5170 Grand Ave #38 · Dunes City, OR 97439

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 845 sqft · Manufactured · 60 Days on market

Built 1971 $107/sqft · 27% below area Est $124k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located at the far end of an all-ages park, this recently updated home offers a peaceful setting surrounded by trees and natural beauty. The property sits next to a large open lawn, adding extra space and a quiet, private feel. Inside you’ll find fresh interior paint and brand new carpet. The exterior has just been freshly painted and features brand new skirting. Plenty of parking available and tool shed for additional storage. Enjoy a friendly community atmosphere just minutes from downtown Florence, with easy access to local camping, shops, recreation, and the Oregon coast. Buyer must be approved by park prior to closing.

Key facts

• Brand new skirting
• Plenty of parking
• Large open lawn

Tags

• LARGE OPEN LAWN
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• BRAND NEW CARPET
• FRESHLY PAINTED EXTERIOR
• BRAND NEW SKIRTING
• PLENTY OF PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $735 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 1.3% in Dunes City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#216 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Siuslaw SD 97J (town): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #106 of 183 in OR (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $90k implies a 260% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $87,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.00%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $124,000
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -27.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.80×
• Total profit: $95,851
• Equity at exit: $81,079

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.8%
• Equity multiple: 10.74×
• Total profit: $245,506
• Equity at exit: $174,850

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97439

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,718 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $735

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $797	-5% $766	+0% $735	+5% $704	+10% $673
Rent	-10% $599	-5% $667	+0% $735	+5% $803	+10% $871
Rate	-1.0pp $780	-0.5pp $758	base $735	+0.5pp $712	+1.0pp $688

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $90,000 Pending 60 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $90,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-04-08
   status Active 637-char remark

   Show marketing remark (637 chars)

   Located at the far end of an all-ages park, this recently updated home offers a peaceful setting surrounded by trees and natural beauty. The property sits next to a large open lawn, adding extra space and a quiet, private feel. Inside you’ll find fresh interior paint and brand new carpet. The exterior has just been freshly painted and features brand new skirting. Plenty of parking available and tool shed for additional storage. Enjoy a friendly community atmosphere just minutes from downtown Florence, with easy access to local camping, shops, recreation, and the Oregon coast. Buyer must be approved by park prior to closing.

4. 2026-03-29
   status Pending 637-char remark

   Show marketing remark (637 chars)

   Located at the far end of an all-ages park, this recently updated home offers a peaceful setting surrounded by trees and natural beauty. The property sits next to a large open lawn, adding extra space and a quiet, private feel. Inside you’ll find fresh interior paint and brand new carpet. The exterior has just been freshly painted and features brand new skirting. Plenty of parking available and tool shed for additional storage. Enjoy a friendly community atmosphere just minutes from downtown Florence, with easy access to local camping, shops, recreation, and the Oregon coast. Buyer must be approved by park prior to closing.

5. 2026-03-21
   listed $90,000 Active 637-char remark

   Show marketing remark (637 chars)

   Located at the far end of an all-ages park, this recently updated home offers a peaceful setting surrounded by trees and natural beauty. The property sits next to a large open lawn, adding extra space and a quiet, private feel. Inside you’ll find fresh interior paint and brand new carpet. The exterior has just been freshly painted and features brand new skirting. Plenty of parking available and tool shed for additional storage. Enjoy a friendly community atmosphere just minutes from downtown Florence, with easy access to local camping, shops, recreation, and the Oregon coast. Buyer must be approved by park prior to closing.

6. 2018-07-31
   soldstatus $25,000 Sold 335-char remark

   Show marketing remark (335 chars)

   Great location in Big Spruce next to the common area. Family park with no age restrictions. This mobile only has almost 1400 sq. ft with 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, a separate laundry room and much more. Carport along the side and a 13x25 storage shed. Open lawn common area adjacent.Must be pre qualified by park. Current monthly rent is $415

7. 2018-07-09
   status Pending 335-char remark

   Show marketing remark (335 chars)

   Great location in Big Spruce next to the common area. Family park with no age restrictions. This mobile only has almost 1400 sq. ft with 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, a separate laundry room and much more. Carport along the side and a 13x25 storage shed. Open lawn common area adjacent.Must be pre qualified by park. Current monthly rent is $415

8. 2018-05-22
   listed $32,000 Active 335-char remark

   Show marketing remark (335 chars)

   Great location in Big Spruce next to the common area. Family park with no age restrictions. This mobile only has almost 1400 sq. ft with 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, a separate laundry room and much more. Carport along the side and a 13x25 storage shed. Open lawn common area adjacent.Must be pre qualified by park. Current monthly rent is $415

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥77°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,649
• − Management: −$1,649
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $7,854
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,885
• After-tax cash flow: $6,934/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Siuslaw SD 97J
• NCES district ID: 4105100
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,892
• Composite: 36.82/100
• National rank: #9169
• State rank: #106 of 183 in OR

Livability — Dunes City

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #14748

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,643

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.79%
• Current HPI: 717.84
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+181.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-03-29 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $90,000 RMLS
• 2018-07-31 Sold (MLS) $25,000 RMLS
• 2018-07-09 Pending — RMLS
• 2018-05-22 Listed $32,000 RMLS