634 Bird Bay Dr E #201 · Venice, FL 34285

$170,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,062 sqft · Condo public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1983 $592/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom or 2 bdrm. + den unit in popular Bird Bay. Open, airy, bright and well maintained. Newer A. C. plus newer kitchen w/ smooth top stove, washer, disposal & newer refrigerator. Bath vanities & shower stall recently updated, newer carpet too and crown molding. Tiled lanai, full size washer and pull down steps for attic storage. You will enjoy Venices' most popular and active condo community with heated pools (5) and large new clubhouse, shuffleboard, tennis, golf, exersize room, lush landscaping, lakes and natural wonders. Bike and hiking trails and easy access to Venices' new gem; Legacy Trail and all nearby. Shopping, dining, grocery all within walking distance. Historic downtown Venice and famous beaches just two miles away. Hurry this unit is priced to sell fast. One year home warranty included too. Call today for all the information.

Key facts

• Flexible den study
• Washer and dryer
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• 2ND FLOOR CONDO
• FLEXIBLE DEN STUDY
• CROWN MOLDING
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• SCREENED LANAI
• WASHER AND DRYER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit is offered furnished
• Financial info: Total annual association fees reported $7,104; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Bird Bay Condominium Association and Bird Bay Community Association); Monthly condo fee $592 (quarterly condo fees reported $1,776); Association fees include cable TV, pool, sewer, water, trash, insurance, maintenance (structure & grounds), management, pest control, private road, recreational facilities, escrow reserves; Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, pickleball courts, basketball court, shuffleboard, recreation facilities; Buyer approval required for association; Pets allowed (cats and dogs with number limit; max pet weight listed as 999)

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking with guest spaces; 1-car carport
• Security: Association-managed common amenities and maintenance
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Condominium in a planned unit development (PUD); 2-story building; unit located on 2nd floor; East-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Building identified as BIRD BAY V / BUILDING 49; Built as residential condominium
• Exterior features: Balcony; Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Sidewalks; Asphalt road access; Fl. friendly/native landscaping; Irrigation equipment; Drip irrigation and reclaimed water for irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (unit on 2nd floor, end unit)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Open floorplan with living/dining combo; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (20.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#129 in FL, #1,925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview Elementary School (math 73% / reading 74%, grade A, #260 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 691 students, 29% FRL); Venice Senior High School (math 67% / reading 61%, grade B-, #86 of 667 statewide, top 13%, 2,584 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 462 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $170k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,557 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.92%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-28,964
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $8,661
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34285

• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 462
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,701/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$592
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,252

Max offer price $135,557

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $592 · $7,104/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $170,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-23
    listed $170,000 Active
17. 2013-10-15
    soldstatus $104,900 868-char remark

    Show marketing remark (868 chars)

    3 bedroom or 2 bdrm. + den unit in popular Bird Bay. Open, airy, bright and well maintained. Newer A. C. plus newer kitchen w/ smooth top stove, washer, disposal & newer refrigerator. Bath vanities & shower stall recently updated, newer carpet too and crown molding. Tiled lanai, full size washer and pull down steps for attic storage. You will enjoy Venices' most popular and active condo community with heated pools (5) and large new clubhouse, shuffleboard, tennis, golf, exersize room, lush landscaping, lakes and natural wonders. Bike and hiking trails and easy access to Venices' new gem; Legacy Trail and all nearby. Shopping, dining, grocery all within walking distance. Historic downtown Venice and famous beaches just two miles away. Hurry this unit is priced to sell fast. One year home warranty included too. Call today for all the information.

18. 2013-10-15
    soldstatus $104,900

    Show marketing remark (868 chars)

    3 bedroom or 2 bdrm. + den unit in popular Bird Bay. Open, airy, bright and well maintained. Newer A. C. plus newer kitchen w/ smooth top stove, washer, disposal & newer refrigerator. Bath vanities & shower stall recently updated, newer carpet too and crown molding. Tiled lanai, full size washer and pull down steps for attic storage. You will enjoy Venices' most popular and active condo community with heated pools (5) and large new clubhouse, shuffleboard, tennis, golf, exersize room, lush landscaping, lakes and natural wonders. Bike and hiking trails and easy access to Venices' new gem; Legacy Trail and all nearby. Shopping, dining, grocery all within walking distance. Historic downtown Venice and famous beaches just two miles away. Hurry this unit is priced to sell fast. One year home warranty included too. Call today for all the information.

19. 2012-10-13
    listed $104,900 868-char remark

    Show marketing remark (868 chars)

    3 bedroom or 2 bdrm. + den unit in popular Bird Bay. Open, airy, bright and well maintained. Newer A. C. plus newer kitchen w/ smooth top stove, washer, disposal & newer refrigerator. Bath vanities & shower stall recently updated, newer carpet too and crown molding. Tiled lanai, full size washer and pull down steps for attic storage. You will enjoy Venices' most popular and active condo community with heated pools (5) and large new clubhouse, shuffleboard, tennis, golf, exersize room, lush landscaping, lakes and natural wonders. Bike and hiking trails and easy access to Venices' new gem; Legacy Trail and all nearby. Shopping, dining, grocery all within walking distance. Historic downtown Venice and famous beaches just two miles away. Hurry this unit is priced to sell fast. One year home warranty included too. Call today for all the information.

20. 2011-06-01
    historical
21. 2011-04-14
    listed $109,900
22. 2011-01-07
    historical
23. 2010-04-20
    listed $124,900
24. 2009-12-17
    historical
25. 2009-08-11
    listed $134,900
26. 2008-12-01
    listed $134,900
27. 2007-11-25
    listed $155,900
28. 2006-10-02
    listed $197,500
29. 2003-12-09
    soldstatus $117,000
30. 2002-01-23
    soldstatus $85,000
31. 1991-03-29
    soldstatus $73,900
32. 1987-07-31
    soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,701 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,701 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,701
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,925
• − Management: −$1,925
• − HOA: −$7,104
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$4,906
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,178
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Venice

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #1925

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Venice, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 86,541
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,677
• Household income: $68,301
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 747.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 5% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -329.42%
• Current HPI: 264.6389
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.78%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+146.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $104,900 Public Records
• 2013-10-15 Sold (MLS) $104,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-13 Listed $104,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-14 Listed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-20 Listed $124,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-11 Listed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-01 Listed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-25 Listed $155,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-02 Listed $197,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 2002-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1991-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $73,900 Public Records
• 1987-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,701 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.