,150	$1.20	16d	1	1.13mi
523 Francis Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2029	$2,299	$1.13	45d	1	1.14mi
3122 Wind Knot Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.5	2378	$3,000	$1.26	45d	1	1.17mi
552 Firethorn Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1830	$2,350	$1.28	0d	1	1.19mi
3213 Shady River Trl Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1858	$1,849	$1.00	23d	1	1.20mi
2031 Roaring Fork Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1861	$2,495	$1.34	6d	1	1.23mi
4069 Anglers Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2492	$2,650	$1.06	45d	1	1.26mi
3003 Wind Knot Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.5	2386	$2,950	$1.24	21d	1	1.26mi
4023 Anglers Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.5	2122	$2,900	$1.37	6d	1	1.28mi
6105 Poolside Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	2463	$2,600	$1.06	45d	1	1.35mi
7015 Hopper Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,300	$1.05	45d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $323,999 Active 344 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $333,999 Active 341 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $333,999 Active 340 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $333,999 Active 339 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $333,999 Active 338 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $333,999 Active 336 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $333,999 Active 332 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $333,999 Active 331 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $333,999 Active 330 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $344,999 Active 327 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $344,999 Active 326 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $344,999 Active 325 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $344,999 Active 324 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $344,999 Active 323 DOM
15. 2026-01-29
    price $344,999 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    The Cheyenne plan offers an open layout with a gorgeous California kitchen and a large island. Keep things neat with a mudroom off of the laundry room, and enjoy the spacious owner#8217;s suite with a large walk-in closet.

16. 2025-07-12
    listed $373,194 Active 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    The Cheyenne plan offers an open layout with a gorgeous California kitchen and a large island. Keep things neat with a mudroom off of the laundry room, and enjoy the spacious owner#8217;s suite with a large walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,142 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,929 · $494/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,787/yr (+$399/mo · 419.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,149
• − Property taxes: −$1,142
• − Insurance: −$1,620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,385
• − Management: −$2,385
• − Depreciation: −$9,425
• Taxable loss: −$5,293
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,270
• After-tax cash flow: $1,672/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royse City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838220
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $73,810
• Composite: 38.44/100
• National rank: #4197
• State rank: #266 of 826 in TX

Livability — Royse City

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #158
• US rank: #4292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rockwall County · 132,930 people
• City population: 48,739
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,739
• Household income: $117,125
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 569.0

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.10%
• Current HPI: 212.8422
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $344,999 Zillow
• 2025-07-12 Listed $373,194 Zillow

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,142 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.