5223 Grace Point Ln · Houston, TX 77048

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 978 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1970 6,381 sqft lot Est $135k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 5223 Grace Point Drive in Crestmont Park! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home, lovingly passed down through one family since 1970, offers timeless charm and character in a well-established, friendly neighborhood. Sun-filled living spaces create a warm, inviting atmosphere, while the generous backyard provides plenty of room to relax, entertain, garden, or play. With mature landscaping and a quiet street, the home combines comfort and privacy with endless possibilities for personalization. Perfect for first-time buyers, families, or investors, it’s conveniently located near shopping, dining, parks, and major roadways, offering both the tranquility of an established community and eas

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Mature landscaping
• Generous backyard

Tags

• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• QUIET STREET
• WELL-ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($367/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Sterling H S (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,421 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 303 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.01%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $134,964
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5223 Grace Point Ln	0.00mi	3/1.0	978 (0%)	1mo	$130,000	$133	99
5011 Brisbane Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,049 (+7%)	1mo	$110,000	$105	60
5135 Fairgreen Ln	0.60mi	3/1.0	938 (-4%)	6mo	$151,500	$162	60
5526 Elm Springs Dr	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	989 (+1%)	20mo	$118,750	$120	58
5622 Canterway Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,018 (+4%)	16mo	$140,000	$138	54
4818 Holloway Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0	996 (+2%)	15mo	$179,900	$181	53
5714 Peacock St	0.68mi	3/1.0	932 (-5%)	15mo	$120,000	$129	48
4911 Brisbane Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,078 (+10%)	13mo	$150,000	$139	46
5503 Ricky St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,102 (+13%)	5mo	$110,000	$100	42
11423 Roandale Drive Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,104 (+13%)	12mo	$185,000	$168	40
10225 Teneha Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	932 (-5%)	16mo	$124,000	$133	39
9310 St Lo Rd	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,099 (+12%)	13mo	$169,000	$154	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 1.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $12,647
• Equity at exit: $55,633

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $42,753
• Equity at exit: $83,605

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77048

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,328 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$283 /mo · $3,391/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,289

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	3d	1	0.58mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 5659 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	11d	1	0.58mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 421 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	5d	1	0.58mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	8d	1	0.58mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,081	$1.02	3d	1	0.58mi
11911 Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	701	$1,050	$1.50	8d	1	0.66mi
11917 Martin Luther King Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	805	$1,025	$1.27	19d	1	0.77mi
11917 Martin Luther King Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	805	$1,025	$1.27	22d	1	0.77mi
4322 Groton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	858	$1,395	$1.63	44d	1	0.87mi
5425 E Orem Dr Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,472	$1.42	4d	13	1.05mi
4923 Paula St Apt 2 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	3d	1	1.11mi
5038 Carmen St Apt 1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	3d	1	1.16mi
5010 Carmen St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	44d	1	1.19mi
5042 Mallow St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$995	$1.48	5d	1	1.35mi
6160 Madden Ln Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	911	$1,209	$1.33	4d	267	1.42mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-21
   status Active
4. 2026-03-15
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
6. 2026-03-04
   listed $130,000 Active
7. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,391 · $283/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,391 · $283/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,934
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$3,391
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,275
• − Management: −$1,275
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$1,720
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$413
• After-tax cash flow: $779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,151
• Household income: $56,747
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 266.4468
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,391 · -11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.