5411 S Jefferson Ave · Springfield, MO 65810

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,573 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1995 0.27 ac lot Est $278k · at est. $3/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ALL brick home on the Southside in the highly sought-after Kickapoo school district and within walking distance to Cherokee school, With a Pool! The exterior has been tastefully updated with a modern look, clean landscaping, and great curb appeal and no neighbors behind. Inside, you'll find beautiful wood floors, high ceilings, tons of natural light, a formal dining area, a large open living space, and a fireplace that makes it all feel extra inviting. The kitchen is bright and fresh with white cabinetry and pantry space. The primary suite offers a walk-in shower, tub, dual sinks, and walk-in closet. And just in time for summer, the pool is ready, brand new motor pump, heat pump new 4 year

Key facts

• Great curb appeal
• Brick home
• Pool

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• KICKAPOO SCHOOL DISTRICT
• POOL
• CLEAN LANDSCAPING
• GREAT CURB APPEAL
• NO NEIGHBORS BEHIND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $30 annual fee (approx. $2.50/month)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Vinyl siding and brick exterior
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Patio; Privacy wood fencing (full); In-ground pool; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Free‑standing electric oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Disposal; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Attic fan
• Interior features: Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); High-speed internet; Insulated double-pane windows; Living room gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-14/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cherokee Middle (math 50% / reading 62%, grade B-, #40 of 391 statewide, top 10%, 758 students, 27% FRL); Kickapoo High (math 39% / reading 66%, grade C-, #89 of 521 statewide, top 17%, 1,881 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 27% FRL vs 46% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 39% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Springfield R-XII average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,213 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $278,421
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5411 S Jefferson Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,601 (+2%)	1mo	$289,000	$181	96
5567 S Jefferson Ave	0.20mi	3/3.0	1,530 (-3%)	1mo	$249,000	$163	82
5645 S Jefferson Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,612 (+2%)	6mo	$247,500	$154	78
5678 S Fairview Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,472 (-6%)	3mo	$289,900	$197	65
1120 E Oak Tree Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,545 (-2%)	4mo	$250,000	$162	59
5795 S Wedgewood Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-2%)	10mo	$329,900	$215	57
1052 E Oak Tree Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,468 (-7%)	3mo	$259,900	$177	55
5827 S Farm Road 157	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-11%)	3mo	$239,900	$172	53
5537 S Pinehurst Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+3%)	8mo	$299,000	$185	53
5700 S Clay Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,806 (+15%)	3mo	$240,000	$133	50
5496 S Stonegate Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,717 (+9%)	4mo	$285,000	$166	50
5513 S Maryland Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,725 (+10%)	10mo	$320,000	$186	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-48,063
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-46,659
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65810

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,252 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,696/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,254

Max offer price $288,797

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $162	-5% $81	+0% $-1	+5% $-83	+10% $-165
Rent	-10% $-179	-5% $-90	+0% $-1	+5% $88	+10% $177
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $72	base $-1	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
565 W Bryant Springfield, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	891	$1,621	$1.82	14d	4	0.46mi
5305 S Michigan Ave Springfield, MO	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1644	$2,017	$1.23	14d	3	0.52mi
5100 S Main Ave Springfield, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,275	$1.38	14d	1	0.58mi
1182 E Evans St Springfield, MO	4.0	3.0	2032	$2,595	$1.28	14d	1	0.82mi
4730 S Robberson Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0–2.0	807	$1,195	$1.48	45d	7	0.87mi
5955 S Farm Road 163 Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1703	$3,440	$2.02	14d	8	0.94mi
5955 S National Ave Unit 163 Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1630	$3,995	$2.45	45d	1	0.97mi
1504 W High Point Cir Springfield, MO	3.0	2.5	2031	$1,925	$0.95	24d	1	1.15mi
1367 E Siler Pkwy Springfield, MO	2.0	2.5	2045	$2,695	$1.32	14d	1	1.17mi
1261 E Lakewood St Springfield, MO	4.0	2.5	1800	$1,595	$0.89	14d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $289,000 Active
3. 2017-03-28
   listed $155,000
4. 2007-02-13
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,696 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,803 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,107/yr (+$92/mo · 65.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$1,696
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,162
• − Management: −$2,162
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$5,072
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,217
• After-tax cash flow: $1,203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 22,137
• Household income: $95,160
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Vietnam, China, Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.67%
• Current HPI: 194.8736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+86.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-23 Listed $289,000 SOMO
• 2017-03-28 Listed $155,000 SOMO
• 2007-02-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,696 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.