21600 Pierce Cv #103 · Lago Vista, TX 78645

$310,000

None bd · None ba · 1,200 sqft · Condo

Built 2026 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1.78 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a condo listed at $310k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-812 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (32.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (40.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (40.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 2.2% in Lago Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#275 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lago Vista ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #269 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1100 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,183 (40.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.23%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-101,901
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.79×
• Total profit: $-155,078
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78645

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1100
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,842 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$388 /mo · $4,650/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-812

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,870

Max offer price $192,460

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-598	-5% $-705	+0% $-812	+5% $-919	+10% $-1,027
Rent	-10% $-958	-5% $-885	+0% $-812	+5% $-740	+10% $-667
Rate	-1.0pp $-656	-0.5pp $-733	base $-812	+0.5pp $-893	+1.0pp $-974

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21513 Pershing Ave Unit A Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,625	$1.26	12d	1	0.13mi
3404 American Dr Lago Vista, TX	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1015	$2,200	$2.17	44d	2	0.22mi
3404 American Dr #3202 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1188	$2,200	$1.85	2d	1	0.22mi
21201 Portsmouth Cv Unit 5 Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1284	$1,850	$1.44	18d	1	0.34mi
21201 Portsmouth Cv Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1289	$1,795	$1.39	44d	1	0.34mi
21200 Portsmouth Cv Unit 1 Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1383	$1,995	$1.44	13d	1	0.37mi
21423 Patton Ave Unit B Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,289	$0.99	12d	1	0.41mi
21425 Patton Ave Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1240	$1,750	$1.41	21d	1	0.42mi
21501 Patton Ave Unit B Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1224	$1,650	$1.35	13d	1	0.42mi
21501 Patton Ave Unit B Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1224	$1,650	$1.35	25d	1	0.42mi
21101 Boggy Ford Rd Lago Vista, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$1,240	$1.27	2d	11	0.46mi
2500 American Dr Unit B Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,800	$1.42	25d	1	0.64mi
21604 Boggy Ford Rd Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,750	$1.18	18d	1	0.74mi
21635 Boggy Ford Rd Unit A Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1077	$1,595	$1.48	12d	1	0.96mi
21637 Boggy Ford Rd Apt B Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	18d	1	0.97mi
21013 Highland Lake Dr Unit D93 Lago Vista, TX	1.0	2.0	744	$1,075	$1.44	44d	1	1.11mi
21107 Highland Lake Dr #3 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	976	$1,350	$1.38	44d	1	1.17mi
2301 Hancock Ave #3 Leander, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,350	$1.57	21d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$4,650
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,768
• − Management: −$1,768
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$15,517
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,724
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,023/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This multi-family property requires extensive repairs, particularly a major roof replacement, to become move-in ready and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be missing or damaged, indicating a major repair is needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — Replacing the roof is a critical repair that will improve both the resale and rental value of the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof appears to be missing or damaged, indicating a major repair is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$15,000–50,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — Replacing the roof is a critical repair that will improve both the resale and rental value of the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lago Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826400
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,671
• Composite: 38.35/100
• National rank: #4216
• State rank: #269 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lago Vista

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #6393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lago Vista, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 15,256
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,256
• Household income: $113,008
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.02%
• Current HPI: 211.9678
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B