952 Willard St · Gary, IN 46404

$127,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1928 7,560 sqft lot Est $175k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remodeled 3 bedroom / 2 bath ranch home on double lot with full basement. This home has a main bedroom with attached bath and walk in closet. The kitchen is fresh with newer white cabinets, glass and ceramic back splash, ceiling fan and stainless appliances. The two newly remodeled bathrooms have ceramic flooring. The entire home has been freshly redone with trendy colors and new flooring throughout. The full unfinished basement is there for storage or to use as you please. Attached garage, low taxes, freshly paved asphalt driveway, new furnace and water heater!

Key facts

• Sizable yard
• Accessible location
• Functional layout

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• AMPLE CABINET STORAGE
• SIZABLE YARD
• ACCESSIBLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Vacant at time of listing

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; Driveway; Garage with approximately 1.5 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: One-story home; Built in 1928
• Construction: Has unfinished basement
• Exterior features: No notable view

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Basement with interior entry (unfinished)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $501 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $124k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 9.1% in Gary — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.6%/yr); 67 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,816/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 800% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $884 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $124,063 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.79%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,104
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1035 Willard St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,808 (-1%)	1mo	$230,000	$127	92
4040 W 11th Ave	0.17mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,874 (+3%)	10mo	$131,300	$70	72
1335 Williams St	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,824 (0%)	5mo	$169,900	$93	71
709 Porter St	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,910 (+5%)	2mo	$100,000	$52	68
1539 Whitcomb St	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,872 (+3%)	5mo	$235,000	$126	62
4429 W 13th Ave	0.40mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,700 (-7%)	3mo	$71,999	$42	59
1166 Noble St	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,604 (-12%)	2mo	$153,500	$96	53
4413 W 15th Ave	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,560 (-14%)	14mo	$183,000	$117	39
2952 W 10th Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	2,052 (+12%)	9mo	$68,000	$33	38
608 Clark Rd	0.49mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,574 (-14%)	14mo	$95,000	$60	36
1735 Hendricks St	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,090 (+15%)	8mo	$230,900	$110	30
1774 Noble St	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,620 (-11%)	12mo	$232,500	$144	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $20,838
• Equity at exit: $19,070

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $103,153
• Equity at exit: $11,058

Cash invested: $35,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46404

• Home prices YoY: -4.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,816 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,518/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $501

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,182

Max offer price $127,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,975
• Closing costs: $3,837
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4429 W 13th Ave Gary, IN	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	7d	1	0.39mi
1348 Waite St Gary, IN	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,850	$1.04	1d	1	0.67mi
1368 Waite St Gary, IN	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,800	$1.06	1d	1	0.68mi
395 Porter St Gary, IN	4.0	2.0	1472	$1,700	$1.15	6d	1	0.77mi
1125 Dallas St Gary, IN	2.0	2.5	1872	$2,200	$1.18	1d	1	1.13mi
373 Taft Pl Gary, IN	4.0	2.0	1984	$1,800	$0.91	44d	1	1.31mi
2157 Marshall Pl Gary, IN	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,295	$0.78	44d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $127,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $127,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $127,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $127,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $127,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $127,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $127,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $127,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $127,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $127,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $127,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    status Active
16. 2026-04-25
    status Pending
17. 2026-04-17
    listed $134,900 Active
18. 2026-01-01
    historical
19. 2025-08-28
    listed $135,000 Active
20. 2025-04-14
    historical $1,300
21. 2025-04-04
    listed $1,300
22. 2021-08-09
    soldstatus $95,000 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    Remodeled 3 bedroom / 2 bath ranch home on double lot with full basement. This home has a main bedroom with attached bath and walk in closet. The kitchen is fresh with newer white cabinets, glass and ceramic back splash, ceiling fan and stainless appliances. The two newly remodeled bathrooms have ceramic flooring. The entire home has been freshly redone with trendy colors and new flooring throughout. The full unfinished basement is there for storage or to use as you please. Attached garage, low taxes, freshly paved asphalt driveway, new furnace and water heater!

23. 2021-05-19
    listed $89,000 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    Remodeled 3 bedroom / 2 bath ranch home on double lot with full basement. This home has a main bedroom with attached bath and walk in closet. The kitchen is fresh with newer white cabinets, glass and ceramic back splash, ceiling fan and stainless appliances. The two newly remodeled bathrooms have ceramic flooring. The entire home has been freshly redone with trendy colors and new flooring throughout. The full unfinished basement is there for storage or to use as you please. Attached garage, low taxes, freshly paved asphalt driveway, new furnace and water heater!

24. 2001-06-08
    historical
25. 2001-05-09
    listed $33,630

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,518 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,518 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,164
• − Property taxes: −$2,518
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,744
• − Management: −$1,744
• − Depreciation: −$3,721
• Taxable income: $4,265
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,024
• After-tax cash flow: $4,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 15,428
• Household income: $42,256
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 800.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% White 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.76%
• Current HPI: 252.6463
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.62%
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+301.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Relisted — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $134,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-28 Listed $135,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-14 Rental Removed $1,300 RENTLY
• 2025-04-04 Listed for Rent $1,300 RENTLY
• 2021-08-09 Sold (MLS) $95,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-19 Listed $89,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-06-08 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-05-09 Listed $33,630 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+19.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,518 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.