40 Jefferson St · Cattaraugus, NY 14719

$42,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1900 5,445 sqft lot $26/sqft · 67% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 40 Jefferson - make this your one your forever home. Four bedrooms, one bathroom, large living room, formal dining room, first floor laundry and private rear yard.

Key facts

• 5,445 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 133 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $43k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $697 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $43k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#973 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Cattaraugus-Little Valley Central School District (rural): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #460 of 590 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($297 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $43k implies a 230% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $37,752 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.61%
• DSCR: 4.10
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,919
• List price: $42,900
• Delta: -66.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
91 Jefferson St	0.21mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,704 (+1%)	7mo	$185,000	$109	73
5 1st St	0.20mi	4/1.5	1,646 (-2%)	21mo	$69,000	$42	68
87 South St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,833 (+9%)	2mo	$128,000	$70	56
75 Washington St	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-9%)	19mo	$155,000	$101	53
110 Waverly St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (+10%)	6mo	$105,000	$57	52
74 Leavenworth St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+7%)	23mo	$100,000	$56	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 80.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.64×
• Total profit: $67,764
• Equity at exit: $38,648

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.9%
• Equity multiple: 14.71×
• Total profit: $164,691
• Equity at exit: $83,345

Cash invested: $12,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14719

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$225
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$54 /mo · $644/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $697

Break-even live

Break-even rent $375

Max offer price $42,900

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $726	-5% $712	+0% $697	+5% $682	+10% $667
Rent	-10% $597	-5% $647	+0% $697	+5% $746	+10% $796
Rate	-1.0pp $718	-0.5pp $708	base $697	+0.5pp $686	+1.0pp $674

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,725
• Closing costs: $1,287
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-12
   price $42,900 174-char remark

   Show marketing remark (174 chars)

   Welcome to 40 Jefferson - make this your one your forever home. Four bedrooms, one bathroom, large living room, formal dining room, first floor laundry and private rear yard.

2. 2026-04-10
   price $45,900 174-char remark

   Show marketing remark (174 chars)

   Welcome to 40 Jefferson - make this your one your forever home. Four bedrooms, one bathroom, large living room, formal dining room, first floor laundry and private rear yard.

3. 2026-03-10
   price $47,900 174-char remark

   Show marketing remark (174 chars)

   Welcome to 40 Jefferson - make this your one your forever home. Four bedrooms, one bathroom, large living room, formal dining room, first floor laundry and private rear yard.

4. 2026-01-16
   listed $49,900 Active 174-char remark

   Show marketing remark (174 chars)

   Welcome to 40 Jefferson - make this your one your forever home. Four bedrooms, one bathroom, large living room, formal dining room, first floor laundry and private rear yard.

5. 2014-06-04
   soldstatus $13,000
6. 2013-05-15
   listed $35,000
7. 2012-11-14
   listed $37,000
8. 2012-04-09
   listed $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,403
• − Property taxes: −$644
• − Insurance: −$214
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,207
• − Management: −$1,207
• − Depreciation: −$1,248
• Taxable income: $8,165
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,960
• After-tax cash flow: $6,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cattaraugus-Little Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600024
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,623
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4159
• State rank: #460 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cattaraugus

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #973
• US rank: #19013

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cattaraugus, NY
• Population (ZIP): 3,334

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.94%
• Current HPI: 331.9433
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+15.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $42,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $45,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $47,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $49,900 WNYREIS
• 2014-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records
• 2013-05-15 Listed $35,000 WNYREIS
• 2012-11-14 Listed $37,000 WNYREIS
• 2012-04-09 Listed $37,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,844 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.