9010 Maiden Ln · Aripeka, FL 34679

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1960 0.45 ac lot ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Must see-ARIPEKA Fishing Village wonderfully maintained nicely sized 3/2 with office (could be 4th bedroom if closet added) and carport home; Large eat in kitchen with separate dining room, inside laundry and two living areas, one with with fireplace and an additional large lanai. The land includes a double lot at the end of a cul de sac with almost one FULL ACRE which borders wooded SWFMUD land. This home is delightful and also includes a small detached (576 SF) storage ''barn'' which could be converted to a rental. This property has 2 septic tanks and a well for irrigation. The seller also had added a small gardening area behind the barn. If you love seclusion and the beauty of Florida nature, this is the home for you.

Key facts

• Private street
• No backyard neighbor
• Close to gulf

Tags

• NO HOA
• NO BACKYARD NEIGHBOR
• PRESERVE ON WEST SIDE
• LARGE STORAGE OUTBUILDING
• PRIVATE STREET
• CLOSE TO GULF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R2; Lot approximately 0.45 acres (about 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre); Gravel road access
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Has a 1-space carport
• Utilities: Electricity available; Septic tank; No public water listed
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces north
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Exterior storage

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Concrete floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; No central cooling listed
• Interior features: Living room and dining room combined; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $138 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#850 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.12%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $28,284
• Equity at exit: $71,943

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $88,742
• Equity at exit: $110,873

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34679

• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,297/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,823

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $183	+0% $138	+5% $92	+10% $47
Rent	-10% $-20	-5% $59	+0% $138	+5% $217	+10% $296
Rate	-1.0pp $218	-0.5pp $178	base $138	+0.5pp $96	+1.0pp $54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10114 Briar Cir Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,000	$1.31	25d	1	1.13mi
18802 Whiterock Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,995	$1.31	6d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 689-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $160,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,297 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$31/yr (+$3/mo · 2.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,297
• − Insurance: −$5,918
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,918
• − Management: −$1,918
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$697
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$167
• After-tax cash flow: $1,820/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Aripeka

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #850
• US rank: #21736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aripeka, FL
• Population (ZIP): 131

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $194,900 Public Records
• 2018-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $153,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-19 Sold (MLS) $153,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2018-04-19 Sold (MLS) $153,000 HCAR
• 2018-04-19 Sold (MLS) $153,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-08 Listed $154,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-01 Listed $154,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2017-12-01 Listed $154,900 HCAR
• 2012-11-01 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2012-11-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-20 Listed $135,000 HCAR
• 2011-08-31 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-01 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-02 Listed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-22 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,297 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.